NFL Week 6 Prop Plays by TJ Calkins
16 October 2020
This is the first installment of our prop plays for every given NFL week. It will allow me to take some (many?) would consider my fantasy football related expertise and turn it to sports betting profit. I mentioned in this week’s straight plays piece that players are often and generally more predictive in nature than teams, and this will allow us to profit off of that. 2020, mirroring real life, has been a wild ride for team based betting thus far. I believe we will see that level out to normal ranges of outcomes through the remainder of the season. In the interim, let’s get to the player props to attack for NFL Week 6.
If there is a positional group in a given matchup that appears to be bankable in every given week, it is the running back position against the Panthers, particularly those of the bell cow variety. With Tarik Cohen lost to the Bears, Montgomery fits that bill, and is set up for a career game that will blow the rest out of the water. If his rushing prop were near 100 yards, I would still be attacking the over, fortunately it is set at just 59.5. He is also being used heavily as a pass catcher, and his total yardage prop sits at just 85.5 yards. Both of these overs are smash plays and ones that I would strongly consider investing more than a single unit on, if possible.
Over 59.5 rushing
Over 85.5 total yards
Andrews gets a matchup with the Eagles whose secondary was turned inside out two weeks ago by George Kittle. They have also given up a massive line to Tyler Higbee. The most wild stat I can offer at any level, is that over the last four weeks, tight ends have been targeted 29 times against the Eagles… 28 of those targets resulted in completions. Enter Andrews, an elite pass catching tight end, and one that Vegas is not giving the proper respect to in this matchup. His catch total is set at just 3.5 and his yardage total is set at just 47.5. He may not just clear these totals, he may double them. Take Andrews for the catch count and yardage overs.
Over 3.5 catches
Over 47.5 receiving yards
As much as I love DJ Moore, it is apparent that Robby Anderson is at the top of the wide receiving totem for the new regime in Carolina. Anderson has seen at least eight targets in four of five games and has additionally produced at least 99 receiving yards in four of five games. His catch total is set rather high, at 5.5. While this is still a figure that likely produces an over result, it is set too high for comfort. What is more attractive is the yardage total, set at a more comfortable 71.5. His role will bring touches and yardage in essentially every matchup, and this one is no different. Take the yardage over.
Betting Play: Over 71.5 receiving yards
This is a player that is equally as mis-lined as Montgomery and Andrews in their respective matchups. Golladay is the clear alpha on the Detroit offense and gets an absolutely sweet matchup with the Jaguars. It appears his lack of splash games since returning from injury have kept his props low, and we will profit off of that. He will get double digit target volume in most matchups and will often be a 100 yard receiver in soft matchups like this one, as his ability level is quite high. His reception total is at a silly 4.5, which feels like his absolute floor barring injury. The yardage total is not much better, set at 65.5. These overs, much like the ones on Montgomery and Andrews, are ones to consider more than a single unit on.
Over 4.5 catches
Over 65.5 receiving yards
Nothing screams unsexy like a Jets player in general, and for some reason, just the Crowder name carries an extra stigma. Well he is doing his best to do away with that stigma thus far this year, and he is an absolute volume monster. He has only played three games thus far this season due to injury, but he has been an exceptional and consistent statistical producer. In every single game he’s played, he’s seen at least 10 targets, had at least seven catches, produced at least 104 yards and has scored in two of those games. With a putrid team that will be perpetually trailing, this is simply a fantastic bet to continue, as there is very little in house competition for those targets. His catch total is set at 5.5 and his yardage total is set at 65.5. Needless to say we will be attacking both of those overs.
Over 5.5 catches
Over 65.5 receiving yards
On the other side of the ball in the same game as Crowder, Gaskin has established himself as the lead back in Miami, and is getting plenty of usage in both running and passing games. He averages 19.7 touches over the last three weeks and is on an offense that is humming. While it is difficult to pinpoint whether he will chew up yardage on the ground or through the air, we have the total yards prop to fall back on. His is set at 82.5, and again, that feels like the absolute floor against the Jets. One more over tot take.
Betting Play: Over 82.5 total yards
Good luck this week!