US Open 2020 Odds – Picks and Predictions
02 June 2020
Last updated: 09 September 2020 at 9:01 am
The US Open is typically the final major tournament of the tennis season, but has become the second major of the year in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. With the players having spent time in New York during last week’s relocated Western and Southern Open, the virus is likely to be contained as players look to take advantage of the opportunity presented by several key players being out.
Betting Pick: Novak Djokovic -125 to win the tournament
US Open 2020 Field
Right away, bettors will notice the key names missing from the 2020 US Open draw. Only seven of the top 10 players on the ATP Tour will be attending the event, with the absences of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal jumping off of the tournament bracket. Their decision to forgo the tournament has elevated Dominic Thiem to the second seed in the draw, enabling him to avoid tournament favorite Novak Djokovic until a potential meeting in the final.
Even without Federer and Nadal, though, the US Open field is a loaded one. Below Djokovic and Thiem are players like Sascha Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, who are looking to find more consistent form at majors despite their immense talents. Up and comers like Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime have moved into the top 15 in the seeding due to the opt-outs heading into the tournament and could make deep runs as well.
The area of the field that is really impacted by this year’s circumstances is the lower level entrants. Normally, these players would have a chance to earn their way into the tournament through qualifiers, giving them a chance to find some form before being tasked with opposing main draw players. With no qualifiers this year, many Challenger level players are being thrown into the main draw, where one has to wonder if they can keep up with the top players in the tournament.
Odds to win US Open
This year’s US Open odds are different than the ones that bettors see heading into the tournament in most years. There are typically a group of favorites headlined by Djokovic, Nadal and Federer that are all at similar odds to win. But with Federer and Nadal both out of US Open, Djokovic is a clear favorite to win his second major in two tries in 2020. Here is a look at the odds to win the 2020 US Open.
|Player||Odds to win (DraftKings Sportsbook)|
|Alex de Minaur||+8000|
You will notice that Novak Djokovic is a heavy favorite to win this year’s US Open, with bettors needing to lay $125 to win $100 on him to lift the trophy at the end of the fortnight. Of course, Djokovic has won all 23 of the matches he has played in 2020 heading into the US Open, which might not make that a terrible bet.
Further down the list, a player like Milos Raonic could be an interesting selection at +1700. Raonic has played some electric tennis in 2020, making a deep run in the Australian Open and reaching the final of the Cincinnati Open that was located in New York. Raonic even managed to take a set from Djokovic in the Cincinnati final, with the abnormally fast courts in New York and his massive serve making him worth a look as a value play at long odds.
For those looking for a longshot, Matteo Berrettini at +4000 could be your man. The Italian has progressed all the way into the top 10 in the ATP Tour rankings, and has earned the six seed in the US Open. He was a semifinalist in last year’s US Open, winning one of the best matches of 2019 over Gael Monfils in the quarters to get there. Berrettini should be another beneficiary of the fast court conditions in New York, and could swoop in to steal the tournament if Djokovic suffers a fall.
2020 US Open Draw Preview
The top quarter of the draw belongs to Novak Djokovic, and it looks to be set up for him to get through it without much resistance at all. The top seeded player that Djokovic could see up to the round of 16 is John Isner, who is seeded 16th and has dropped seven straight matches to Djokovic dating back to 2013. In the quarterfinal round, Djokovic could see Shapovalov or Goffin, but neither of those players figure to pose too big of a threat in a best-of-five set match against the world number one.
The second quarter of the draw could pit Tsitsipas and Zverev against one another in the quarterfinals if they are able to hold serve as the favorites in their matches leading up to that clash. Of course, both Tsitsipas and Zverev has fallen short against inferior competition in majors before, which could open the door for players like Diego Schwartzman and Hubert Hurkacz to make deep runs in their place.
If there was a quarter of the draw that would be deemed the Group of Death, it would be the third quarter of the draw. There are several players who could come out on top of this quarter, with Medvedev, Berrettini, Andrey Rublev and Grigor Dimitrov all occupying this section of the bracket. Medvedev would be the favorite to win this quarter, but Berrettini has experience moving through his quarter in the last US Open, while Rublev could be an attractive dark horse selection.
In the bottom quarter of the draw, Dominic Thiem is set up well to advance through to the quarterfinals. If he gets there, he would face a stiff challenge from a player like Bautista-Agut or Milos Raonic, both of whom have already had success on these courts in last week’s Cincinnati Open. Both Bautista-Agut and Raonic won the first set of their matches with Djokovic last week, and could very well advance to the final to seek revenge on the world number one in this tournament.
US Open 2020 Pick: Novak Djokovic -125 to win the tournament
While taking a player to win a Grand Slam at this price is often considered a poor value, it feels entirely justified when dealing with Novak Djokovic. Without his top two competitors in the tournament, the rest of the field just has not had enough success against Djokovic to justify pulling the trigger on some of the longshots in the field.
Djokovic has won 23 out of 23 matches heading into the US Open. And with players having failed to beat him in both the best-of-three and best-of-five format this year, Djokovic does not seem beatable here. His COVID-19 scare earlier in the summer has not slowed down his on-court form and bettors can expect to cash in on Djokovic moving one step closer to catching Roger Federer for the most majors in tennis history.
Betting Pick: Novak Djokovic -125 to win the tournament
There is still hope for the last Grand Slam of the year, US Open. If everything goes according to plan there will be 3 Grand Slams played this year. The cancelation of Wimbledon is confirmed and with the Australian Open just finishing in time before the pandemic started to spread worldwide there are the French Open and US Open still in the calendar.
French Open has been moved and is supposed to play just before the US Open. With countries slowly opening up their borders and people going back to a somewhat normal life there is a decent chance that we will see the top players battle it out on the largest tennis complex in the world – Flushing Meadows. Full name is actually Flushing Meadows–Corona Park.
So let’s take a look at the odds (from DraftKings) for this years US Open (if it happens). FYI – All bets will be voided and all wagers to be returned in case the event is canceled.
|Alex De Minaur||+6600|
|Juan Martin Del Potro||+8000|
There is still hope for the last Grand Slam of the year, US Open. If everything goes according to plan there will be 3 Grand Slams played this year. The cancelation of Wimbledon is confirmed and with the Australian Open just finishing in time before the pandemic started to spread worldwide there are the French Open and US Open still in the calendar. French Open has been moved and is supposed to play just before the US Open. With countries slowly opening up their borders and people going back to a somewhat normal life there is a decent chance that we will see the top players battle it out on the largest tennis complex in the world – Flushing Meadows. Full name is actually Flushing Meadows–Corona Park.
So let’s take a look at the odds for this year’s US Open (if it happens). FYI – All bets will be voided and money returned in case the event is canceled.
Djokovic is the clear favorite at +150, Nadal runner up favorite at +400 followed by last year’s US Open finalist Daniil Medvedev and this year’s Australian Open finalist Dominic Thiem at +700. Federer (+800) should be mentioned in this group of candidates that are expected to win. Federer will be 39 when the US Open starts!!!
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The Big Three
In a normal season, these odds would probably be quite accurate but 2020 is far from normal. The big question of how motivated the Big Three (Djokovic, Nadal, Federer). Djokovic and Federer being fathers and having had the chance to spend more time with their families than ever before. Will life on the ATP tour be as attractive as before and considering that none of the three is getting any younger there is a big question mark around Djokovic and Federer. Nadal is a phenomenon of his own so no risk for lack of motivation there but Nadal is a player who needs matches to get his game right.
The winner of the long break is probably Roger (even though he is getting old). He is probably the most talented player to ever played the sport and does not need as many practice hours on the court as his rivals. It is uncertain how fast he will rehabilitate from his knee surgery but one fact remains, Roger is still here to win.
The Young Guns
Medvedev, Thiem, Tsitsipias, and Zverev are the players who are one day likely to take over the throne and eventually become the new mega tennis stars.
Medvedev had a fantastic run in the fall in 2019, reaching 7 straight finals including the US Open, lost to Nadal in 5 sets. Since then the young Russian has not reached the same heights.
Thiem is one of the hardest-working players on the tour and his general training routines (running in the Austrian alps) should not be too affected by the season break. The big worry for Thiem is how he sometimes struggles with timing on faster courts (especially on his backhand). If his timing is not rock solid against the best players, he will not go farther than the round of sixteen or quarterfinals.
Zverev has shown before that he has what it takes to beat anyone but unless he has done a lot of work on his mental strength he should not be considered to win a grand slam anytime soon.
Tsitsipas is the opposite of Zverev. He has a weaker game in almost every shot but his mental strength is up there with Nadal and Djokovic. Without the mental strength, you can never become a great champion and after Stefanos won the ATP Finals in 2019 anything is possible in 2020.
Tsitsipas at +1200 is a good bet. If he can build some physical strength on top of fantastic mental strength he will be a force to count on in 2020 and onwards.
Kyrgios, Shapovalov, Rublev and Del Potro.
Kyrgios definitely has he firepower to dethrone anyone on hardcourt and is not a player who needs a lot of practice to perform on the highest level. Betting on Kyrgios, +5000, to win US Open is not a bad choice but keep the stake low as there is a big risk he will disappoint and go out in the early stages of the tournament.
Shapovalov, a big hitter with a strong serve, forehand, and backhand. Denis pretty much has it all but has so far not been able to utilize all his weapons to the max. Shapovalov at +6600 is tempting but probably worth waiting for 2021 before putting any money down on Shapovalov.
Rublev, oh how we like this player. When he turns up the tempo not even Roger can follow. He is one of the most aggressive players on the tour and was the most prominent and promising player of the young guns. I believe this year might be the start of something great for Rublev. Winning the US Open is too much to hope for but keep an eye out for Rublev in the future.
One of the most appreciated players on the tour, Del Potro is destined to return to the big scene after yet another surgery. Del Potro holds one US Open title and when in form and without injuries one of the few players who can challenge the Big Three at any time on any surface. Del Potro winning the US Open in 2020 would be the biggest upset in Grand Slam history but 2020 is a year like no other. Del Potro at +8000 is a fun bet.
Good luck and check back for more updates as we get closer to the US Open to start.