UFC Vegas 21 – Edwards vs Muhammad & More Predictions

11 March 2021

Last updated: 18 March 2021 at 4:48 am

After a UFC 259 card that fell somewhat short of expectations, we move forward to this UFC Vegas 21 fight card on Saturday. This card is not one anyone would deem star studded, but there are some quality matchups, and more importantly, some quality bets to make.

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We will not have a wager on the Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad main event, but that is more due to the line being a bit too wide than it is because of lack of a lean.

Leon Edwards has been out of action for a year and a half, but that is not from lack of trying. He has had four fights fall through, before getting Belal Muhammad on short notice for this main event.

After having a fight with Tyron Woodley fall through a year ago, Edwards was scheduled to fight Khamzat Chimaev on three separate occasions, including on this card. Chimaev’s future is up in the air at the moment, but Edwards finally gets to push forward and look to improve on his eight fight winning streak.

Edwards has beaten some notable names on this streak, including Rafael Dos Anjos, Gunnar Nelson and Vincente Luque. He has faced a significantly higher level of competition than that of Belal Muhammad and the rounded fighter is the one that I expect to have his hand raised.

The taller and longer Edwards is the tighter striker, and he has made real strides with his grappling game as well. While Muhammad’s wrestling may or may not be an advantage, that is the one area he may be able to outshine Edwards. However, even if that comes to fruition, controlling him on the mat will be much more difficult.

Edwards is likely the fighter to dictate where this fight takes place, and I expect that to be very much in the stand up. We will see Edwards out class Muhammad on the feet, much like Geoff Neal did. While the -270 betting line is too wide for my comfort, if wagering on this main event, take the Edwards side.

On to the UFC picks and betting plays. We will have four plays on this UFC Vegas 21 Fight Night card. Three favorites whose lines are not wide enough will be paired with one striker vs grappler matchup that we will play the fight ending inside the distance. Let’s get to them.

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Other Fight Predictions

👊 Misha Cirkunov via submission over Ryan Spann 👊

👊 Jonathan Martinez via decision over Davey Grant 👊

👊 Manel Kape via KO over Matheus Nicolau 👊

👊 Angela Hill via decision over Ashley Yoder 👊

👊 Charles Jourdain via KO over Marcel Rojo 👊

👊 JJ Aldrich via decision over Cortney Casey 👊

👊 Jason Witt via submission over Matthew Semelsberger 👊

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TJ Calkins

TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.