UFC 263 Predictions & More

UFC 263 brings us a pair of title fights and additionally good fight volume. We get 14 fights in totality, however we have some wide betting lines. Eight of the 14 fights have betting lines north of -200. All in all, the card should be a sound one, and we will have some sound betting spots, which we will get to in just a bit. 

The main event features a rematch between Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori for the middleweight title. The first fight came in 2018, with Adesanya earning a split decision win. There have been developments in both fighters careers since that time, but that mainly includes both fighters developing and moving all the way up the ranks. Now Adesanya has claimed and defended the belt, and Vettori gets his chance. I do not see this fight playing out much different than the first one. Both fighters skill sets are relatively improved, but they are also generally the same. Adesanya will continue to be the world’s better striker that will look to keep the fight standing. Vettori will look to wrestle and win rounds via control. A finish from Vettori would truly be surprising. Ultimately, Adesanysa will once again out strike Vettori. We will see Vettori try and try again to clinch and ground the fight, and how much success he is able to have later in the fight will be the determining factor. The betting line is accurate and I lean Adesanya, but no play on this main event. 

We will have four betting plays on the night, two of which on the main card. Those will both be ITD plays on favorites whose lines are too wide to comfortably play flat. On the under card we will have two favorites bringing what I deem to be considerable value on the betting line. 

Let’s get to the UFC 263 picks.

Fight is five rounds at 125 lbs and is -140 to end inside the distance. 

For the flyweight championship. 

Fight is at 205 lbs and is -285 to end inside the distance. 

Fight is at 155 lbs and is +110 to end inside the distance.

Fight is at 145 lbs and is +175 to end inside the distance. 

👊 Carlos Felipe via KO over Jake Collier

👊 Fares Ziam via KO over Luigi Vendramini

👊 Chase Hooper via submission over Steven Peterson

👊 Terrance McKinney via KO over Matt Frevola

👊 Pannie Kianzad via decision over Alexis Davis

👊 Jojo Calderwood via decision over Lauren Murphy

👊 Darren Stewart via KO over Eryk Anders

👊 Demian Maia via submission over Belal Muhammad

👊 Leon Edwards via KO over Nate Diaz

👊 Israel Adesnaya via decision over Marvin Vettori