NFL Week 6 Prop Plays by TJ Calkins

October 15, 2020

This is the first installment of our prop plays for every given NFL week. It will allow me to take some (many?) would consider my fantasy football related expertise and turn it to sports betting profit. I mentioned in this week’s straight plays piece that players are often and generally more predictive in nature than teams, and this will allow us to profit off of that. 2020, mirroring real life, has been a wild ride for team based betting thus far. I believe we will see that level out to normal ranges of outcomes through the remainder of the season. In the interim, let’s get to the player props to attack for NFL Week 6.

David Montgomery

Betting Plays:Over 59.5 rushingOver 85.5 total yards

If there is a positional group in a given matchup that appears to be bankable in every given week, it is the running back position against the Panthers, particularly those of the bell cow variety. With Tarik Cohen lost to the Bears, Montgomery fits that bill, and is set up for a career game that will blow the rest out of the water. If his rushing prop were near 100 yards, I would still be attacking the over, fortunately it is set at just 59.5. He is also being used heavily as a pass catcher, and his total yardage prop sits at just 85.5 yards. Both of these overs are smash plays and ones that I would strongly consider investing more than a single unit on, if possible.

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Mark Andrews

Betting PlaysOver 3.5 catchesOver 47.5 receiving yards

Andrews gets a matchup with the Eagles whose secondary was turned inside out two weeks ago by George Kittle. They have also given up a massive line to Tyler Higbee. The most wild stat I can offer at any level, is that over the last four weeks, tight ends have been targeted 29 times against the Eagles… 28 of those targets resulted in completions. Enter Andrews, an elite pass catching tight end, and one that Vegas is not giving the proper respect to in this matchup. His catch total is set at just 3.5 and his yardage total is set at just 47.5. He may not just clear these totals, he may double them. Take Andrews for the catch count and yardage overs.

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