UFC 258 – Usman vs Burns Predictions

February 10, 2021

This UFC 258 pay per view card will have a difficult time living up to its most recent predecessor on Fight Island, but still offers the potential for excitement.

The main event matchup between Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns is certainly the selling point on this card, as the rest of the pay per view card is certainly not full of names that will sell the product.

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UFC 258 Preview: Usman vs Burns Betting Picks

While the return of Maycee Barber in an awesome matchup is a great fight in the co-main event, each step down the fight card gets a little more rough when looking at it through a pay per view lens.

Of course, the cancellation of the Pedro Munhoz vs Jimmie Rivera bout is doing the UFC 258 card no favors. The star power is simply lacking when the other two scheduled fights have Ian Heinisch and Maki Pitolo in them.

As for the UFC 258 undercard, it is headlined by a fun scrap between Bobby Green and Jim Miller. The undercard additionally features BJJ ace Rodolfo Viera and rounded Belal Muhammad in what should be a relatively easy matchup for each.

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Finally, the most important part. We will have four plays on this UFC 258 fight card that includes three plus money spots. There are a few more big plus figure potential plays that were close to making the cut, and I will touch on them as well. Let’s get to the UFC picks action!

Alexa Grasso -140 vs Maycee Barber

Betting Play: Barber +110

Fight is at 125 lbs and is +175 to end inside the distance.

Julian Marquez -160 vs Maki Pitolo

Betting Play: Marquez +160

Fight is at 170 lbs and is -170 to end inside the distance.

Bobby Green -265 vs Jim Miller

Betting Play: Green ITD

Fight is at 155 lbs and is +175 to end inside the distance.

Miranda Maverick -140 vs Gillian Robertson

Betting Play: Maverick -140

Fight is at 125 lbs and is +115 to end inside the distance.

UFC 258 Almost Bets

✅ Gilbert Burns is a rightful underdog in the main event against Kamaru Usman, but he is without question the more capable finisher of the two. He brings the heavier hands and the much better chance at a one shot KO. He also brings a truly world class BJJ game that might bring difficulty to the wildly high level wrestler in Usman. The value in this fight is the +475 ITD line on Burns, as he is quite capable of finishing anyone, and the value is strong.

✅ Rodolfo Viera’s BJJ is as high level as it gets in the MMA realm, and Anthony Hernandez will have little answer for that aspect of his game. The -240 ITD line on Viera is just slightly more than I want to pay, but Viera getting the job done early is easily the most likely outcome.

✅ Poliana Viana has certainly been underwhelming in her UFC tenure, but she did snap a three fight drought with an armbar win in her last fight. While Mallory Martin is less exciting but probably more disciplined, it is Viana that offers a real finish threat. Viana is easily both more likely for a KO and for a submission, so the +355 ITD line is the value in this fight.

✅ Ricky Simon is a rightful large favorite over Brian Kelleher, but it is Kelleher that offers the true threat of a finish in this fight. Kelleher has a nasty guillotine that could put the wrestler in trouble, and is easily the more dangerous striker. Of course Simon could easily ride takedowns to a decision call, but the value here would be Kelleher ITD at +405.

UFC 258 – Other Fight Predicitons

👊 Kelvin Gastelum via decision over Ian Heinisch

👊 Belal Muhammad via KO over Dhiego Lima

👊 Phil Rowe via KO over Gabe Green

👊 Andre Ewell via decision over Chris Gutierrez

TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.