NFL Draft Props Update
21 April 2020
Last updated: 03 July 2020 at 6:45 am
Great news guys, it’s NFL draft week!! The NFL draft is a yearly holiday for NFL fans, NFL bettors and NFL fantasy players alike, but also has an added wrinkle this year. With high profile sports being near or completely non existent for at least a little bit longer, the NFL draft will draw a level of wagering never before seen for the specific event.
Early this month, I wrote a piece on the best draft prop bets. With some new information and betting trends happening since then, this piece will serve as an update to that one. There will be some spots to press and some new entries as well. There will also be line updates.
Once again I went to the DraftKings sports book for lines and available props. We have many more lines and betting options available now than we did earlier in the month, so we have some fun additions.
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Our initial rundown of team’s first selection plays were as follows:
- Philadelphia Eagles – first selection at wide receiver -143
- New York Giants – first selection on defense -110
- Indianapolis Colts – first selection on offense -152
- Baltimore Ravens – first selection on offense -125
- Las Vegas Raiders – first selection on offense -200
- Miami Dolphins – first selection on defense +520
Working our way down the list, we will start with the Eagles. Wide receiver has spiked to -200 and that is a good one to leave as is and hold the value we got.
The Giants buzz is that they are eyeing offensive line first, and the first selection on defense line has moved all the way to +300. I still think there is quite a reasonable chance Simmons is their pick, but this bet has become an anti value and is now just hold and hope.
The Colts to select and offensive player has raised to -167 and is still in a value range. This is a spot worth pressing a bit as wide receiver and quarterback remain the most likely outcomes.
The Ravens first selection on offense has fallen to -110. Without a ton of movement here, this is one to stay put with current action or to get some action on offense with an even friendlier -110 price tag.
The Raiders remain destined to take a wide receiver with their first pick, but we have not seen any line movement to reflect it. They remain -200 for first selection on offense and that is still a value, despite laying 2:1. Pressing this is prudent.
The Dolphins first selection on defense has moved from +520 to +625. It was a value than and is more of a value now. This is perhaps the most prime spot early in the draft to attack a value return on a wager that isn’t the most likely outcome, but one that offers a value return and could be a press.
New Team Props
Arizona Cardinals – First Selection On Offense -250
The Cardinals, sitting at 8th overall, are in a sweet spot to select one of the top four offensive linemen in the draft. No matter which order the players are selected, this selection fills a need and they get a quality player. The best available at other positions will make this choice even easier for them to make Kyler Murray’s life easier.
Cleveland Browns – First Selection On Offensive Line -305
As much sense as it makes for the Cardinals to look to the offensive line, it makes even more sense for the Browns, and is just about a foregone conclusion that they will address their biggest need. Pass protection was a massive liability for the Browns in 2019 and they could even move up from 10th overall to make this happen.
Houston Texans – First Selection On Defense -143
We know the laughable trades Bill O’Brien has made this offseason, but there are dots to connect. The incoming vets have all addressed the offensive side of the ball and the defense is likely where they look hoping for immediate impact, as the offense does not have many holes to plug and play a rookie. Houston does not have a first round pick so this selection will likely be on Friday.
New Orleans Saints – First Selection On Offense +110
There is a soft, but real buzz that the Saints look to expand its wide receiving offerings in what is likely Drew Brees last season. This is the draft class to do it, and despite wide receiver being deemed the most likely position by sportsbooks, we are getting plus odds on the offensive side of the ball. With stud Michael Thomas and stop gap Emmanuel Sanders in place, look for the Saints to grab their WR3 for 2020 and ultimately their Sanders replacement. There is the real option to increase the rate of return and go with specifically the wide receiver position at +175.
Our initial rundown of player props were as follows:
|Jordan Love||over pick 17.5||-110|
|D’andre Swift||over pick 26.6||-167|
|Jonathan Taylor||over pick 37.5||103|
|Jonathan Taylor||first RB selected||200|
|Henry Ruggs||first WR selected||250|
|Albert Okwuegbunam||firts TE selected||1600|
|Cole Kmet||over pick 44.5||-137|
|Mekhi Becton||under 8.5||-134|
|Mekhi Becton||first OL selected||200|
|Isaiah Simmons||under 6.5||-152|
|Kenneth Murray||over 21.5||-110|
|Xavier McKinney||first S selected||-200|
As I did in the initial piece, I’ll break down by position, including line updates and new plays.
Line movement: Jordan Love over 17.5 -110 ↗️ 19.5 -110
The Jordan Love pick line has moved to 19.5, and I remain comfortable with it being over that. With value locked into the initial wager of over 17.5, I am comfortable pressing this one. Note that Love is -500 to go in the top 32 picks while players like Jefferson and Murray have higher pick totals but are both -1000 for top 32.
D’andre Swift over pick 26.6 -167 ➡️ 26.6 -167
Jonathan Taylor – over pick 37.5 +103 ➡️ 37.5 +103
Jonathan Taylor – first RB selected +200 ➡️ +200
We haven’t seen much or zero line movement on any of these and should stand pat with what we originally have at the position.
Line movement: Henry Ruggs – first WR selected +250 ➡️No movement
We have seen no line movement on Ruggs as first wide receiver and are standing pat with that one.
Added at WR
Denzel Mims -167 to be drafted ahead of Tee Higgins
Quite frankly, offering this 1v1 is a mistake. Mims has all but locked himself into the 1st round while Higgins will only have begun being considered at the very end of the 1st round with Mims comfortably off the board. This is an extremely high value play.
Denzel Mims -150 to be selected top 32
Jalen Reagor -143 to be selected top 32
Brandon Aiyuk -115 to be selected top 32
This group of wide receivers should and will go day one, and even if one plummets, it just means the other two were pushed up boards. This is a sound trio to bet to see off the board day one.
Last WR note – the prop is not available on DraftKings but other books are offering total Round 1 wide receivers at 5.5. The over on this is quite a sound bet.
Albert Okwuegbunam – first TE selected +1600 ↘️ +900
Cole Kmet – over pick 44.5 -137 ↘️No offer
We seem to have profited in a big way with our early tight end bets. The Kmet total is off the board and Okwuegbunam has plummeted to +900 from +1600 to be the first tight end selected. Unfortunately we don’t have real options to press these spots.
Mekhi Becton – under 8.5 -134 ↘️ No offer
Mekhi Becton – First OL selected +200 ↗️ +1200
The Becton lines have had massive change. His pick total is off the board entirely and he has fallen to +1200 to be the first lineman selected. While he remains my top graded lineman in the class, we are stuck with antivalue tickets to hold and hope.
Isaiah Simmons – under 6.5 -152 ➡️ No movement
Kenneth Murray – over 21.5 -110 ➡️ No movement
We’ve seen no movement on either player and are content to stand pat.
Line movement: Xavier McKinney – first S selected -200 ↘️–305
We profited locking McKinney early as the first safety. He has spiked from -200 to -305, where it still might offer value and an option to press.
We’ve added another eight plays to our action and have multiple spots where we can press the action already played. I hope you enjoy the three day event of the draft as much as I will. Not confirmed but perhaps I will bring a brief piece for overnight action between the Thu-Fri and Fri-Sat portions. Let me know on twitter @tjcalkins and @ussportsbonus if this is something you’d be interested in.
TJ Calkins – NFL Picks Expert
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday.