Alexander Hernandez vs Thiago Moises Predictions

February 25, 2021

Alexander Hernandez -190 vs Thiago Moises

Fight is at 155 lbs and is +130 to end inside the distance.
Betting Play: Hernandez -190

This fight feels like it will be a very one sided affair, and in turn that the betting line is not wide enough.

Alexander Hernandez is a very well rounded fighter and fantastic athlete. He will have an advantage in every area of this fight, save for submission attack.

While Thiago Moises continues to show improvement, I think this stylistic matchup at this point in his career is simply something he’s not ready for. He is completely a BJJ fighter at his base, and has shown how dangerous he can be with submission attack, it is unlikely he will be able to implement that game against Hernandez.

Hernandez is world’s better in the wrestling department, and if a fighter is taking the fight to the floor, it will be him. He is also a sound grappler with very good positional awareness and it seems a long-shot he puts himself into a bad position that could lead to a submission.

The most likely outcome however is the fight takes place exclusively on the feet and Hernandez runs away with the fight in that aspect.

✅ This fight is the grappler’s version of just having a puncher’s chance, and that is a submission from Moises that is highly unlikely to come. Attack the value on Hernandez.

Betting Play: Hernandez -190
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.