UFC Vegas 15 Betting Plays and PredictionsOther ThoughtsOther Fight Predictions

November 26, 2020

Last week’s UFC 255 Betting Plays and Predictions did not fully deliver, but we got a little more profit on our bets. Moving onto this week, we have some very, very good matchmaking on this card, and decent enough star power for a fight night.

We have 11 fights and there is truly an identifiable path to victory for all 22 fighters. What we have in turn, is a card that is quite dicey from a gambling perspective. We will only have two dedicated gambling plays for this card, but there are some additional spots that present some level of value that I will touch on, given the lack of spots to certainly fire at. Let’s dive in.

This weeks picks. Keep reading for thoughts on the main event and full betting play analysis.

FightBetting Play
Miguel Baeza -160 vs Takashi SatoSato ITD +225
Josh Parisian -210 vs Parker PorterParisian ITD -135
  • New
    nj
  • 1200px
    pa
  • 1200px
    mi
  • 1200px
    wv
  • Indiana
    in
  • 1200px
    co
  • Illinois
    il
  • State
    tn
  • Seal
    va
  • Iowa
    ia
  • Seal
    dc
  • Other

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Great reward program

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

Bet365 Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Top class user experience
  • Great live betting
  • World biggest sportsbook

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB500

SugarHouse Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Great Loyalty Program
  • Generous Bonus
  • Wide Range of Banking Options

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

SugarHouse Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Wide Range of Banking Options
  • Generous Bonus
  • Great Loyalty Program

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB

Unibet Sportsbook

Rated 4.7 stars out of 5
4.7
  • Sign-up Bonus
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Great international betting coverage

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Great promotions
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Great Promotions
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetRivers Sportsbook

Rated 4 stars out of 5
4.0
  • Top Class Customer Support
  • Great Welcome Bonus
  • Both online and land-based sportsbook

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
250MATCH

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Well know brand

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Great Promotions
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

William Hill Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Great Promotions
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

PointsBet Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the biggest sportsbooks in US
  • Very user-friendly platform
  • Outstanding US sports offers

Get $2000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB2000

Unibet Sportsbook

Rated 4.7 stars out of 5
4.7
  • Great international betting coverage
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Sign-up Bonus

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

Sportsbetting.com

Rated 4 stars out of 5
4.0
  • Fast payouts
  • 1X Bonus Playthrough
  • Exciting Daily Promos

Get $150 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

PointsBet Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the biggest sportsbooks in US
  • Outstanding US sports offers
  • Very user-friendly platform

Get $2000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB2000

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

PointsBet Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Very user-friendly platform
  • Outstanding US sports offers
  • One of the biggest sportsbooks in US

Get $2000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB2000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Great Promotions
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetRivers Sportsbook

Rated 4 stars out of 5
4.0
  • Both online and land-based sportsbook
  • Great Welcome Bonus
  • Top Class Customer Support

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
250MATCH

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Great reward program

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

William Hill Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Great Promotions
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Great reward program
  • Well know brand

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process
  • Great promotions

Get $100 free

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

Unibet Sportsbook

Rated 4.7 stars out of 5
4.7
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Sign-up Bonus
  • Great international betting coverage

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Well know brand

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Easy registration process

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

PointsBet Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the biggest sportsbooks in US
  • Outstanding US sports offers
  • Very user-friendly platform

Get $2000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB2000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Strong presence in US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Great promotions
  • Best Multi interface platform

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

Miguel Baeza -160 vs Takashi Sato

Betting Play: Sato ITD +225

Fight is at 170 lbs and is -245 to end inside the distance.

This striker’s delight is the top pick for fight of the night, and we have a value wagering spot in this spot as well. These are two ascending and quite capable strikers, that are different but both quite effective.

Baeza is dynamic with all of his strikers, and has a very high end leg kicking game that allows him to unlock the rest of his striking attack. Baeza is the more well rounded of the two fighters, and has the better ground game, but I do not expect much, if any grappling in this fight, at least not in the first couple rounds. If we see any, it would likely be late in the fight with Baeza initiating it against a more tired Sato.

Sato is the tighter, more technical and more precise striker, but he is far from a volume machine. He is a knock out artist that will have little success when he isn’t getting it done inside the distance. His punches will be precise and we did see Baeza rocked by Matt Brown in his last fight, and a similar occurrence from Sato would lead to Baeza being finished.

That finish from Sato is the one where we have a value spot, and I think there is a big singular reason why that is likely to come. That reason is the southpaw stance from Sato. That will keep the Baeza leg kicks off the outside of his lead led, and could create opportunities for a massive left hand kill shot if Baeza opts tot attack the inside of his lead leg.

In any event, the leg kicks that stifle the movement of Baeza’s opponents won’t be in play in this fight and not close to the level they are in his other fights. In a pure boxing affair, I absolutely give Sato the edge in this race to a finish, and his underdog pricing is coupled with big value on the +225 ITD line.

The finish is almost always the sole Sato path to victory, and I believe this matchup is favorable for him, at least to the point of a coin flip and the ITD price tag is very good value, and our point of attack.

  • New
    nj
  • 1200px
    pa
  • 1200px
    mi
  • 1200px
    wv
  • Indiana
    in
  • 1200px
    co
  • Illinois
    il
  • State
    tn
  • Seal
    va
  • Iowa
    ia
  • Seal
    dc
  • Other

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Great reward program

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

Bet365 Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • World biggest sportsbook
  • Great live betting
  • Top class user experience

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB500

SugarHouse Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Great Loyalty Program
  • Generous Bonus
  • Wide Range of Banking Options

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

SugarHouse Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • Wide Range of Banking Options
  • Generous Bonus
  • Great Loyalty Program

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSB

Unibet Sportsbook

Rated 4.7 stars out of 5
4.7
  • Sign-up Bonus
  • Great international betting coverage
  • Trustworthy brand

Get $500 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetRivers Sportsbook

Rated 4 stars out of 5
4.0
  • Great Welcome Bonus
  • Both online and land-based sportsbook
  • Top Class Customer Support

Get $250 bonus

Promo Сode:
250MATCH

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Great reward program
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Well know brand

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Strong presence in US
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Generous bonus offers

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5
5.0
  • Easy registration process
  • Best Multi interface platform
  • Great promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
USSBRF1000

DraftKings Sportsbook

Rated 4.8 stars out of 5
4.8
  • One of the Largest Gambling Sites in the US
  • Offers Casino, Sportsbook & DFS
  • Great Promotions

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

William Hill Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Trustworthy brand
  • Great Promotions
  • Wide range of betting options

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

Caesars Sportsbook

Rated 4.9 stars out of 5
4.9
  • Wide range of banking options
  • Well know brand
  • Great reward program

Get $5000 bonus

Promo Сode:
SPORTSBONUSRF

FanDuel Sportsbook

Rated 4.5 stars out of 5
4.5
  • Generous bonus offers
  • Wide range of betting options
  • Strong presence in US

Get $1000 bonus

Promo Сode:
NONE NEEDED

BetMGM Sportsbook

Rated 5 stars out of 5