UFC 249 Betting Picks Review

May 10, 2020

Before diving into this weeks cards, let’s walk through how we did on Saturday night for UFC 249.

The Good

Vincente Luque battered Niko Price and despite Price showing real heart and toughness, his battered face and terribly sliced eye lid called for a doctor stoppage in the third round.

Justin Gaethje came through as an underdog in the main event as he battered and finished Tony Ferguson to win the interim lightweight strap.

Every lean and punt play suggestion without a dedicated play attached to it came to fruition.

The Cancelled

We lost our play on Jacare Souza after a positive covid test and the cancellation of his fight.

The Bad

I severely underestimated the progression of Bryce Mitchell. While I was correct on the Charles Rosa submission defense holding up, Mitchell showed real and vast improvement in cardio and physical strength and controlled the fight on the mat for the duration.

The Really Unfortunate

I felt cheated a couple times Saturday night, and that is why the emphasis on overly unfortunate here.

The least unfortunate was the Oleinik by KO play at +695. It was just a partial unit loss but Oleinik dominated the striking in this one and got the win, but unfortunately Werdum’s chin held up to make it to the final bell and Oleinik’s win came via decision, but in fairness, could have gone either way.

The worst occurrence of the night was the judging on the Cowboy/Pettis fight. My personal card and the cards of essentially everyone I know in the industry were fairly easily 30-27 in favor of Cowboy, who won every round. The judges saw it differently, each giving two rounds to Pettis but having at least one judge give Cowboy each of the first two rounds. Robbery here.

Dominick Cruz was “finished” by Cejudo late in the second round after getting rocked but recovering quickly in an obvious fashion that was apparent to everyone except referee Keith Peterson. After the fight, Cruz said Peterson smelled of alcohol and cigarettes. I am the last person that will ever condemn someone for their vices, but when alcohol is involved for a profession that requires snap judgement calls, it is the most egregious of offenses. Now, Cruz was losing this fight no doubt and we don’t know how it would have ended up, but he is a fighter anyone certainly wants in the championship rounds of a fight and he and we were utterly robbed of that chance.

All in all we lost just over one unit, but it should have been a much much better night. On to Wednesday. Read the UFC Jax may Betting overview article.

TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.