• Sat
    Jun 19
  • 12:30 am
    BKN
    MIL
    -120
    100
  • 12:00 am
    NYI
    TBL
    125
    -147
  • Fri
    Jun 18
  • 2:00 am
    LAC
    UTA
    100
    -120
  • 12:00 am
    MTL
    VGK
    140
    -167
  • Thu
    Jun 17
  • FINAL
    NYI
    TBL
    118
    -139
  • Wed
    Jun 16
  • FINAL
    PHI
    ATL
    -278
    230
  • Tue
    Jun 15
  • FINAL
    BKN
    MIL
    125
    -149
  • Mon
    Jun 14
  • FINAL
    VGK
    MTL
    -250
    200
  • FINAL
    ATL
    PHI
    120
    -145
  • Sun
    Jun 13
  • FINAL
    DEN
    PHX
    105
    -130
  • FINAL
    TBL
    NYI
    -189
    155
  • FINAL
    MIL
    BKN
    110
    -135
  • Fri
    Jun 11
  • FINAL
    DEN
    PHX
    -130
    105
  • FINAL
    ATL
    PHI
    100
    -120
  • Thu
    Jun 10
  • FINAL
    UTA
    LAC
    -149
    125
  • FINAL
    VGK
    COL
    -114
    -103
  • Wed
    Jun 9
  • FINAL
    PHX
    DEN
    -278
    210
  • FINAL
    NYI
    BOS
    118
    -139
  • Tue
    Jun 8
  • FINAL
    UTA
    LAC
    -175
    145
  • FINAL
    COL
    VGK
    -145
    120
  • FINAL
    PHI
    ATL
    -179
    148

John Castaneda vs Eddie Wineland Predictions

February 17, 2021

UFC

John Castaneda -125 vs Eddie Wineland

Betting Play: Castaneda -125

Fight is at 135 lbs and is +135 to end inside the distance.

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UFC Fight Night Predictions: Blaydes vs Lewis Prelims

Betting Play: Castaneda -125

This UFC Vegas 19 fight marks Eddie Wineland’s first return to the octagon after being knocked out brutally by Sean O’Malley in June. The 36 year old showed signs of waning durability leading up to the O’Malley fight, and after such a nasty KO, Wineland’s durability may very well be a thing of the past. That durability is my sole focus in this fight, as I think his chin will give out.

On the John Castaneda side, we saw some developments form him in his fight against Nathaniel Wood, and I don’t necessarily believe he needs a knock out to win this fight. He is not a heavy handed striker, but he will land clean and landing clean is likely all it takes to end Wineland’s night.

On the grappling side, Castaneda could turn to wrestling if needed, and I believe he could score takedowns and top control time. A submission on either side is unlikely on either side, but we could see grappling play a part in which fighter earns a decision, should the fight go the distance.

The difficulty for me in this matchup is choosing between the safe flat play UFC pick on Castaneda at -125 or attacking the ITD line at what is a quite favorable +335. I am landing on taking the safe side and the flat play, but supplementing that with a smaller wager on the ITD line would be prudent.

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TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.