Marvin Vettori vs Kevin Holland Prediction

April 7, 2021

Marvin Vettori -330 vs Kevin Holland

Fight is five rounds at 185 lbs and is -170 to end inside the distance.

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UFC Fight Night Predictions: Vettori vs Holland & MORE

Betting Play: Holland +270

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Betting Play: Holland +270

If you follow this column regularly, I already know what you’re thinking. Kevin Holland let us down in a big way the last time, are we really going back to him? The answer is yes, and I will explain why.

We know Holland put on a putrid performance last time. Fact is, it was not the first time he has done so. I touched on the pit falls of the unfocused version of Holland leading into the Brunson fight. It is a worry with Holland, and while I thought those days might be behind us, they clearly are not.

The Achilles heel of Holland has been being controlled on the mat. He is rarely truly in danger of being finished. His problem is accepting bottom position at times with zero urgency to return to his feet. That is precisely what lead to his demise against Brunson.

Even still, it was not all bad. We saw the crisp and rangy striking of Holland own the standup portion of that fight. That will hold true in this UFC Vegas 23 matchup with Vettori as well. Holland is a better, longer and more dangerous striker than Vettori.

The questions are on the wrestling side of things. Will Holland be more urgent in keeping the fight standing? If no, will he be more urgent in returning to his feet. Can he get a KO against the tough Vettori before being grounded? The truth is, we only need a yes response to one of those questions to have an extremely live dog cash in this main event.

The key question in this matchup is, how can you trust Holland after his last performance? Well, the short answer is you can’t, certainly not fully. What is different in this fight compared to the last is the betting line. Holland is a large underdog and a full degree of trust is certainly not required.

Let’s ask, if that poor performance against Brunson had not happened, what would this betting line be? The responses to that question would vary, but there would be a consensus that it would not be remotely this wide.

I know I have not dove into Vettori, and that is mainly because I believe this fight is all about Holland. Even still, it needs touched on. Vettori will be giving up 3” of height and 7” of reach and will not be the better striker. He will be the fighter in danger of losing ITD in the stand up portion. Where he is better is as a grappler and a wrestler. I hesitate to call him as good of a wrestler as Brunson, but he is better than Holland. Vettori is a great grappler, and will match or beat Holland on the mat.

The key remains Holland either executing or not executing a game plan. I believe he can beat any middleweight in the world, but we will need the focused variety. When the price tag on Holland comes at +270, it is easy to throw that dart with the significant plus money figure. He will be our play as he looks to avoid consecutive losses for the first time in his career.

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TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.