Alex Caceres vs Kevin Croom Predictions

26 February 2021

UFC Predictions with TJ Calkins

Alex Caceres -215 vs Jason Croom

Fight is at 145 lbs and is +135 to end inside the distance.

Betting Play: Croom +175

I have been trying to wrap my head around the line on this fight since it opened, and while it has come down from -300 to -215, it is still too wide.

Caceres has shown improvement, or at least had improved results in recent fights, I do not like this stylistic matchup for him. Caceres is probably the tighter striker, but not to a level that he will be able to control the fight with that advantage.

Jason Croom has power in his right hand and is quite willing to crash forward to try to land a bomb, or at least initiate grappling exchanges. Caceres is a fighter that has been beaten by grapplers in the past, and if the majority of this fight takes place on the floor, it will be no different.

Even if the entirety of the fight takes place standing, I don’t believe Caceres has a significant advantage in that department, and is certainly not the more likely fighter to find a finish. It should be noted the ITD line for Croom is a significantly lower price than it is for Caceres.

✅ With Croom holding advantages on the floor and on the fence and being the more dangerous standup striker, he will be an underdog play on the flat line.

Betting Play: Croom +175

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