NFL Betting Plays and Predictions – Week 10

November 12, 2020

After a heat wave that hit most of the continental United States last week, fall and perhaps winter is certainly here and here to stay for the remainder of the season. We are moving closer to snow games but also we are seeing a semblance of normal over the past few weeks.

This one off season was certainly odd at the onset but I am relieved at the normalization. Perhaps it is me adjusting to the insane amount of injuries and not a normalization, but in any event, I feel I have much better reads over the past month or so, and the results are showing. Let’s get to this week’s NFL picks and predictions.

This Weeks Betting Plays

MatchupBetting Play
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersOver 47.5
Washington Football Team at Detroit LionsFootball Team +3
Houston Texans at Cleveland BrownsBrowns -3 and Over 48.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami DolphinsDolphins -1.5
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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Betting Play: Over 47.5

4:25PM EST
Opening Line: Steelers -10 and 48.5
Current Line: Steelers -7.5 and 47.5

The Steelers are inarguably the hottest team through the midway point of their schedule, boasting the league’s only undefeated record. To put in perspective how impressive that is, consider that there is only one other team with one loss.

It hasn’t been a cake walk for them by any means. While they have played a relatively easy schedule, they have five wins by just one score and two more wins of exactly 10 points. There has been just one blow out in their eight wins. They have gotten there with an opportunistic defense and a high end passing game. Their wide receiving trio is easily the best in the NFL and like their opponents before them, the Bengals won’t have an answer. The Steelers have scored at least 24 points in every game this season, and this is hardly a difficult matchup for them.

The Bengals are exploitable at every level and have allowed at least 23 points in 6 of 8 games and allowed 31 or more in the three of those. They have also allowed at least 23 in every road game. That figure should be considered the rock bottom floor for the Steeler offense. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals are also a pass happy unit, and we should get an absolute mountain of plays run in this game.

I think it’s somewhat probable the Bengals make a mistake on offense and the Steelers defense scores a touchdown, but that will only push the scoring pace and the pass happiness even further.

What I’m getting at here, is the total in this game is set too low, and we are likely to see a game in the 50s and cannot rule out the 60s. This was a total I circled when lines were released, hoping it didn’t spike too much. Now that it has dropped, it is in must play territory.

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Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions

Betting Play: Football Team +3

1PM EST
Opening Line: Lions -4 and 45.5
Current Line: Lions -3 and 45.5

The Lions were a team looking like they might surpass expectations at the beginning of the season, but we have seen the wheels come off the last couple of weeks. Their defense has been utterly helpless against backs and have allowed 41 and 34 points in consecutive weeks. They have also been inept defensively at home all season. They are 0-3 and they’ve allowed at least 27 points in every home game, which is notable because they have only scored past that total twice on the season.

Speaking of the offense lacking points, this unit has lost its best playmaker for the foreseeable future in Kenny Golladay, and is in danger of being without tight end TJ Hockenson as well. On the other side, we had zero expectations for them coming into the season, but they have shaped up as competitive, particularly since moving on from Dwayne Haskins at quarterback.

They now are forced to make another quarterback change after the injury to Kyle Allen, but they have lucked into established vet Alex Smith making a recovery and well enough to take over the reigns at quarterback. Fortunately for them, this is a matchup where they will likely be able to run the ball quite effectively, and will be able to ease Smith back into the game. Rookie back Antonio Gibson should be the star of this game, and with the current state of each team, I would certainly deem the Football Team the more likely to win.

In any event, a competitive Lions team would not be blowing anyone out, and the three points that come on the Washington side are incredibly attractive. The Football Team is the play here as the descending Lions likely lose to the ascending Football Team.

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Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Betting Plays: Browns -3 and Over 48.5

1PM EST
Opening Line: Browns -2.5 and 54.5
Current Line: Browns -3 and 48.5

My first thought when digging into this game was, Nick Chubb is going to go nuclear in this matchup. The Texans are friendly to run of the mill backs, but can be absolutely decimated by high end rushers like Chubb. With Chubb returning this week, the Browns and Chubb are set up to drop a similar result to Derrick Henry’s 22/212/2 line against them on the ground. It should also be noted the Titans scored 42 in that game and the total landed on 78, and I see many similarities in this matchup.

The Browns, much like the Titans have a very exploitable secondary, and one that Deshaun Watson and company will be able to exploit as they attempt to keep pace with the Browns offense, which will use the one two punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt at will as they will face little resistance from the Texan front.

The Texans have allowed at least 25 points in every game except a Jaguars matchup this season, and the Browns are built perfectly to drop points on their defense. On the other side, Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks will likewise run free against the Browns secondary, and I expect to see a similar performance from Watson as to what we saw against Tennesee. He had 335 passing in that game to go with four touchdowns. Much like the Texans, the Browns have struggled giving up points, and have allowed at least 30 points to every competent passing attack they’ve faced this season.

Sometimes we simply get specific matchups that favors the offense on both sides of the ball, and this is one of those games. We are going to see a lot of points and the total dropping six points is absolutely wild to me. The over is an absolute lock it in play, but that’s not where this game ends in terms of plays. With the Browns high end rushing attack and the consistent scoring that comes with that, I lean them to get the win and cover. Browns and the over in this one.

Note: if it looks like we will be experiencing high winds in Cleveland on game day like we saw roll in on the day of the Raiders game, the over would come off the table, but the Browns would not.

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Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Betting Play: Dolphins -1.5

4:05PM EST
Opening Line: Dolphins -1.5 and 47.5
Current Line: Dolphins -1.5 and 48

Don’t look now, but the surging Dolphins may actually be the real deal. After a 1-3 start, they have won four straight and had a field day with west coast teams in that span. Three of those wins have come against west coast teams, and the three wins combined for a +40 point differential against the 49ers, Rams and Cardinals.

With the training wheels off in his second start last week, Tua Tagovailoa looked the part as he lead his team to his second win against the Cardinals. Enter a home matchup with the 2-6 Chargers who have only been able to muster wins against the Bengals in Burrow’s first start and the lowly Jaguars. The Chargers have also allowed at least 29 points in five consecutive weeks and that is a trend we can expect to continue.

Their defense is not pulling their weight and are being beaten soundly by opposing passing games. While rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has been a bright spot for them, the offense is simply having a difficult time keeping up with the scoring paces allowed. While west coast native Herbert is avoiding the 1PM start time, this will still be his first start on the east coast and for the life of me, I do not understand why the line is not wider for this Dolphins team that is impressing on a weekly basis.

To win this game, the Chargers would likely have to match the 39 points they scored on the Jaguars. All things considered, the Dolphins laying less than a field goal feels like stealing, and if it is a trap line, it is one I am happy to fall into backing the Dolphins.

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Other Game Predictions

🏈 Packers win and cover against the Jaguars, over

🏈 Eagles win and cover against the Giants, over (the over here was close to being a dedicated play)

🏈 Bucs win but no cover against the Panthers, under

🏈 Raiders win and cover against the Broncos, over

🏈 Cardinals win and cover against the Bills, over

🏈 Seahawks win as underdogs at the Rams, over

🏈 Saints win but no cover against the 49ers, under

🏈 Ravens win and cover at the Patriots, under

TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.