Betting Picks Against the Spread, Totals & Money Line

✅ With 49ers GM John Lynch not mincing words, it would appear Mac Jones will be the pick at 3. He did not come out and say verbatim the team will be selecting Jones. However he did say he defers to Kyle Shanahan, the head coach and man who runs the offense. It is perhaps the worst kept secret in the draft that Shanahan really wants Alabama quarterback Mac Jones to run his offense. With Shanahan having the final say and his player sitting there, he will be the pick for the 49ers.

✅ Kyle Pitts is the best tight end prospect since, well, since never. I believe him to not have a pier in terms of a tight end prospect. He is the best skill position player in the draft and is most likely to be off the board at 4 overall. That could be to the Falcons or to a team that trades in or up for him. If he falls to the fifth pick, the Bengals should be happy to take him, but again, another opportunity for a team to trade for him. The over/under prop for Pitts costs -225 for under 5.5, so we get added value to make the same bet in this fashion.

✅ There are few spots farther down the draft board where we can make a connection of team to player. But perhaps the easiest one to make is Najee Harris to the Steelers at 24. Their want for alarge power runner to fix that portion of the offense makes it a perfect marriage. Even if they slide back thinking they don’t need to stay put for a running back, there is still margin to get their player in the top 32. This is one that feels to be overthinking to attach any other player to the team.

✅ The Knicks have everything to play for in this matchup as they are fighting for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics, meanwhile, are sitting everyone ahead of the play-in tournament.

✅ The Celtics have been bad lately even when not sitting players ahead of the play-in round. Boston has won just 15 of their 35 road games this season and should lose handily here.

✅ Both teams are playing in the second leg of back-to-backs, but the Knicks can afford to give more energy here as they will have time off between the play-in tournament and the first round of the playoffs. Boston does not have that luxury.

✅ The Knicks are the more motivated team here as they have to fight their way out of the sixth spot in the East.

✅ Miles Bridges is out for the Charlotte Hornets, which severely impacts their explosivity on both ends of the floor.

✅ The Knicks are the best team in the league against the spread this season.

✅ The Pelicans have been eliminated from the playoffs and have nothing left to play for this season. They should be sitting their stars for this contest.

✅ Golden State, meanwhile, has a lot to play for as they look to avoid falling into the ninth spot in the Western Conference. Expect them to play hard to earn an easier play-in tournament road.

✅ The Pelicans are 13-22 on the road this season and don't appear to be much of a threat away from Smoothie King Center.

Why bet the Wizards:

✅ The Cleveland Cavaliers are a mess from an injury perspective. They have been consistently without several players. For this matchup they are likely to be without Darius Garland, Cedi Osman and Taurean Prince. Combine that with the current malaise hanging over the franchise and the Washington Wizards should be in position to take advantage of Cleveland's woes.

✅ The Washington Wizards, on the other hand, are climbing the Eastern Conference standings as they have refused to give up this season. Washington is now in a play-in tournament position in the East if they keep winning games. They are playing some of the best home basketball in the NBA right now and should get the better of the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Wizards are 7-1 in their last eight home games, including a nine point win against these Cavaliers.

✅ The Cleveland Cavaliers snapped a ten game losing streak in their last home game against Boston. They are heading into this matchup with the Washington Wizards with the contiued road woes that have plagued them all season long. They have lost five straight and have a real propensity for being blown out away from home. The Cavs are at a point in their season where a high pick in next year's NBA Draft is the priority more so than winning games.

Why bet the Phoenix Suns -4.5:

✅ The Suns are one of the best teams in the Western Conference, and are particulalrly a force at home. They have won 12 of their last 13 at home, and showing no signs of slowing down. They are sitting with the 2 seed in the West. The 1 seed is still well within reach as they sit just a game and a half back.

✅ The Suns are statisitcally an absolute monster at both ends of the floor at home, They are third in the league in offensive efficiency and fourth in the league in defesnive efficiency. This translates to gross statistics as well. They are seventh in the league in gross scoring and third in the league in gross scoring allowed. Add all of it and we get an average +9.2 point differential per home game for the elite Suns.

✅ The Blazers are quite an effective and efficient offensive team no matter where they play. Their scoring is rarely an issue for them. It is on the defensive end where they have their let downs. Despite being bottom ten in the league in pace, their gross scoring allowed on the road is bottom ten in the league. They are the second most inefficent defesnsive road team in the league and that explains the amount of points allowed on fewer possessions. The Suns will score at will and witht he Suns ability to play defense, the Blazers will not be able to keep pace

Why bet the Chicago Bulls?

✅ The Raptors continue to deal with the absence of players. While they are bitten by the injury bug, they are also sitting players due to rest. They are eliminated from the playoffs and have nothing to play for, but they are truly waving the white flag. Their entire starting five will sit out this game due to either injury or rest. The Raptors will be reliant on the star power of the likes of Khem Birch and Stanley Johnson in this matchup.

✅ The Raptors torpedoed the final stanza of the season. They have lost seven of their last eight games and have nothing to play for. In fact, losing these games gives them improved chances at draft positioning.

✅ Since Zach Lavine and Nikola Vucevic have returned, the Bulls have played very tough. They are 3-1 in those four games with the lone loss coming to the high end Nets. The wins have come in dominant fashion. The average margin of victory in the three wins is 18 points. It is a shame the Bulls are going to fall short of the playoffs, as a healthy version of that team has enough to make a playoff series competitive.

✅ The New York Knicks were destroyed by the San Antonio Spurs in San Antonio prior to the All-Star break. But the Spurs had LaMarcus Aldridge on their roster then and do not any longer. Here, the Knicks should be able to take advantage of the edge that Julius Randle is going to bring against a Spurs front line that features more traditional bigs that won't be able to handle him.

✅ Heading into Thursday's action, the Spurs are guaranteed to be in the battle of the ninth and tenth seeds in the play-in tournament if they hold on and make it there. The Knicks, meanwhile, have to keep winning in order to have a chance at a top-four seed and home court advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

✅ The Knicks are the best team in the league at covering the spread this season. They have covered the number nearly 65% of the time on the season. They are also the number one team in the league at covering the spread at home.

✅ The Philadelphia 76ers more or less have the top seed in the regular season locked up. But the Miami Heat still have a lot to play for in the final games of their regular season. Miami needs to keep winning games in order to preserve their shot at a top-four seed in the East so they can avoid going on the road for their first round series. Expect that motivational edge to play a big role here.

✅ There are some injury concerns for the Philadelphia 76ers coming into this game. Most notably, Joel Embiid is on the injury report and questionable due to illness. If Embiid or any of the other key players listed are unable to go in this contest, the Miami Heat will have a big advantage in this Heat vs 76ers showdown.

✅ Heading into Thursday's action, the Miami Heat are tied for the longest win streak in the Eastern Conference with three straight victories. There are teams out West with longer win streaks at the moment. But the Heat are playing some of the best basketball in the Eastern Conference heading toward the end of the regular season.

✅ The Los Angeles Lakers beat the Houston Rockets in back-to-back games in mid-January, taking them down by 18 points and 17 points in those two contests. Expect a similar performance in this game by a Lakers team looking to fight their way out of the play-in tournament.

✅ While the Los Angeles Lakers are playing the second leg of a back-to-back here, they will feel a palpable momentum boost after last night's overtime win over the Knicks. The Lakers showed the fight many wanted to see from them on Tuesday, which is important heading into the postseason.

✅ The Houston Rockets may be sitting just about every player worth anything in this game against the Los Angeles Lakers. Kevin Porter Jr. isn't expected to play, Christian Wood is questionable, and players like Eric Gordon and John Wall haven't seen action in a while.

✅ The Utah Jazz are not bringing their best roster into this game against the Portland Trail Blazers. Both Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell are going to be out for the Jazz, which bodes poorly for them against the guard combo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum for the Trail Blazers.

✅ The Portland Trail Blazers are one of the best teams in the NBA at covering the spread on the road. They have covered the number 21 of 34 times away from Moda Center, good for 61.8% of the time. That is bad news for the Utah Jazz in this contest.

✅ The sense of urgency is going to be much higher for the Portland Trail Blazers here. They are looking to avoid the play-in tournament, while the Utah Jazz have a two-game lead for the top seed in the West. Expect Portland to look like the more motivated team from start to finish.

✅ A Friday night NHL matchup between Winnipeg Jets and Toronto Maple Leafs and it's likely that these teams will bring an entertaining show.

✅ The Jets have been defeated in 9 out of their 11 past games, mostly due to their defensive weaknesses.

✅ The Jets defeated the Canucks 5-0 in their previous game and should be entering this game with a boosted confidence.

✅ The Maple Leafs have the better form when looking at the past weeks but they were defeated 4-3 by the Senators in their previous game.

✅ The Maple Leafs are one of the strongest attacking teams in the league but the Jets looked really sharp against the Canucks and should be able to score some goals again.

✅ Most things points in the direction of an open game with two teams going forward with more than 5 goals being scored in total during regular time.

✅ This is the third consecutive game between these two teams and the Oilers won both game 1 (5-3) and game 2 (4-1).

✅ The first two games were played in Vancouver and the Oilers secured their place in the playoffs in game 1, while the Canucks are rock bottom of the Scotia North Division without any realistic chance of reaching the playoffs.

✅ The Oilers have won 5 out their 6 previous games.

✅ The Canucks have lost 6 straight games.

✅ The Oilers are big favorites but are still worth the bet at -155 considering the fact that they are aiming for the first place in the North Division while the Canucks have no confidence and no real chance of achieving anything this season.

✅ This is the first out of four consecutive games between Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks and there is no doubt that the Oilers looks like the stronger team at the moment.

✅ The Oilers have won 5 out of their 7 previous games and 3 out of the 4 latest encounters facing the Canucks.

✅ The Oilers have also won 3 straight road games.

✅ The Canucks have lost their 4 previous games and 5 out of their 6 games before entering this matchup.

✅ The Oilers are second-placed in the Scotia North Division and they enter this series highly confident after an impressive performance when defeating the Flames on Sunday.

✅ The Oilers are the well-deserved favorite in this game but this bet still has a strong value.

✅ Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings will face each other in 4 consecutive games where this is the second encounter in that series.

✅ The Kings won the first game 4-1 on Monday. This means they have three straight victories (4-1, 4-1, 5-1) against the Ducks to their advantage.

✅ The Ducks have lost their 5 previous games and their lack of confidence is obvious at the moment.

✅ The Ducks are at the very bottom of the Honda West division, 7 points behind the Kings but with with 3 games more played.

✅ Another Kings victory will double the wager and that odds certainly adds a strong value to this pick.

✅ Columbus comes with lousy form to this matchup. They are facing a weak Detroit and should be able to break the negative trend.

📉 Blue Jackets are 0-9 in their last 9 games the trend stops tonight.

📉 Red Wings are 1-4 in their last 5 games

✅ Flames have won three of their last four matchups against the Canadiens.

✅ Flames have a goals against average of 1.86 and have allowed only 23.1 shots against.

✅ Jacob Markstrom has been red hot against Montreal, winning his last three games vs the Canadiens with a .937 save percentage.

This fight is the one taking the place of the postponed Hermansson vs Shahbazyan fight. This pair of flyweights fight up a weight class in this matchup.

✅ Matt Schnell is a quick and rangy striker. However, that striking skill set is not a very high end one, and he does very much lack a power element to his game. When his fights are a striking affair, he is essentially point fighting and not truly threatening a finish or significant damage. What he does lack in the power department, he makes up for in a technical battle. That said, technical is not the type of battle he is entering on Saturday.

✅ Rogerio Bontorin is a stocky flyweight. He will likely be the beneficiary of the weight class change for this fight, as he is certainly the fighter that cuts more weight. Bontorin’s best quality is his grappling, and he knows exactly what his strength is. He is one of the fighters that are so comfortable with their BJJ game, they press forward, wing bombs with no worries of being taken down in the process. If the pressure brings the distance being closed and an opportunity for a takedown in their own right, all the better. Bontorin has taken down every UFC opponent not named Ray Borg, so I do expect him to get the fight to the floor, and more than once, if necessary. He will have all the advantages on the floor, although it may not appear that way on the surface. Schnell has a pair of triangle submission wins to his UFC record, but those came against very different and more mistake prone opponents.

✅ I fully expect this fight to play out with Bontorin taking away the advantages Schnell has. He will constantly close the distance and he will be the fighter throwing with fight ending intentions. If and when the fight hits the mat, that is also advantageous for Bontorin, and I believe the wrong fighter to be favored in this matchup. Take Bontorin as a value underdog.

Before diving into this fight, make a note that it was mislined. After being a -190 or more favorite leading up this week, Antonina Shevchenko has been bet down to -130. This was an inevitable and necessary correction.

✅ I mentioned in the intro that Andrea Lee has had some bad luck in decisions. I also mentioned the judging problems that have taken place in Texas. It turns out, Lee was the victim of one of those robberies. Lee is a striker and well rounded. She is willing to mix it up and she has the better wrestling game than that of Shevchenko. While both fighters are quality strikers, there are differences. Lee is more aggressive and pressures and forces the action more than Shevchenko does. This could cause problems in and of itself, but it also may set up clinch work and takedowns for Lee. As long as Lee does not come in with a passive game plan, the stylistic matchup is a very good one for her.

✅ On the other side, Shevchenko gets a step back up in competition after an impressive showing against Ariane Lipski. She used offensive wrestling and grappling in that fight after being dominated on the mat and losing two of her previous three fights in that fashion. I think the opening line was reactionary to the ground win from Shevchenko, but certainly did not take into account the quality of opponent. The fight with Lee is a clear step back up and I don’t think she will have that same avenue of advantage in this matchup. In fact, it may be an area of disadvantage used against her once again. If Shevchenko is unable to secure her own takedowns, she will likely have to be on her bike in the standup and be an absolute sniper from the outside. Lee will pressure and she will be landed the more significant strikes otherwise.

✅ This is the third of three fights on the card that features a mislined underdog that I believe should dbe favored. It is another great value opportunity. Even after the line movement, there is plenty of value on Lee, and she will be our play.

✅ If you have followed my work for any amount of time, you know I am not a fan of the Katlyn Chookagian style. She prefers fighting at range, to the point that it is a fault. She often is throwing strikes into thin air, hoping to discourage and frustrate the reads of opponents attempting to close the distance. She lacks power in her strikes and is completely a point fighter, looking to earn decision wins. In fact, with he exception of her two KO losses in the last year plus, her other 10 UFC fights have gone to the judge’s scorecards. She can be opportunistic with takedowns, but is just not a quality wrestler and it would be surprising to see her attempt any at all in this matchup.

✅ Viviane Araujo on the other hand is more exciting and willing to engage. She is certainly the more powerful fighter and will without question land the most significant shots in this fight. At least in terms of strikes that have a chance of landing on the opponent, she will be the busier fighter and the more powerful. She will force her way inside as she sees fit and make the fight uncomfortable for Chookagian. She is also the physically stronger fighter and she is the better wrestler. She has also shown a sound ability to control on top. The grappling in this fight will be initiated by Araujo, and she will have an advantage there. She has had some intermittent gas issues late in fights, but there are no indicators as to why this has happened. Assuming she does not gas, she will be the fighter dictating throughout, and will earn a comfortable decision, assuming she does not find a finish. But what if she does gas, then what? That would only be an issue in the third round, and Chookagian is simply not the type of fighter that can capitalize and go get a finish. It is highly likely Araujo is up two rounds at that point, so even if Chookagian takes the third on volume of striking, it will already be too late.

✅ This is another spot where I see the wrong fighter being favored in a favorable stylistic spot. Take the value underdog in Araujo.

This is going to be a fun striking matchup. However, it very well may be closer on paper than it is stylistically. Let me explain.

✅ Edson Barboza has long been a high end striker in the lightweight, and now featherweight divisions. You don’t have to be a UFC historian or fanatic to know the kicking game Barboza brings to the table. He is always quite dangerous at range, with a kick at any target bringing the potential to end a fight. Barboza is also a well rounded fighter. It would be surprising to see either fighter initiate grappling in this fight. It will come down to the striking and essentially who can dictate range. Barboza will want it to take place at kicking range and not boxing range. The same will not be true for his opponent.

✅ Shane Burgos is also a quality striker, albeit a very different one. Burgos is more of a pressure boxer that enjoys trading. His durability is also quite good. In his last fight, despite a loss, his chin was made of iron. He was eating shots Josh Emmett was sitting down on, and those are shots that will KO essentially anyone. Burgos will keep up the volume and pressure, and absolutely be in the face of Barboza. This is how Burgos fights and he will not deviate. What this will do is put his game plan to work while simultaneously take away the most dangerous weapons of Barboza. If Barboza’s opponents are constantly in his face, he can’t put his kicks to work. When that is the case in this matchup with Burgos, Burgos will box him up and it will not be a very close fight.

✅ Even assuming no finish for Burgos, his volume is simply so much higher than that of Barboza. Combine more power in the hands of Burgos than that of Barboza, we will see a runaway, and that may come as a surprise to some. I understand the respect for Barboza from oddsmakers and bettors alike with this tight line, but it truly does not take into account the constants in each fighter’s respective skill sets. Take Burgos on the way too short price.

✅ This fight is perhaps the easiest stylistic matchup to break down on the evening. Marcos Rogerio de Lima has been on the UFC roster for a decade, and in 12 fights we have a great read on his skill set. He is a crisp, compact and powerful striker. He certainly does his best work in the stand up department. This is especially true because he has never been able to fill in the glaring hole in his game: his takedown defense. In a brutal transition, he is quite helpless off of his back, so once he is down, he is often on the losing end of those fights. He needs to keep his fights standing, and often finds legitimate success when he is able to do so. It should be noted that while his defensive wrestling and grappling is anemic, his top game on the floor is sound enough.

✅ Maurice Greene is a long and rangy striker. I would not deem him a subpar striker, but he is certainly far from world class and he does not bring a power element at heavyweight. He is just an adequate striker that will hold his own against lesser competition but will be outclassed by anyone at the higher end of the striking spectrum. Rogerio de Lima certainly falls into the latter category.

I touched on where Rogerio de Lima loses fights, and this is simply not an area that Greene is able to exploit. Greene has quality grappling off his back, even earning two submission in the UFC from his back. However, he is yet to complete a takedown in the UFC, and he is simply not a sound offensive wrestler. His height combined with something of a lack of burst to shoot takedowns will continue to make that portion of his game a non starter.

✅ With Greene being unlikely to force this fight to the floor and Rogerio de Lima happy to bang it out, the stylistic advantage certainly lies heavily with Rogerio de Lima. He has a clear advantage on the striking and power side, and will find a KO of Greene. Greene will not have an opponent looking to wrestler him and he will have no answer for being on the wrong end of a striking battle.

With the Rogerio de Lima ITD line sitting at -120, there is simply not enough value to move to the ITD line from the -190 flat line. While I do expect a KO, the flat line is the play as it keeps a decision win in the range of winning outcomes.

As I mentioned in the intro, this fight is not necessarily one that deserves main event booking, but it is a quality fight nonetheless. Michelle Waterson is no stranger to a main event, while Marina Rodriguez will get the spotlight for the first time. It should be noted this is a matchup of strawweights, but due to the late announcement of the main event, the fight will take place at 125 lbs. I would imagine this benefits Rodriguez a bit more as I believe she is the larger fighter and the one that cuts more weight.

✅ Starting with Marina Rodriguez, she has long been a high quality striker, and she finally broke through in her last fight with a KO of Amanda Ribas. Rodriguez is a rangy striker for a strawweight, and she certainly has deceptive power behind everything she throws. After the KO of Ribas, perhaps deceptive no longer fits, but she is definitely one of the harder hitters at strawweight and does have finishing ability.

As we have often seen, when a fighter’s striking is levels above their opponent’s, their opponents often turn into wrestlers. This has been the case for Rodriguez and there have been periods of issue for her. The only fight she lost due to an opponent’s takedowns and control was to Carla Esparza, but there were two draws mixed in as well. As long as this fight takes place on the feet, it will be a walk in the park for Rodriguez. It will be up to her to dictate where the fight takes place.

✅ Michelle Waterson is a six year UFC vet with 10 fights to her name. She has fought the entire range of the roster and has been very consistent in beating who she was supposed to beat and losing to who she was supposed to lose to. The true question in this fight is whether Rodriguez is truly a level above Waterson or not, and I believe she is.

Waterson has adequate striking, but it will not take long for her to realize she will not be competitive in the stand up portions of this fight. She is also a capable wrestler and good grappler, but her style is not that of a grinding wrestler. She does not mat return opponents and drag them into grappling heavy bouts. She instead is opportunistic with takedowns and takes advantage of the takedowns she is able to score. Waterson will have at least one takedown in this fight, but she will not be able to score enough of them to tilt the fight to her favor.

✅ The damage inflicted by Rodriguez will accumulate and leave Waterson little recourse by the time the championship rounds roll around. I don’t believe she will be able to make it through the entire fight, and a stoppage for Rodriguez is at least in a tie for the most likely outcome of this fight. With that being the case, we will look to cash the plus figure of Rodriguez ITD at +275 as she pours on the damage over five rounds.

✅ This fight will take place in two stanzas. The first stanza will be the duration of the first round where heavy handed Phil Hawes will look for a KO and still have the gas to find it. The second stanza will be Hawes trying to hang on once the tank is empty. The orthodox vs southpaw nature of this fight will set up for power shots, but I think that means either fighter will be looking to initiate grappling.

✅Phil Hawes is quite physically strong and as I mentioned, is quite dangerous early in the fight. He has that power in his hands and has explosive wrestling to fall back on. That first round will be the path to victory for Hawes. His mission will be to KO a fighter that has never been finished, and one that has advantages in the fight, particularly later on.

Kyle Daukaus is a large middleweight with a well rounded skill set, that certainly has a gas tank advantage in this matchup. He is not the more powerful striker, but he will be the busier one later in the fight, and he is certainly the more durable fighter. Striking however is not the bread and butter for Daukaus, and I believe he will invite Hawes to wrestle from the opening second. His BJJ is high level, and it will be a massive advantage for Daukaus. Even if he starts on his back while Hawes is still fresh, he will likely be able to find a sweep. Even if not, he will certainly be ale to keep himself safe. Daukaus will likely find a finish if he finds himself in top position at any point in the fight. If the fight hits the mat at a later portion, I don’t believe Hawes will remotely have the gas tank to keep Daukaus from running through him on the mat.

✅I expect Daukaus to be cautious early on and try to clinch often, even if it means he is taken down. Once Hawes explosiveness leaves, Daukaus will then take over. There is no value in going to the short ITD line on Daukaus, we will simply play him flat at a friendly -130.

✅ Amanda Ribas will look to bounce back from her first UFC loss. I like that she is matched up with another striker, albeit one that lacks the power of her previous opponent in Marina Rodriguez. Ribas was rumored to weigh over 140 lbs on fight night of her last fight, and if that was the case, it was easy to see why her chin would give out against a power striker. Not all losses can be explained, but that would certainly give a reason for that one.

Ribas still has one of if not the biggest ceilings in any weight class. Her striking is continuously improving and is quite respectable at this stage. What currently sets her apart is being the best grappler in the division. This sounds like a big statement, but is difficult to argue when we’ve already seen her beat Mackenzie Dern on the floor. She is opportunistic with getting fights to the floor and once there, she is an absolute force. No amount of training leading up to this fight or past experience will be able to save Angela Hill once this fight hits the floor. Ribas will cut through her like a knife through butter.

✅ Angela Hill will be required to keep this fight standing for the duration. Her Muay Thai striking game is going to give her an advantage on the feet against Ribas. Now, even though Hill has this advantage, it is not a massive one. The advantage for Ribas on the floor is exponentially wider and it makes the path to victory for Hill a difficult one to envision. While Hill is an extremely active fighter and has seemingly fought most of the division, she has not seen many high end grapplers with a rounded skill set. She has been submitted by Rose Namajunas and Randa Markos. She was additionally beaten by Michelle Waterson. She’s never fought Carla Esparza or Mackenzie Dern. I think the stylistic disadvantage for Hill is being undersold in this matchup.

✅ Ribas will take this fight to her world, earn a stoppage and get back on track on her path to the belt. The +280 ITD line on her is almost silly in how wide it is, and that will be our avenue of attack.

✅ Giga Chikadze is a high end striker that I have been a bit slow to believe was a real MMA prospect. Now that he has four UFC wins in four fights under his belt, I am starting to believe in him. He is truly elevating his MMA game. He has shown better wrestling know-how than I thought he would have entering the UFC. He has also shown an improvement in his hands. He always had a high end kicking game as a kickboxer, but is now boxing at the same level. He will be the more powerful and crisp striker and will come away winning essentially every striking exchange.

✅ With wins and improvements come more difficult opponents. Cub Swanson is a step up in competition for Chikadze, but certainly not one above his station. While the ten-year UFC vet Swanson has won a couple of fights in a row, that was against a dip in level of competition. Swanson had a step up in competition in his previous four fights, and lost them all. Now after a couple of wins, that elevated competition returns, and Swanson will go back to losing, despite a sound and rounded skill set. In my opinion, we would have to go back to Swanson’s 2014 win over Jeremy Stephens to find a win against a fighter the current caliber of Chikadze.

✅ I do not expect to see grappling in this fight, but if we do, it will be Swanson trying to avoid striking that has not gone his way. What we will see is Chikadze gradually pull away and perhaps finish Swanson. With finish and decision wins equally probable, we will just attack the -160 flat line on Chikadze.

✅ Poliana Botelho is a fighter that seems to have an easy recipe when it comes to betting her fights. She is an absolutely vicious striker with real power in the flyweight division. She has been a nightmare for women that try to stand and strike with her. It is no wonder that opponents who are capable look to take her down and control her. Botelho has run into problems against high end grapplers. She has difficulty returning to her feet against BJJ aces, but is not completely helpless against lesser grapplers. When she gets to stand and bang, she is visibly powerful and sharp, and her opponents do not want to be hit by her.

✅ Enter the matchup with Luana Carolina, a striker. These are the exact matchups where Botelho excels, as she will be better in the area of specialty of her opponent. Additionally, Carolina does not pose a threat on the mat, and was even submitted by Ariane Lipski, who has trouble in fights against anything but the lowest level of UFC competition.

✅ In a stand up affair, we will take the favored Botelho not only to win, but to do so inside the distance. While laying -245 is not irresponsible in this matchup, the +345 ITD line is just too big to ignore for a woman with the power of Botelho. This will be our avenue of attack on our lone plus figure play on this card.

✅ Novak Djokovic had to play almost five hours of tennis due to some unfortunate scheduling on Saturday. Nadal will be the fresher player and win handily.

✅ Nadal has beaten Djokovic in nearly two thirds of their clay court matchups, winning in straight sets eight times against him on this surface.

✅ Nadal will not pass up on the opportunity to send a message to Djokovic in their last meeting before the French Open.

✅ Novak Djokovic has yet to lose on clay against Stefanos Tsitsipas in his career. The world number one has taken the first two sets in each of their first two matchups on this surface.

✅ Tsitsipas has looked great on clay of late, but hasn't faced any pressure on his serve so far this week. He will experience plenty of that pressure this match from the defense of Djokovic.

✅ Djokovic is defending a title here in Rome last year, which will provide a little added motivation to finish the job this weekend.

✅ Thiem enters this match having held serve and broken serve against his opponents at a higher rate on clay over the last year. Expect those trends to continue and work in the favor of the Austrian.

✅ Thiem's lone loss on clay during this recent clay swing came against Sascha Zverev, who ran through the entire field in Madrid. He has been very strong since heading back to the red clay thus far.

✅ Thiem has already beaten Sonego in straight sets in their previous meeting. He beat the Italian in two sets in Kitzbuhel in the past, and should be able to get the job done again here.

✅ Karatsev is the much more consistent player on clay, as his service hold percentages are much higher on this surface than Medvedev's.

✅ Surprisingly, Medvedev breaks at a lower percentage on clay than he does on hard courts as well. On a slower surface, one would expect his break rate to be higher, but that hasn't been the case.

✅ Though the head-to-head series hasn't seen any action since 2016, Karatsev has beaten Medvedev both times they have played previously.

✅ Thiem has dominated the head-to-head against Zverev, winning eight of the 10 matches between these players.

✅ Thiem just came off of a three-set win over the powerful serve of John Isner. A match against Isner is a great way to prepare for the heavy serve of Zverev.

✅ Zverev is overvalued after beating Rafael Nadal on his worst clay court during the quarterfinals.

✅ Isner has played back-to-back three-set matches and benefits from serving at altitude in this tournament.

✅ Dominic Thiem is facing his toughest test yet since returning after a month and a half out of action. He should win, but he will be pushed here.

✅ Isner has won at least won set in two of his three lifetime matchups with Thiem.

✅ Daniil Medvedev may have won his first match in Madrid, but it wasn't pretty. He struggled mightily at the net and doesn't appear to have improved much on clay. Garin will take advantage of that.

✅ Garin, on the other hand, is a strong clay court player. He has won two thirds of his clay court matches in 2021, while Medvedev has won just one match on the surface since the end of the 2019 season.

✅ As long as an opponent of Medvedev on clay is at plus money, it is a good bet. With Medvedev struggling the way he has on clay, there is legitimate value on the underdog here.

📣 NYY - Jordan Montgomery (L) vs. TB - Luis Patino (R)

✅ The Yankees will go on the road Tuesday night to face off with the Tampa Bay Rays in a game that sportsbooks are looking at as close to a toss-up. This is going to be a close game throughout and I like the slight underdog Rays to prevail. Let's dive into exactly why as youngster Luis Patino takes the hill.

✅ The Rays SP Luis Patino is a 21-year-old prospect that I project to be a future ace. At just 6'0 and 190 pounds, Patino packs a mighty punch. He's struck out 10+ batters per nine throughout the minors and climbed the ranks as fast as reasonably possible in today's game. He's been excellent in his first three appearances and I expect him to dice up the Yankees for at least three or four innings before the solid bullpen takes over.

✅ The Rays will have the honor of facing off with Jordan Montgomery, who's the worst starting pitcher the Yankees will offer opposing offenses. He's decent against lefties, but is terrible against righties with a 5.21 xFIP in his last 70 innings. Look for the Rays big right-handed bats to have big games and Randy Arazorena is my pick for HR prop of the night.

📈 Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

📉 Yankees are 2-8 in their last 10 games on astroturf.

📣 TEX - Jordan Lyles (R) vs. SF - Logan Webb (R)

✅ The Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants faced off in a low-scoring affair last night in a game that finished 3-1. Both offenses struggled to get their bats going and I expect them to use these subpar starting pitchers to jumpstart things early here. The Rangers and Giants both have productive offenses when they put up runs early, but they can also both strikeout a ton and go cold.

✅ The Rangers are facing off with Logan Webb, who's a consistently below-average starting pitcher. He's given up a 4.71 xFIP over the last two years and isn't dominant against either side of the plate. Look for the Rangers to hit a homer or two against him as well, as Webb has given up 1.41 HR/9 since 2019.

✅ The SF Giants will be tasked with facing Jordan Lyles, who is another guy that consistently sits below-average. He has just one plus pitch and when that doesn't work, the rest of his arsenal falls apart. The Giants are a scrappy team to say the least and I expect at least three or four runs against Lyles before he's knocked out of the game. The over is the only bet I am comfortable making for this game.

📈 Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

📈 Over is 5-0 in Giants' last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

📣MIA - Jordan Holloway (R) vs. ARI - Luke Weaver (R)

✅ The Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks will face off at 9:40 PM ET in Chase Field. The Diamondbacks come in as -130 favorites and the over/under is set to 9 runs. We're going to ride with the Diamondbacks, who have the better pitcher on the hill and have home-field advantage.

✅ The Miami Marlins will be deploying young righty Jordan Holloway, who has pitched over his head to this point. Against lefties, he's sported a 5.12 xFIP and it's only a matter of time until Holloway starts to give up runs early. Look for David Peralta and Pavin Smith to have some success here as the D-backs get out to an early lead.

✅ On the D-Backs side of things, they'll be tossing Luke Weaver against the Marlins. He's disappointed a bit since joining the majors but is still posting a 4.12 xFIP through the last two seasons. The Marlins rank 21st against right-handed pitching and strikeout 24% of the time. Look for the Diamondbacks to win this game at a friendly -130 number.

📈 Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a home favorite.

📉 Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog.

📣 PIT - Tyler Anderson (L) vs. CHC - Kyle Hendricks (R)

✅ The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates will face off at 2:20 PM ET in Wrigley Field. We're currently looking at 22 MPH winds blowing straight in, and this stadium is the one impacted more by wind than any other in baseball. They have very minimal outfield seating and structure, leading to nearly all the wind getting through to the field. This will likely lead to a very low-scoring game, though baseball is always unpredictable.

✅ While the wind will make it tough on both offenses, I trust the Chicago Cubs to overcome it easier at home. They're better at putting up runs without the long ball, and are far superior against left-handed pitching. Tyler Anderson isn't a bad pitcher by any means, but look for the Cubs to give him trouble from the get go.

✅ Kyle Hendricks hasn't started the season like he wanted, but this is still one of the more consistent starting pitchers in the National League. He's a monster of command and does a great job of limiting runs. With the wind at his back, look for Hendricks to have a phenomenal game as the Cubs beat the Pirates in a low-scoring affair.

📈 Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.

📉 Pirates are 1-8 in their last 9 overall.

📣 MIL - Brett Anderson (L) vs. MIA - Sandy Alcantara (R)

✅ The Miami Marlins continue to be one of the tougher teams in the league, even given their lack of overall talent. The lineup does a great job of working tough at-bats and making sure no pitcher is let off easy. Today, they'll face off with a below-average lefty in Brett Anderson. The Marlins will be tossing Sandy Alcantara, who's their best starting pitcher in the rotation.

✅ Miami Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara is just 25 years old and has shown signs of being one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He's sported a 3.81 xFIP since the start of 2019, striking out 8.41 batters per nine innings and walking just two. The Milwaukee Brewers rank 26th in baseball against right-handed pitching and don't offer much resistance to a good game here out of Alcantara.

✅ The Milwaukee Brewers simply aren't the same team with Christian Yelich out of the lineup. The Marlins, on the other hand, are completely healthy and hit left-handed pitching extremely well. Look for guys like Jesus Aguilar and Garrett Cooper to give Anderson some issues, who's allowed a .351 wOBA to righties over the last three seasons. Give me the Marlins to win this game by a few runs.

📈 Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.

📉 Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

✅ We have a three-game special on our hands today and I am a huge fan of all three of these teams prevailing. We'll start with the New York Yankees, who are facing off with the Washington Nationals and SP Joe Ross. The Yankees are (-175) favorites and I expect them to put up some early runs on Ross and the bullpen that will follow. While this might be the toughest game of all to ask for, I like the Yankees to come out victorious.

✅ The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles look to be dealing with some crappy weather, so make sure to keep an eye out for that as rain can mess up the best of things when it comes to baseball. Assuming this game is a full-go, the Red Sox hold a massive advantage and the price doesn't indicate that. They're just (-140) favorites, and I would put the number closer to 200. Nick Pivetta might not be a great SP, but he's certainly better than Dean Kremer, who's posted a 5.12 xFIP over the last two seasons.

✅ The Mets will be facing off with the Arizona Diamondbacks at home in Citi Field with super-ace Jacob deGrom on the mound. They're in turn massive -300 favorites, and it's hard to disagree. deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball and it's fair to expect the Diamondbacks to struggle from start to finish here. The Mets will put up a few runs at the very least against Riley Smith and I have a hard time seeing them walk away from this game with anything but a comfortable victory.

📈 Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 vs. American League East.

📈 Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

📈 Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.

📣 WAS - Joe Ross (R) vs. NYY - Domingo German (R)

✅ The Washington Nationals and New York Yankees will face off at 1:05 PM ET in Yankee Stadium. We're looking at the Yankees as slight favorites with a 9.5 over/under. We'll elect to wager the total, as this is a game I expect to be high-scoring from both sides. This number is too low and I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 10 before the first pitch.

✅ Let's kick it off with the Washington Nationals, who are facing off with tough right-hander Domingo German. German is a young and talented starting pitcher, but he's not without his young insecurities. He can struggle with command at times and a team like the Nationals in Yankee Stadium will push you back. Juan Soto has been on fire of late and his bat alone can manufacture a few runs.

✅ The New York Yankees are favored in this game and I have a hard time believing their offense will have much trouble tonight. They're facing off with Joe Ross, who's posted a 4.97 xFIP since 2018. Yankee Stadium is a terrible pitch to park in and I expect Ross to give up a few early runs before turning things over to an average-at-best bullpen. I love the over here and expect one of these teams to put up close to nine runs by themselves.

📈 Over is 9-3 in Nationals last 12 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.

📈 Over is 3-1-1 in Yankees last 5 overall.

📣CWS - Carlos Rodon (L) vs. KC - Brad Keller (R)

✅ While Carlos Rodon is a guy I actually like a lot in the right matchup, this isn't one I am a huge fan of. The Royals are an extremely scrappy lineup and they are far better against left-handed pitching. When Rodon does struggle, it's almost always because he can't command his fastball. The Royals have a better shot than most to put up some early runs here and I am willing to take a stand on the over.

✅ The only reason I didn't ride with the Royals as underdogs is I am not sure we can trust Brad Keller to keep this White Sox lineup quiet. They can beat you with power, but can also string together hits and torments opposing starts. 8 is simply too low for this game and I will have a certain unit on the over.

✅ If you're looking for a lean on the moneyline, I actually do like the Kansas City Royals to win this game outright at +160. Rodon is a volatile starting pitcher and he's either extremely dominant or just not very good. I expect the ladder tonight as the Royals put up some early runs and manage to hold onto the lead.

📈 Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.

📈 Over is 4-0 in Royals last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

📣 PHI - Zach Eflin (R) vs. ATL - Charlie Morton (R)

✅ The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are extremely familiar with each other as they are both in the NL East. However, they've played each other a ton early in the season and I expect the offenses to be ready here in the hitter-friendly Truist Park.

✅ Zach Eflin and Charlie Morton have faced each other before, and these two pitchers have faced the opposing offenses six and seven times, respectively. While they have both had moderate success, both lineups know exactly what to expect and I expect both the Braves and Phillies to have early success. This number is extremely low and suggests at least one ace on the mound. That's simply not the case and the over is the only play worth considering.

✅If you're looking for a lean on the moneyline, the Atlanta Braves should prevail in this matchup. They've hit Zach Eflin well in the past and the big bats are playing well right now. The Braves have an advantage in the bullpen and will be hungry to win this one after the Phillies have gotten the best of them in the recent past.

📈 Over is 6-1 in Phillies last 7 games as a road underdog.

📈 Over is 6-0 in Braves last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

✅ We’re still getting a very friendly number on Zach Davies starts, as he started the season off a bit cold and is still working to get back to his baseline. The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the few worst teams in all of baseball and rank 25th against right-handed pitching with a .291 wOBA and 24% strikeout rate.

✅ The Cubs are on fire right now and are in a great position to take a few steps up in the division. The Pirates are easily the worst team in the NL Central and they’re facing a Cubs team that's swinging red-hot sticks.

✅ Pittsburgh Pirates SP Trevor Cahill would only find his way into a handful on MLB rotations, as he isn't very good at this point in his career. He's allowed a .329 combined wOBA over the last three seasons and has serious issues with the long ball. The Cubs are leading off with Joc Pederson and have a lethal lineup from start to finish. Expect Cahill and the Pirates bullpen to struggle.

📈 Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.

📉 Pirates are 1-6 in their last 7 games on grass.