Super Bowl Prop Bets Overview
With the Super Bowl comes every prop bet imaginable, and I’ll be covering a plethora…read more
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The NFL is the number one wagered upon sport in America and finding quality free picks is not an overly easy thing to find. We pride ourselves on being ready to offer quality predictions and everything else you need as you begin your journey into the world of legalized sports betting in America, starting with NFL.
The most popular type of sports betting for NFL is “straight betting” or “flat betting,” which refers to taking one side against a set point spread or betting over or under the set point total for a given game.
A point spread is a number of “imaginary” points which a favored team is laying to the underdog. The point spread is labeled imaginary because it is not tangible outside of wagering and does not have bearing on the actual game itself.
A point spread is a general point differential of the final score, as determined by the oddsmakers. It is labeled the general point differential because it is not specifically created to be exactly predictive of the outcome but instead to inspire betting action on both sides.
Here is a hypothetical game and point spread:
This means the Browns are favored and laying 3.5 “imaginary” points on the point spread. In order for a wager on the Browns to win or “cover the spread,” the team would have to win by at least four points. Any outcome in which the Browns lost the game or won the game by fewer than four points would mean wagers on the Steelers would be winners.
The figure in parenthesis is the “vig” or “juice.” This is the additional amount the bettor pays to the bookmaker on a losing wager as a fee for booking the bets, per $100 wagered.
Our NFL expert picks (mostly focusing on NFL picks against spread) will help guide you through what to expect from a point differential standpoint and which NFL picks with spread are set too high or too low.
A point on the is the figure the oddsmakers create for the total points scored in a given game. The bettor has the option to bet over or under the given total and to determine a win or loss, simply add together the points scored by both teams.
In our example above, if the total for the Browns vs Steelers game were set at 45, that would be reflected in the listing for the game. Instead of displaying the underdog receiving the same amount of points as the favorite is laying, the betting line would often appear as follows:
Let’s say our final score of the game is the Browns 27 and the Steelers 20. With 47 points scored, wagers on the over would be winners and wagers on the under would be losers.
Overs will be the more common wagers in NFL predictions but there are certainly spots to attack unders as well. Our NFL expert picks will help guide you as to how each team should be expected to fare in their matchups and whether to expect a high or low scoring game in relation to the betting total.
A money line wager is one in which the bettor is laying or taking odds instead of a point spread. This means there is no requirement for margin of victory, only a win or loss in the game that is paid out in an odds based format.
While this type of wager is far more common in sports like Major League Baseball, Mixed Martial Arts and Boxing, it can play a part in NFL betting as well.
In our example of the Steelers and Browns above, a 3.5 point favorite in the NFL would carry money line odds of approximately -175 with the underdog being approximately +155 on the come back.
This means that a wager to win $100 on the Browns would require a risk of $175. A wager on the Steelers would return $155 for every $100 wagered on a winning bet.
A movement in point spread is accompanied by a movement in the money line odds. For example, if the Browns were only a 2 point favorite, their money line would be approximately -130 while Pittsburgh would drop to approximately +110 on the come back. An example in the other direction would be if the Browns were a 7 point favorite, their money line would increase to approximately -330 with Pittsburgh being approximately +250 on the come back.
Our free NFL expert picks picks will usually have an against the spread prediction, but keep an eye out for potential money line expert picks as there will be the occasional spot where getting plus odds with an underdog is more advantageous than taking the points.
Parlay betting in the NFL is combining two or more wagers into one singular bet to receive a better odds payout, assuming all pieces or “legs” of the parlay are winners. A parlay requires all pieces or legs to win in order for the parlay bet to be a winner.
The general payout on parlays is found below with number of legs and odds paid out to winners
With our running example of Browns (-3.5 and 45) and Steelers and the final score being 27-20 in favor of the Browns, a parlay with the Browns and over would pay out $260 for every $100 wagered. Most of our NFL predictions are not focusing on parlay bets but from time to time you might get some picks and parlays recommended.
A teaser is a parlay of sorts that does not have increased odds in payout on a two team teaser but does have an increase in odds when going beyond two teams. This type of bet allows the bettor to move or “tease” lines by six points (There are also 6.5 and 7 point teasers available).
In our example above, a two team teaser of the Browns (move to +2.5) and the over (move to 39) would be a winner. With the movement of the lines, there are more ways to win, but they all must be perfect. In the same example, a teaser of the Steelers (move to +9.5) and the under (move to 51) would also be a winner.
Beware the teaser bet. While it is fun and gives a wider range of winners, it is considered by many to be a sucker bet and not an avenue to get carried away with. Don’t expect any teaser bets in our NFL predictions for this week.
Prop bets, short for proposition bets, are wagers with set odds on things involved in an NFL game that do not relate to the final score. This betting form is fun but rarely used in expert NFL picks, simply because they are very hard to predict.
These can range from dumb luck 50/50 outcomes like the pre game coin toss and how long it takes for the national anthem to be sung to more predictive things such as the first team to score or player props for given players statistical output.
Our example game would have had props such as:
First team to score
Baker Mayfield passing touchdowns:
At US sportsbonus, we will offer free NFL expert picks straight up for every single playoff game, what to watch for in each game and thoughts on player props. NFL playoff time is truly the pinnacle of sports and the most intense sporting time of the year. Our experts will have hours spent on covering everything pertinent in these games so you don’t have to come up with NFL playoff predictions yourself. Free NFL expert picks every week brought to you by US sportsbonus.
Hands down the largest sporting event of the year, it is treated as such by our experts. The game itself will feature the largest breakdown of the season so you are armed with everything you could need to fire off your Super Bowl wagers. Each individual skill position player will be covered so player props will be a breeze and the culmination of the NFL season is as fun as possible. Expect a handful of NFL picks vs spread and a few other free NFL picks for this amazing event.
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