• Thu
    May 20
  • 11:30 pm
    TOR
    MTL
    -222
    180
  • 2:30 am
    COL
    STL
    -233
    185
  • 1:00 am
    EDM
    WIN
    -147
    120
  • Tue
    May 18
  • 12:00 am
    CAR
    NSH
    -196
    160
  • Mon
    May 17
  • 11:30 pm
    WSH
    BOS
    120
    -139
  • 1:00 am
    MIN
    DAL
    340
    -455
  • 1:00 am
    POR
    DEN
    -345
    260
  • 1:00 am
    SAC
    UTA
    450
    -667
  • 1:00 am
    NOP
    LAL
    375
    -500
  • 1:00 am
    OKC
    LAC
    475
    -714
  • 12:00 am
    DET
    MIA
    220
    -278
  • Sun
    May 16
  • 11:30 pm
    FLA
    TBL
    -110
    -110
  • 11:00 pm
    ATL
    HOU
    -1250
    700
  • 5:00 pm
    NYK
    BOS
    -345
    260
  • 4:00 pm
    PIT
    NYI
    -147
    123

NFL Week 6 Prop Plays by TJ Calkins

October 15, 2020

NFL

This is the first installment of our prop plays for every given NFL week. It will allow me to take some (many?) would consider my fantasy football related expertise and turn it to sports betting profit. I mentioned in this week’s straight plays piece that players are often and generally more predictive in nature than teams, and this will allow us to profit off of that. 2020, mirroring real life, has been a wild ride for team based betting thus far. I believe we will see that level out to normal ranges of outcomes through the remainder of the season. In the interim, let’s get to the player props to attack for NFL Week 6.

David Montgomery

Betting Plays:Over 59.5 rushingOver 85.5 total yards

If there is a positional group in a given matchup that appears to be bankable in every given week, it is the running back position against the Panthers, particularly those of the bell cow variety. With Tarik Cohen lost to the Bears, Montgomery fits that bill, and is set up for a career game that will blow the rest out of the water. If his rushing prop were near 100 yards, I would still be attacking the over, fortunately it is set at just 59.5. He is also being used heavily as a pass catcher, and his total yardage prop sits at just 85.5 yards. Both of these overs are smash plays and ones that I would strongly consider investing more than a single unit on, if possible.

Mark Andrews

Betting PlaysOver 3.5 catchesOver 47.5 receiving yards

Andrews gets a matchup with the Eagles whose secondary was turned inside out two weeks ago by George Kittle. They have also given up a massive line to Tyler Higbee. The most wild stat I can offer at any level, is that over the last four weeks, tight ends have been targeted 29 times against the Eagles… 28 of those targets resulted in completions. Enter Andrews, an elite pass catching tight end, and one that Vegas is not giving the proper respect to in this matchup. His catch total is set at just 3.5 and his yardage total is set at just 47.5. He may not just clear these totals, he may double them. Take Andrews for the catch count and yardage overs.

Robby Anderson

Betting Play: Over 71.5 receiving yards

As much as I love DJ Moore, it is apparent that Robby Anderson is at the top of the wide receiving totem for the new regime in Carolina. Anderson has seen at least eight targets in four of five games and has additionally produced at least 99 receiving yards in four of five games. His catch total is set rather high, at 5.5. While this is still a figure that likely produces an over result, it is set too high for comfort. What is more attractive is the yardage total, set at a more comfortable 71.5. His role will bring touches and yardage in essentially every matchup, and this one is no different. Take the yardage over.

Kenny Golladay

Betting Plays:Over 4.5 catchesOver 65.5 receiving yards

This is a player that is equally as mis-lined as Montgomery and Andrews in their respective matchups. Golladay is the clear alpha on the Detroit offense and gets an absolutely sweet matchup with the Jaguars. It appears his lack of splash games since returning from injury have kept his props low, and we will profit off of that. He will get double digit target volume in most matchups and will often be a 100 yard receiver in soft matchups like this one, as his ability level is quite high. His reception total is at a silly 4.5, which feels like his absolute floor barring injury. The yardage total is not much better, set at 65.5. These overs, much like the ones on Montgomery and Andrews, are ones to consider more than a single unit on.

Jamison Crowder

Betting Plays:Over 5.5 catchesOver 65.5 receiving yards

Nothing screams unsexy like a Jets player in general, and for some reason, just the Crowder name carries an extra stigma. Well he is doing his best to do away with that stigma thus far this year, and he is an absolute volume monster. He has only played three games thus far this season due to injury, but he has been an exceptional and consistent statistical producer. In every single game he’s played, he’s seen at least 10 targets, had at least seven catches, produced at least 104 yards and has scored in two of those games. With a putrid team that will be perpetually trailing, this is simply a fantastic bet to continue, as there is very little in house competition for those targets. His catch total is set at 5.5 and his yardage total is set at 65.5. Needless to say we will be attacking both of those overs.

Myles Gaskin

Betting Play: Over 82.5 total yards

On the other side of the ball in the same game as Crowder, Gaskin has established himself as the lead back in Miami, and is getting plenty of usage in both running and passing games. He averages 19.7 touches over the last three weeks and is on an offense that is humming. While it is difficult to pinpoint whether he will chew up yardage on the ground or through the air, we have the total yards prop to fall back on. His is set at 82.5, and again, that feels like the absolute floor against the Jets. One more over tot take.

Good luck this week!

TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.