John Castaneda vs Eddie Wineland Predictions

18 February 2021

UFC Vegas 19

John Castaneda -125 vs Eddie Wineland

Fight is at 135 lbs and is +135 to end inside the distance.

Betting Play: Castaneda -125

This UFC Vegas 19 fight marks Eddie Wineland’s first return to the octagon after being knocked out brutally by Sean O’Malley in June. The 36 year old showed signs of waning durability leading up to the O’Malley fight, and after such a nasty KO, Wineland’s durability may very well be a thing of the past. That durability is my sole focus in this fight, as I think his chin will give out.

On the John Castaneda side, we saw some developments form him in his fight against Nathaniel Wood, and I don’t necessarily believe he needs a knock out to win this fight. He is not a heavy handed striker, but he will land clean and landing clean is likely all it takes to end Wineland’s night.

On the grappling side, Castaneda could turn to wrestling if needed, and I believe he could score takedowns and top control time. A submission on either side is unlikely on either side, but we could see grappling play a part in which fighter earns a decision, should the fight go the distance.

The difficulty for me in this matchup is choosing between the safe flat play UFC pick on Castaneda at -125 or attacking the ITD line at what is a quite favorable +335. I am landing on taking the safe side and the flat play, but supplementing that with a smaller wager on the ITD line would be prudent.

Betting Play: Castaneda -125

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