Will the Green Bay Packers Hold on To the No. 1 Seed in The NFC?

December 14, 2020

The Green Bay Packers got an early Christmas present Sunday from Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. With the Eagles win over the New Orleans Saints Sunday and the Packers win over the Detroit Lions, Green Bay now owns the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

While being the 1-seed does not hold the same weight as it usually does, it still has value. It will be nice not to have to travel during the playoffs. With few-to-no fans at most games, home-field advantage does not mean as much.  

But the most important thing about being the 1-seed this year is that you are the only team that has a bye in the first week of the postseason. A week off can go a long way to getting everyone back to full strength and ready for a postseason run.

So, yeah—being the No. 1 seed and getting that week off can be critical to a team looking to make a deep run.

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Once a team is in the 1-seed, they certainly do not want to let it go. However, circumstances led to the Saints losing it. Could a similar fate befall the Green Bay Packers?

Is there a chance they lose a key game or two down the stretch and lose the 1-seed?

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How the Rest of the Season Will Go For The Green Bay Packers

Of course, the only way the Packers can lock down the 1-seed in the NFC is to win out. With a 10-3 record (same as the Saints), they sit in the top spot for now because they own the tiebreaker. That means there is no room for error.

So – can they do it?

Green Bay is scheduled to play the Carolina Panthers this week, the Tennessee Titans the next, and the Chicago Bears in the regular-season finale.

Taking down the Panthers this week should not be a problem. Carolina has lost seven of their last eight but could be dangerous if Christian McCaffrey ends up playing.

But even if he does, the Panthers defense is no match for the Packers offense. Green Bay is favored by 8.5 (via DraftKings) and will likely win by more.

However, the Tennessee Titans could be a bit more problematic with how Derrick Henry is running the ball. The Green Bay run defense is not bad (12th; 109.7 yards/game allowed), but Henry has decimated better defenses.

The Titans game is going to be a tough one and could really go either way.

Green Bay should not have too much trouble with the Chicago Bears in their regular-season finale. Then again, if the version of the Bears that destroyed the Houston Texans last week shows up, it might not be as easy a win as expected.

Best case scenario? The Packers run the table and finish the regular season with a 13-3 record. If they do that, they will have secured the 1-seed in the NFC. But they could very easily go 2-1, which would open the door for the Saints to take the 1-seed back.

So – How Should You Bet?

Betting Play: Green Bay Packers to be the No.1 seed in the NFC.

If the Packers (-185; odds via BetMGM) lose a game, the door will be open for the Saints (+175) and the Los Angeles Rams (+1400).

Without Drew Brees, it is highly unlikely the Saints pull off the upset against the Kansas City Chiefs. They might even have a hard time with the Minnesota Vikings the following week.

Since the Saints are already in the playoffs, it is more important they get Drew Brees back healthy rather than sooner. New Orleans has said they will not rush him back.

That means we may not see Drew Brees until the playoffs, and the Saints could lose a game or two down the stretch.

As for the Rams, since the Packers own the tiebreaker, they would need to run the table and for Green Bay to drop two. The Packers might lose one, but they certainly are not going to lose two.

The Rams have a shot, but not a very good one.

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