UFC 278 Picks & Promo

August 18, 2022

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11:00 PM ET Aug 20
AJ Fletcher vs Ange Loosa
Fletcher
-155
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1:00 AM ET Aug 21
Jared Gordon vs Leo Santos
Santos ITD
+400
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3:00 AM ET Aug 21
Merab Dvalishvili vs Jose Aldo
Dvalishvili
-130
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3:30 AM ET Aug 21
Paulo Costa vs Luke Rockhold
Costa ITD
-160
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UFC 278 is a solid pay per view event originating from the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. The promotion being in Utah marks the second straight week on the road. This means fans will be in attendance, which of course always adds an element to live events. As always for pay per views, the early prelims will be streaming live on ESPN+. The televised prelims will air on ESPN and ESPN+. The pay per view portion streams on ESPN+.

The 13 fight card takes place on Saturday, August 20th, 2022. The first fighters will make the walk to the octagon at 6PM EST.

The card is headlined by a title fight at welterweight. Longtime champion Kamaru Usman welcomes Leon Edwards for a rematch of a fight from seven years ago. The co-main event is going to be a short one at middleweight. Paulo Costa will look to test the chin of Luke Rockhold, while Rockhold will look for ground and pound. Either way, even making the second round would be a surprise. Also on the pay per view portion is Merab Dvalishvili vs Jose Aldo at the top of the bantamweight division. We also get to see rising stars in action such as Tyson Pedro, Alexandr Romanov, Miranda Mavarick, AJ Fletcher and Amir Albazi. 

 As always, check out all of our UFC Picks.

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We have four official bets for UFC 278. It is once again a low risk, high reward slate. We will have three minus figures, but none above -160. We also have a significant +400 return wager that looks fantastic. Any of these are eligible for the above offer from DraftKings. Simply follow the link and wager $5 on any of these bets. Whether you win or lose, you will instantly receive a $200 credit!

✅ Pick - Paulo Costa ITD -160 over Luke Rockhold

Luke Rockhold returns to the octagon at 37 for the first time in three years and cuts to 185 for the first time in four years. This is not the Luke Rockhold of the distant past. He has been brutally knocked out in three of his last four fights. Costa is arguably the most dangerous striker he's faced in that span, and will test the chin of Rockhold repeatedly. Costa has expressed he is already on weight so this shapes up to be a very short fight and hopefully the last time Rockhold misguidedly makes the walk to a cage. 

✅ Pick - Merab Dvalishvili -130 over Jose Aldo

Dvalishvili is on a surge, winning seven straight fights and working his way up the rankings. The cardio machine is all action and relentless. His ability to wrestle hard for the duration of a fight is something few can do, and it will be much to his advantage here. Aldo will remain the better and more dangerous striker, but he does not bring the early explosiveness that gave Dvalishvili difficulty in his most recent fight. Aldo also does not have a large amount of movement, which will make entries somewhat easy for Dvalishvili. Look for Dvalishvili to wear down Aldo with his wrestling and progressively run away with this fight. 

✅ Pick - Leo Santos ITD +400 over Jared Gordon

We absolutely know what to expect from Leo Santos at this stage of his career. He either needs a slow paced fight if he is to make the final horn or he needs a finish before his gas tank goes empty. We saw the latter in his most recent fight with Clay Guida. Santos hurt Guida bad and emptied the tank trying to finish. That fight should have been stopped but it instead went the other way on an exhausted Santos. Gordon is a fighter that uses variety, and has never won a UFC fight without a takedown. He now faces one of the best BJJ players MMA has to offer. Gordon has also been stung in the striking previously, and Santos throws crisp and powerful straight shots. All avenues set up for Santos to have an opportunity to finish in the first two rounds, but he will be the one finished if not. With that being the case, we will bet Santos ITD with the four to one return. 

✅ Pick - AJ Fletcher -155 over Ange Loosa

AJ Fletcher is an exciting prospect that did not have his UFC debut go his way. After a fantastic flying knee win on DWCS, Fletcher lost a decision to highly durable and conditioned Matthew Semelsberger. He will not be facing the same weaponized cardio in this fight with Ange Looza. Loosa is eating over eight significant strikes per minute in UFC fights, where he is yet to find a win. Fletcher is the more dynamic striker and better wrestler. The variety will be the difference for Fletcher after 15 minutes if he does not find a finish before then. 

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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.