Tom Aspinall vs Serghei Spivac Prediction

September 2, 2021

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8:00 PM ET Sep 4
Tom Aspinall vs Serghei Spivac
Aspinall ITD
-155
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Tom Aspinall -250 vs Serghei Spivac

Fight is at heavyweight and is -195 to end inside the distance. 

Betting Pick: Aspinall ITD -155

✅ Serghei Spivac has found success against one dimensional fighters after a rocky start to his UFC tenure. He is generally a fighter that needs to earn takedowns and use his top game on the floor to find success. Of course there are exceptions as he out struck the aged pure grappler in Aleksei Oleinik in his last fight. All three of his other wins in the promotion were against anemic wrestlers and grapplers in Tai Tuivasa, Carlos Felipe and Jared Vanderaa. When he fought a strong striker in Walt Harris he was knocked out in under a minute. When he fought a strong grappler in Marcin Tybura, he was taken down and controlled. For the first time, he faces a complete mix of striker and grappler in Tom Aspinall and this fight simply sets up terribly for him. 

✅ Aspinall, who I still believe will earn the heavyweight title one day, walks into a fight where he does not face many, if any, disadvantages. Aspinall is the superior striker and boxer. He brings power and is going to knock Spivac out in the stand up I that is where the majority of the fight takes place. If Aspinall is taken down, he is a very high end BJJ fighter and will e able to return to his feet, or more likely find a sweep. Aspinall on top would be an absolute nightmare for Spivac while the same does not hold true in reverse. Aspinall is dangerous and a finisher no matter where the fight takes place. The same does not hold true for his opponent. 

✅ If Spivac is unable to get Aspinall down and control him, he is going to get touched up in the stand up, and ultimately finished by punches. If he is able to get Aspinall down, he will be in danger from the superior BJJ fighter. In any event, easily the most likely outcome of this fight is an Aspinall finish. The -155 ITD line does not offer the best value we’ve ever seen, but the likelihood of the outcome makes the play quite worth it. 

Betting Pick: Aspinall ITD -155

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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.