Gloria de Paula vs Jinh Yu Frey Predictions

March 10, 2021

Gloria de Paula -185 vs Jinh Yu Frey

Fight is at 115 lbs and is +245 to end inside the distance.


UFC Fight Night Predictions: Edwards vs Muhammad and MORE

Betting Play: De Paula -185
Betting Play: de Paula -185

Even with a weight cut, size matters in MMA, and the lack of an atomweight division is the undoing of Jinh Yu Frey in the UFC. The natural atomweight is at a physical disadvantage in essentially every strawweight fight she takes, and this fight is no different.

Frey will be giving up 2” of height, 3” of reach and a strength advantage to debutant Gloria de Paula. De Paula is very well rounded and is a very sound Thai striker and she should be set up for success in her initial trip to the octagon. She has perhaps a slightly lean frame, but all signs are she carries a great deal of strength and strong hips, and the 25 year old is truly a bright prospect.

De Paula will press forward with stiff strikes and is quite sound and dangerous in the clinch. Her strikes are truly crisp and come with real pop, and striking at range would make for a brutal night for Frey. Equally as bad for Frey would be clinching with de Paula, which would see some nasty knees landed on Frey.

I believe de Paula has every advantage in this fight, save for if she were to end up in bottom position on the mat. I don’t believe she is in much danger of that, as I mentioned the strong hips combined with her showing an ability to scramble well. She will dictate where this fight takes place and I truly think she is in play for a knockout.

The 25 year old de Paula will start her UFC journey with a convincing win, while the 35 year old Frey may be on the way out. It is not fully Frey’s fault, as she is a sound fighter, but there is no atomweight division in which she can be competitive. The +350 ITD line on de Paula is tempting, but the -185 flat line simply brings more value.

TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.