UFC In Jacksonville – Part 2, May 16

May 13, 2020

Saturday night brings us our third fight card in eight days, and something of a continuation of Wednesday night’s card. Both cards were scheduled for 11 fights initially but the Wednesday card lost a fight due to weight cutting medical issues for Karl Roberson.

We still remain scheduled for 11 fights on Saturday and, going in, the Saturday card towers above the one we saw on Wednesday both from a fight quality and viewing experience perspective. The Wednesday card did indeed offer a pleasant surprise however, as it was a great watch with fun fights and finishes, but the Saturday card is the class of this pair of fight night cards.

Wednesday Review

Reviewing our four plays from the Wednesday card, we had three winners and one loser, recovering the unit and change the Cowboy decision and Cruz stoppage cost us on Saturday, with a little extra coming back.  

✅ Chase Sherman lead off the card with a dominant KO win to cash for us.

✅ Omar Morales won a fun striking affair in a pretty clear decision.

❌ Hunter Azure, our loss, was ahead 62-29 in significant strikes when his chin gave out in the second round. This was the fourth highest striking differential in UFC history for a knocked out fighter. Face palm.

✅ Ricky Simon was dominant in an egregious split decision win against Ray Borg. He was the better wrestler as we thought, and rode that to an easy victory which should realistically see judge Dave Tirelli chastised and fired from judging MMA fights as he was the dolt scoring it for Borg.

On to Saturday’s fights.

Betting Play Rundown

🔥 Nascimento +105
🔥 Davis -215
🔥 Holland -110
🔥 Baeza ITD -110

🔥 Vera ITD +320
🔥 Anders KO +320
🔥 Gadehla submission +600

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Don’Tale Mayes -125 vs Rodrigo Nascimento

Fight is at heavyweight and is -300 to end inside the distance.

Mayes enters his second UFC outing while Nascimento is debuting. While Mayes was certainly and understandably outclassed by Ciryl Gane in his debut, that could ultimately be the case against most or all UFC heavyweights. He does not bring real power for the heavyweight division and his grappling game is a liability at best and truly does not have a differentiating quality to make me believe he can have level of productivity or success in his UFC career.

Nascimento on the other hand, does have a path to finding a successful UFC career. He enters this bought 7-0 with all wins being finishes and is a fun fighter. He is willing to brawl and appears to have a high end BJJ skill set. The BJJ skill set is where he will run away with this particular fight and being priced as an underdog here is something I believe to be incorrect. The true unknown on Nascimento is cardio what to expect if the fight makes it to deeper waters.

Even with this risk factor, Nascimento is our first play of the night, I expect a submission and likely in the first round.

Betting Play: Nascimento +105

Cortney Casey -160 vs Mara Romero-Borella

Fight is at 125 lbs and is +260 to end inside the distance.

This fight is something to behold, and not in a good way. Both ladies are likely on thin ice in terms of continuing to remain on the roster. They have both lost three of their last four fights and there just aren’t impressive wins. Borella will have a wrestling advantage here but I think it’s fair to say Casey has the better BJJ skill set, so we could have an ugly striking affair between two subpar strikers that won’t be pumping out volume. If Borella does opt to force wrestling, she will be in danger if she plays in Casey’s guard, but can own the fight on the floor if she can get to and hold dominant positions.

This fight is dog or pass, but is just simply an easy pass.

No Plays

Darren Elkins -120 vs Nate Landwehr

Fight is at 145 lbs and is +110 to end inside the distance.

Man, this fight should be a full on war. Both fighters have big time durability and tend to play a come from behind style after taking damage. Elkins nickname is “The Damage” after all. At this point in their respective careers Landwehr is the more dangerous striker and will be the fighter wanting to keep the fight on the feet. Elkins however will have a very large advantage in the grappling realm in this one. There’s going to be a force of will factor in this fight in terms of where the fight takes place. We also have Elkins at the twilight of his career and Landwehr just starting in the UFC in his second fight with the promotion.

Elkins chin could give out but he should have the easier path to victory in grappling. That said I’m not quite confident enough to make it a play, but the lean is Elkins.

No Plays

Mike Davis -215 vs Giga Chikadze

Fight is at 145 lbs and is +125 to end inside the distance.

The last time we saw Mike Davis, he was utterly decimating Thomas Gifford in the worst cornering experience in memory, until Anthony Smith’s corner on Wednesday night. Davis has a real ceiling with the promotion while Chikadze, well, he doesn’t.

Chikadze has made the transition from kickboxing and did win his UFC debut against Emmers, but this step up in competition against a complete mixed martial artist is simply going to be too much for him. Davis boxing will be able to match Chikadze’s skill set on the feet and Davis will have a massive advantage in the grappling realm and will be substantially physically stronger.

Davis is the largest price on the card, but that only sits at a tick over 2 to 1 and that line is a value. Take Davis to win as he outclasses Chikadze here.

Betting Play: Davis -215
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