NFL Week 5 Betting Review

October 12, 2020

This will be the weekly recap piece of the NFL betting plays. Unfortunately, the one I’m writing this week is not joyful, as we had another losing week, but nothing resembling the horror that was Week 4. I was on the fence on two plays, the Bills on Tuesday night and the Browns as home dogs, and opted to not make them dedicated plays, and that was a mistake. Of our four plays, one was a trainwreck, one was a win and the other two snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Let’s run through them. 

✅ Win – Panthers +2
Every win feels nice, but it brings an extra bit of satisfaction when it is on the game that finally ushers the incompetence of Falcons head coach Dan Quinn out the door. The Falcons did hold a 7-0 lead in this spot, but it was all Panthers after that. The 23-16 final was essentially as expected. The Panthers allowed some gaudy stats to the running back position per usual, but kept the entire Falcons passing game in check. Mike Davis, Robby Anderson and DJ Moore were all effective on offense as the underdog Panthers got the outright win. 

❌ Loss – Jaguars +6
This one stung as the Jaguars were anti opportunists for the entirety of this game. The Jaguars held a 7-3 lead early before missing a coverage on tight end Darren Fells that resulted in a long touchdown. Trailing 10-7 they drove 69 yards, only to see Hauschka miss a chip shot 24 yard field goal. Gross. No worries, they went and got an interception on the very next play, and were set up to get those points back before the half. They weren’t able to punch it in deep in Houston territory, but were set up for another short field goal. Wait ,hold on, holding penalty on the last offensive play, making the field goal longer, and you guessed it, Hauschka missed again. Instead of taking a lead into the locker room, they trailed 10-7. In the second half, the Texans got an early field goal while the offense struggled, but the defense set them up well again. They got an interception to start deep in Houston territory while trailing 13-7. You probably could have guessed again, running back James Robinson put the ball on the ground and gave away a score, with Houston taking over at their own five yard line. The ensuing eight play 95 yard touchdown drive was crushing, and put us in a 13 point deficit as opposed to leading the game, as the Jags should have been. They answered with a touchdown drive on the next possession, but that was the end of the good news. Each remaining drive for the remainder of the game ended in a turnover and they lost 30-14. It was a maddening bet to follow along with. 

❌Loss – 49ers -9
This was a disaster, and not worth diving into with any depth. Jimmy Garroppolo returned, but he was rusty for the 49ers, throwing two first half interceptions and getting himself benched. The defense was also horrific, and the 43-17 final was indicative of the play on the field. 

❌Loss – Seahawks -7
This one stung a little bit, but not nearly at the level of the Jags play. Just when I think ground hog day is over with the Seahawks, they go back to their previous ways. Russell WIlson had just seven passing attempts in the first half, completing all of them, but for just 40 yards. There was no aggression, and the result was a 13-0 halftime deficit. Go back to the Seahawks plan: let coaching fail, and let Russ bail them out. The defense was opportunistic to start the second half, creating a pair of turnovers, and Russ capitalized, quickly turning the table to a cover, with a 21-13 lead. That was not to last, as the defense’s usefulness ended there, allowing consecutive touchdown drives totalling 26 plays and 184 yards. After the second touchdown, a cover was a huge longshot, but the heroics to win outright from Russ and DK Metcalf gave the Seahawks a one point win, but no cover. 

The 1-3 week brings us to an abysmal 8-16 on the season. I will right this ship, and have had dry spells to successfully overcome each year, but it is admittedly a frustrating place in time at the moment. 

Next up is picks on NFL week 6.

TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.