The Chicago Bears Could Actually Make The Playoffs

December 21, 2020

There was not a lot of confidence in the Chicago Bears when the 2020 season got underway. Their odds of making the playoffs were not bad (+158), but they were not expected to make it.

After starting the season with a 5-1 record, confidence was still not high in the Bears.

At that time, their odds of making the playoffs were looking good at -247. According to those odds, the Bears had a 71.18 percent chance of making it. Should they make the postseason, it would be just their second trip to the playoffs since 2010.

So, yeah— making the playoffs would be a big deal. But then the wheels fell off, and they lost six in a row. As could be expected, their odds shot up pretty high (+662).

They now had a 13.12 percent chance of making it. It was safe to say that things were not looking good for the Monsters of the Midway.

But then something happened—they won a game. It was against the woeful Houston Texans, but it was a rare game where the offense looked good (granted, against one of the league’s worst defenses).

Then last week against the Minnesota Vikings, it happened again, and the offense looked pretty good in the process. By beating the Vikings, they improved to 7-7 and slid into the No. 8 position in the NFC—one game behind the Arizona Cardinals for the 7-seed and final playoff spot.

Things went from looking great to looking terrible, and now they do not look too bad.

The odds still favor them not making the playoffs (Yes– +200, No– -250; odds via DraftKings). However, a 33.33 percent chance of making it sounds promising. It also means they are going to need some help.

But they have a shot. 

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How the Chicago Bears Can Make the Playoffs

The Bears will need some help if they are going to make it in, but all the help in the world will mean nothing if they do not take care of their own business. They must win out.

That means beating the Jacksonville Jaguars this week and the Green Bay Packers in their regular-season finale.

Chicago is a 7.5-point favorite against the Jaguars, and it would be somewhat of a shock if they did not win by at least that much. However, beating the Packers, a team that beat them 41-25 just a few weeks ago, is not going to be so easy.

Then again, it might not be as hard a game to win as it should be.

If Green Bay wins this week against the Tennessee Titans, the Packers will have locked up the 1-seed in the NFC. That means they will not need to beat the Bears in their regular-season finale and will probably rest most of their starters.

Should that happen, the Bears will face either Tim Boyle (a guy with ten pass attempts in three years) or rookie Jordan Love—against a very tough Bears defense.

So, there is a good chance the Bears could win out. But winning out is not going to be enough. They will need the Cardinals to lose at least one game. That way, the two teams will finish with identical 9-7 records.

It would come down to the tiebreakers, specifically the common games one. Both teams have played the Rams, Giants, Panthers, and Lions. The Bears are 3-2 against those teams; the best the Cardinals can do is 2-3.

Just like that, the Chicago Bears are in the playoffs. Heck, if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers happen to drop their last two, they could move up to the 6-seed.

Should the Bears go 1-1 in their last two, they are not necessarily out of the race. But they will need the Cardinals to lose both of their final games in order to finish with an identical record as Chicago’s.

It will then come down to the tiebreakers, which the Bears would still win.

So – How Should You Bet?

Betting Play: Chicago Bears not to make the playoffs.

The key to the whole scenario is whether the Packers can beat Tennessee this week. While Green Bay is favored, taking down Derek Henry and the Titans is not easy. Henry has averaged right around 140 yards a game in his last six.

If Henry does that against Green Bay and Ryan Tannehill does not turn the ball over, Tennessee will win the game. Should the Packers not win, they will be playing to beat the Bears in Week 17.

Does that mean the Chicago Bears are not going to make the playoffs? Or should you have faith and bet that they will. It all depends on whether the Packers can beat the Titans this week.

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Travis
Travis Pulver
Travis a native-Texan which is where his love of football originated. But after moving around a lot when he was younger, he was able to develop an appreciation for the game and not just his favorite teams. He now lives in Indiana with his wife, Nicole, and two kids, Jackson and Addison. You can find him on Twitter at @FatManWriting.