US Open 2021 Odds – Picks and Predictions

August 27, 2021

4:00 PM ET Aug 30
2021 US Open Winner
Novak Djokovic
4:00 PM ET Aug 30
2021 US Open
Daniil Medvedev to win quarter

The 2021 US Open brings a return of normalcy, as the final major of the year is once again taking place in Queens, New York. And the major story from this tournament will be whether or not Novak Djokovic can complete the calendar slam, claiming all four major titles of the 2021 season. But with several top players in fine form heading into the final Grand Slam of the year, Djokovic will have to play his best tennis if he wants to make history. Here, we make our tennis picks ahead of the 2021 US Open.

2021 US Open Draw

Just like in 2020, some of the biggest names in the sport will not be participating in this year’s event. The 2021 US Open field will be without Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem, with various injuries keeping those players out of action for the final major of the year. But the field is still loaded with talent, with the draw creating intrigue across all four quarters of the tournament.

The top quarter of the draw is headlined by Djokovic, who is the favorite to win this tournament. But this quarter does have a few tricky road bumps for the world number one, including his Wimbledon final opponent in Matteo Berrettini. Hubert Hurkacz and Alex De Minaur are also intriguing entrants in this quarter, especially Hurkacz given how well he’s played this year in Miami, Wimbledon and Toronto.

Sascha Zverev headlines the second quarter of the draw, fresh off of his Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati. With how well he has played, the German could very well give Djokovic all he can handle if they meet in the semifinals. But this quarter isn’t a guarantee for Zverev to come out of, as Denis Shapovalov and Pablo Carreno-Busta have both made deep runs here before, and Reilly Opelka’s big serve is something to worry about as well.

The third quarter could be the toughest in the 2021 US Open Draw, as it is headlined by Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev. But the depth in this quarter is the best of any quarter, as Felix Auger-Aliassime, Roberto Bautista-Agut, Nick Kyrgios, and Carlos Alcaraz could all get deep into the draw should either of the top seeds falter.

The fourth quarter of the US Open draw should be Daniil Medvedev’s to lose. His fellow top-eight seed in the quarter is Casper Ruud, whose game is more suited toward clay court tennis. And while there are some potential threats in the form of John Isner and Diego Schwartzman, Medvedev shouldn’t have much trouble navigating this section.

Odds to win US Open

The odds to win the US Open are headlined by Novak Djokovic, who is at -125 to win the tournament. Bettors would have to wager $125 to win $100 on Djokovic, a number that will continue to drop as he racks up wins in New York. Here is the list of odds to win the US Open, as the rest of the field attempts to chase down Djokovic.

PlayerOdds to win (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Novak Djokovic-125
Daniil Medvedev+400
Alexander Zverev+650
Stefanos Tsitsipas+1300
Matteo Berrettini+4000
Denis Shapovalov+5000
Andrey Rublev+6000
Jannik Sinner+6000
Hubert Hurkacz+8000
Lorenzo Musetti+10000
John Isner+10000
Grigor Dimitrov+10000
Felix Auger-Aliassime+13000
Pablo Carreno-Busta+13000
Diego Schwartzman+13000

Behind Djokovic are Medvedev and Zverev, who split the Masters 1000 tournaments in North America leading up to the US Open. Given that they would have to beat Djokovic to win the title, their respective prices of +400 and +650 might be a little low. But there are some more interesting options further down the list of odds to win the tournament.

Among those options are the American servebots that dominated in Toronto, John Isner and Reilly Opelka. They both fell short to Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals and final of that tournament, but at 100/1 and 150/1 to win the tournament respectively, they are worth a look. At much shorter odds is Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has the potential to go to the final here as well.

US Open 2021 Pick: Novak Djokovic -125 to win the tournament

The last time that Novak Djokovic failed to win a major tournament, it was because he launched a ball in frustration and it hit a lineswoman in the throat. Since then, Novak has been untouchable at Grand Slams, and that should continue here. While the -125 price on Djokovic might not be enough to justify betting on him to win the tournament in the eyes of some, he is extremely likely to win this event.

And Djokovic has plenty of motivation on multiple fronts here. In addition to wanting to win the calendar slam and avenge his disqualification from last year’s tournament, Djokovic could win the 21st major of his career. That would put him ahead of Nadal and Djokovic at the top of the list of all-time major winners, further solidifying his argument that he is the greatest of all-time.

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Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is a sports writer and broadcaster from Albany, NY. He has covered sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013.