Week 6 NFL Picks – TJ’s NFL Weekly

October 15, 2020

Week 6 has some notable teams on their bye week. I should more accurately say some notable offenses, as the Seahawks and Saints are on bye. They are joined by the Raiders and Chargers, bringing the total number of teams who have had their bye week to 10.

Knock on wood, we appear to be in good shape this week in terms of games being rescheduled due to COVID-19. We previously had Thursday Night Football rescheduled to make a double header on Monday night, but that should be the only change this week. Speaking of, be sure to check back for a Monday Night look at both betting and prop plays.

Speaking of prop plays, once you’ve read this article to completion, as I know you always do and never just skim down to the plays themselves, check back for our new weekly prop play piece. It has probably always been true, but in this year especially, player production is more predictive than team output, and props are a great way to add value to your bet slip.

Let’s get to this week’s NFL plays. Keep reading for full analysis on each game below.

MatchupBetting Play
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota VikingsVikings -4
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTitans -3
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh SteelersSteelers -3.5
New York Jets at Miami DolphinsOver 47
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Atlanta

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Betting Play: Vikings -4

1PM EST
Opening Line: Vikings -3.5 and 57
Current Line: Vikings -4 and 54

After a beginning to the season that made the Vikings appear destined for failure, they have rebounded a bit, and have been competitive with very good teams. Their week 1 defensive disaster against Green Bay and their week 2 offensive face plant against Indy seem to be in the rear view. Since then they have lost by just 1 point each the undefeated Seahawks and undefeated Titans, while notching a win in Houston. The schedule finally softens for them as the lowly winless Falcons travel to Minnesota. The Vikings have reestablished their identity on offense, running the ball effectively and often, using balance and play action to keep defenses guessing. Both Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen seem to be back to their old selves, with rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson emerging as a viable threat. The Vikes are set to be without Dalvin Cook this week, but this lose little to nothing pivoting to high end backup running back Alexander Mattison. While they will be able to run as they please, it is the Falcons pass defense that is the most exploitable portion of that unit, particularly to tight ends. We could see a breakout and career game from tight end Irv Smith Jr. Only the Cowboys have allowed more points than the Falcons, and even with albatross Dan Quinn removed from around the team’s neck, the defense as a whole has little chance of improvement under new leadership.

On offense, the Falcons run game is only remotely effective, and it took the league’s worst run defense for Todd Gurley to have a good afternoon against the Falcons last week. Even with that effort, the result was still a loss at home. The passing game will be without Julio Jones once again this week, and if I’m honest, Matt Ryan’s arm is showing symptoms of being cooked. The outside and deep throws are simply not getting there with the zip and velocity required. The Vikings secondary started the year of terribly, and still has some coverage issues from the corners, but the safeties help to cover up that wart, and I’m not sure Ryan is capable of keeping a scoring pace that this defense will allow against any competent team.

I view this four point line as an extremely friendly one for the favorites, and think the Vikings cruise comfortably to an easy win as they play ball control after hitting the splash plays early on.

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