UFC Vegas 20 – Gane vs Rozenstruick & More Predictions
26 February 2021
UFC Vegas 20 will be the third of three consecutive Fight Night cards featuring a heavyweight main event. This one features the two fighters with the least amount to UFC experience, but perhaps the highest ceilings of the six heavyweight fighters.
Ciryl Gane has won all four of his UFC bouts, while Jair Rozenstruick has won five of six with the lone loss coming to next up title challenger Francis Ngannou.
There is little question that Rozenstruick has fought the more difficult competition, but Gane checks in as a significant betting favorite, and we should get a fun clash.
For Rozenstruick, he will likely need to win via KO if he is to win this fight. He is a seasoned kickboxer with a limited grappling skill set, but packs power and accuracy in his strikes. He is not a high volume striker so winning a decision on points seems to be a far-fetched outcome. His scenario is not entirely different from the one Derrick Lewis faced in last week’s headliner against Curtis Blaydes.
Ciryl Gane brought a striking pedigree to the UFC, but has shown a rounded skill set once he arrived. He showed competent grappling and submission attacks and has even won two of his fights via submission. He does pack pop in his strikes, but I believe he will be at a power disadvantage. What he loses in that department however, he will make up for being the busier striker as well as the more defensively responsible striker. He will also be the fighter that may look to take the fight to the floor, where Rozenstruick will be at his greatest disadvantage.
✅ All in all I believe the main event line is a bit too wide with Gane sitting as a -265 favorite. It is not too wide to the point that there will be a dedicated play for it, but if seeking action on the main event, the most value laden play would be Rozenstruick ITD at +295.
Dedicated UFC Vegas 20 Predictions
The remainder of the fight card brings quality, but the card did suffer two lost fights this week, bringng the total number of fights down to 11. The bright side is that there is not a single fight on the card that projects to be a snoozer and we will have no shortage of action.
We will have seven plays on this card, so let’s get to them.
Magomed Ankalaev -355 vs Nikita Krylov
Fight is at 205 lbs and is -195 to end inside the distance.
Read the full Ankalaev vs Krylov Prediction
Betting Play: Ankalaev ITD -115
Alex Caceres -215 vs Jason Croom
Fight is at 145 lbs and is +135 to end inside the distance.
Read the full Caceres vs Croom prediction
Betting Play: Croom +175
Alexander Hernandez -190 vs Thiago Moises
Fight is at 155 lbs and is +130 to end inside the distance.
Read the full Hernandez vs Moises prediction
Betting Play: Hernandez -190
Sabina Mazo -210 vs Alexis Davis
Fight is at 135 lbs and is +255 to end inside the distance.
Read the full Mazo vs Davis prediction
Betting Play: Mazo -210
Ronnie Lawrence -165 vs Vince Cachero
Fight is at 135 lbs and is +185 to end inside the distance.
Read the full Lawrence vs Cachero prediction
Betting Play: Lawrence -165
Dustin Jacoby -180 vs Maxim Grishin
Fight is at 205 lbs and is -120 to end inside the distance.
Read the full Jacoby vs Grishin prediction
Betting Plays: Jacoby Round 1 win +400 and fight ends ITD -120.
Other Fight Predictions
👊 Ramazan Kurmagomedov via KO over Alex Oliveira
👊 Ashley Yoder via submission over Angela Hill
👊 Pedro Munhoz via decision over Jimmie Rivera
👊 Mayra Bueno Silva via KO over Montana De la Rosa