2020 French Open Betting Picks, Quarterfinal Day 2

October 5, 2020

Half of the semifinalists in this year’s French Open have been decided. Diego Schwartzman will take on Rafael Nadal in one semifinal. The second pair of semifinalists will be decided on Wednesday. Matches between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev, as well as Novak Djokovic and Pablo Carreno-Busta, will be used to determine who will fill out the final four at Roland-Garros. We focus on one of those two matches in this round of French Open betting picks.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Andrey Rublev

Stefanos Tsitsipas enters this match as the slight favorite, despite losing to Andrey Rublev less than two weeks ago in a clay court final in Hamburg. Tsitsipas has made mincemeat of his opponents at Roland-Garros after a first round scare. After beating Spaniard Jaume Munar in five sets, Tsitsipas has won all eight sets he has played from round two on. This includes a straight set win over Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16.

Tsitsipas was not broken against Dimitrov last round. Over his last three matches, he has only broken one time. That break came in the second round against Pablo Cuevas. Against Rublev, he will need a similar performance on his serve. But Rublev’s success at the tour level against Tsitsipas could mean that more trouble is on the way for the Greek player in this match.

Andrey Rublev, like Tsitsipas, was questioned for playing in Hamburg so close to the start of his French Open campaign. But Rublev has shown no ill effects after winning Hamburg. After a five set win over Sam Querrey in the first round, the Russian has won 9 of 11 sets from round two on. Against quality clay court opponents like Marton Fucsovics and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, that is no small feat.

Rublev has had some issues on serve at Roland-Garros so far. Outside of an easy win over the clay court averse Kevin Anderson, Rublev has been broken at least three times by each of his other opponents in this tournament. Stefanos Tsitsipas has the potential to exacerbate those issues on serve if Rublev is not careful.

These two competitors have met twice on the tour level in their careers. Rublev has won both of those matches, including one at a major in the 2019 US Open. Outside of an exhibition match in Abu Dhabi in 2019, no match between these two players has been settled in straight sets. That bodes well for the over, as both players should be able to snag a set and avoid breaks well enough to get the total number of service games well into the 40s for the match.

Pick: Over 40.5 service games (-112)

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French Open Betting FAQ

How many service games happen in each set?

The number of service games that take place in each set can vary. The minimum amount that can be played in a set is six. The maximum amount that can be played is 13. How many get played depends on whether or not players are broken on serve throughout each set. On clay, it is usually easier for serve to be broken, which means there are fewer sets that go to tiebreaks.

Do tiebreaks count toward the total?

Yes, tiebreaks count toward the number of service games played. If a set is won in a tiebreak, there are 13 games counted as played in that set. When betting the over, a tiebreak is the best case scenario in a set. Because of this, matches featuring big servers like John Isner tend to see higher totals than other matches.

Why are you only making one pick each day?

Betting on tennis requires bettors to look for the best opportunity to win. On some days, that means that it is prudent to make one selection. On other days, there are more matches worth wagering on. It is important to never feel obligated to make a certain number of bets per day. Instead, only place bets where you find that there is value in the market.

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Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is a sports writer and broadcaster from Albany, NY. He has covered sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013.