NFL Week 10 Review

17 November 2020

TJ Calkins NFL Weekly

We did a whole lot of running in place in NFL week 10, with no real profit or loss to speak of, and that will happen when multiple plays result in a push, and another is lost to unplayable weather conditions.

We also took one of those bad beats where an unselfish player refuses a touchdown for both him and his team to ice the game. This is always the right play but it makes it no less tilting watching it happen.

We also had a team let the game clock run out as opposed to taking an easy field goal late in the game. The points wouldn’t have affected the outcome, but it would have made the total go overand points are used for tiebreakers for NFL teams. Ugghh. Let’s run through the plays. 

❌ Loss – Pit/Cin Over 47.5
This game landed on 46 and even watching it live it was difficult to fathom how this game stayed under the total. We only got seven total points in the last 20 minutes of the game, and that is because the Bengals could not pull their weight.

They lost 36-10 and the game was just as pass happy as I envisioned. The two teams combined for 90 passing plays versus 36 running plays. To put the icing on the cake, the Bengals waltzed into field goal range on their final possession, but instead of taking those points, they simply let time run out, sealing a tilting loss.

🔄 Push – Football Team +3
This game was something of a carbon copy for the Football Team to the one they played the previous week. They allowed Stafford to throw a pair of touchdowns on his first five passing attempts and ultimately dug a 24-3 hole.

Much like last week, that is when they became motivated and roared all the way back, tying the game at both 24 and 27 the latter with 21 seconds remaining. Then the unthinkable happened. The lions were able to chew up 34 yards in 18 seconds, and Matt Prater drilled a 59 yarder to make the game a push. We would have been set up well in overtime, but a roller coaster game ending in a push is fair. 

🔄 Push – Browns -3
The weather in Cleveland was as bad as anyone could have envisioned on Sunday, and I can fully attest as the wind took and broke multiple pieces of my patio furniture. That took the over pay off the table, but it further cemented the Browns as a play. With the windy conditions, we knew the Browns were going to control the game with the run, and they certainly did.

Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt went over the century mark on the ground, while Texans backs could only muster 54 yards on the ground. The Browns held a 3-0 lead for the majority of the game when Chubb seemingly iced it early in the fourth quarter with nine yard score. The Browns then allowed a late scoring drive, assisted by an unnecessary roughness penalty, bringing the betting outcome to a push.

On the final possession, Chubb broke a long run down the left sideline with no one near him and an easy touchdown… not so fast. He instead made the “smart” play to end the game with kneel downs, as he purposely stepped out of bounds at the 1 yard line. Tough beat on the push. 

✅ Win – Dolphins -1.5
The Dolphins scored two minutes into this game and did not give up the cover at any point for the rest of the game. Once they stretched the lead to two touchdowns, it was academic and the final was 29-21. I am thankful for this mislined game. 

We went 1-1-2 on the week, to bring us to 21-24-2 on the season. 

Nick Foles ignored Darnell Mooney on Monday night, making props go 3-4 on the week, bringing us to 22-24 on the season. 

NFL Predictions at
NFL Week 10 Review – 2019

Time to review the NFL picks Week 10. Too much of The Unfortunate this week but we keep moving on. Week 11 is going to be better.

The Good

This section is woefully short unfortunately, but we were lacking on quantity of total games and sound plays this week. The Chiefs over got there with ease as these teams combined for 67 points. One less touchdown would have been much nicer though, namely the last one. The Seahawks rolled to a cover against the 49ers on Monday night as Jimmy G committed the killer turnovers we’d been bracing for all season.

The Bad

Drew Brees was his normally efficient self for much of this game, but made mistakes holding the ball too long and taking multiple drive killing sacks and ultimately only leading the team to 9 points at home against the league’s worst defense in a losing effort. This is obviously uncharacteristic and a double whammy, my survivor season ended with the Saints loss. The Bears over was a sound play had Stafford played, and I hope the late news took anyone off that play as Jeff Driskel is far from a high end backup.

The Unfortunate

The Chiefs, laying 4 points had a five point lead and possession of the ball with a first down at the Tennessee 32 yard line with under two minutes left in this one. They then had a 3rd and 2 with under a minute and a half remaining at the Titans 24 yard line. Seems like an easy spot to run the ball and ice the game right? Nope, let’s drop back… and ultimately get sacked. Oh well, we still kick a field goal to go up 8 right? Not so fast, a botched FG snap later the Titans have the ball back with a 1:20 remaining, no timeouts and starting at their own 39. It took them just four plays to score and additionally get the two point conversion. They actually scored too quickly as the Chiefs got the ball back with 23 seconds left and Mahomes got them into position for a 52 yard game tying field goal that would give them the chance to take the cover back in overtime. Not to be, blocked FG by a blatantly offside defender that wasn’t called and an insanely brutal beat. The Chiefs were just getting us warmed up for the Panthers +5. After a competitive first half, the Panthers allowed a horrific early drive in the third quarter to go down 11. After a couple punts, the Packers lined up for a 51 yard field goal, wide right. Wait, there’s a flag. They actually called the Panthers for lining up over the center (they did not, but I suppose it’s arguable enough). The FG was good on the second try and the Panthers were down 14. They answered with a sound touchdown drive and went for two, ultimately getting the ball down 8 with two and a half minutes left on their own 11. After an eventful drive they ultimately had 1st and goal at the Packers 2 with 8 seconds left. A bad play call on first down had them down to one play for the game. They hand it to McCaffrey who (almost) certainly broke the plane and scored but he was ruled short on the field and Curtis Samuel was fully impeding the view needed to overturn on replay, ending the game.


NBA Betting with TJ CalkinsTJ Calkins – NFL Picks Expert

TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday.


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