UFC Vegas 16 Betting Plays Review

09 December 2020

UFC Vegas 23

The UFC Vegas 16 was another card ravaged with cancellations, but our bets stayed intact for the most part. I had an underwhelming night, with a mixture of being off on predictions but also had a hiccup on play selection.

Quick Links

I played a fighter ITD that won a comfortable decision and also shifted off a plus figure ITD fighter to playing the fight ITD. While that won, hindsight tells us comfortably that the play should have been both. Let’s run through them. 

Loss – Gian Villante ITD +145
I have to simply give credit to Jake Collier. He was in better shape for this fight than his last, but that wasn’t the reason he won this fight. I could not get past how much he simply face planted from a single clean shot from Tom Aspinall in his last fight, and I thought he was not going to be able to take a punch at heavyweight. I was wrong, he ate plenty of clean shots from VIllante, and was able to grind out a decision win in what was an entertaining scrap. Props to Collier. 

Win – Topuria/Jackson ends ITD -195 
Topuria flat lined Jackson with the striking quite quickly, and this is a play that won, but also brings regret. My initial play was Topuria ITD +120, but I pivoted off that to ITD in the fight, while I should have just added the play. A win is a win but I left that one on the table. 

Loss – Roman Dolidze ITD -110
This was a tough loss, as Dolidze owned this fight, but Allan was quite tough and survived everything to take the fight to a decision. I knew the line was not remotely wide enough, but got a bit greedy on the ITD move, which did not mitigate the risk at an obscene level. 

Win – Jamahal Hill -170
This fight went exactly as expected, with Hill putting the volume on OSP and additionally showing a killer instinct once he got him hurt. Hill did get the finish but was cruising in any event. 

Loss – Jack Hermansson +115
Hermansson was hurt and dropped in the first round, which was somewhat surprising for me, and it certainly played a part for the remainder of the fight. Vettori was simply the better striker and wrestler and was able to keep a stalemate in the grappling. Hermansson simply couldn’t put his top game to work, and that will always be an issue. Impressive win for Vettori. 

The 2-3 night netted a 1.1 unit loss. This brings us to 68-59 on the year for 35.1 units of profit.

UFC Predictions at

Want to get the latest news and exclusive offers?

Sign up for our newsletter now!