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2020 NFL Draft Day 1 Results and Day 2 Plays

24 April 2020

TJ Calkins NFL Picks and Predictions

I hope you had as much fun as I did with the first round on Thursday night. We had some completely expected and some completely unexpected. Let’s look at how we did.

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The Wins

✅ Philadelphia Eagles – first selection at wide receiver -143
✅ Las Vegas Raiders – first selection on offense -200
✅ Cleveland Browns – First Selection On Offensive Line -305
✅ New Orleans Saints – First Selection On Offense +110
✅ Jordan Love – over pick 17.5 -110
✅ Jordan Love – over pick 19.5 -110
✅ D’andre Swift – over pick 26.6 -167
✅ Henry Ruggs – first WR selected +250
✅ Jalen Reagor – to be selected top 32 -143
✅ Brandon Aiyuk  – to be selected top 32 -115
✅ Over 5.5 Round 1 wide receivers -115

There’s not a whole lot to say. We bet these because they were the expected outcomes, and these worked out.

The Losses

❌ New York Giants – first selection on defense -110
❌ Baltimore Ravens – first selection on offense -125
❌ Miami Dolphins – first selection on defense +520
❌ Arizona Cardinals – First Selection On Offense -250
❌ Mekhi Becton – under 8.5 -134
❌ Mekhi Becton – First OL selected +200
❌ Isaiah Simmons – under 6.5 -152
❌ Denzel Mims -150 to be selected top 32

The single largest unfortunate occurrence was Simmons falling to the Cardinals at 8 overall, this cost us a pair of bets. We knew the Becton bets were real long-shots in the week leading up to the draft. The Seahawks were the culprit on our Ravens bet bricking, as they passed on Queen only to take a different linebacker graded as a day 3 player by most. The positional route would likely have changed for the Ravens does this not occur.

Still Pending

💸 Indianapolis Colts – first selection on offense -152
💸 Houston Texans – First Selection On Defense -143
💸 Jonathan Taylor – over pick 37.5 +103
💸 Jonathan Taylor – first RB selected +200
💸 Albert Okwuegbunam – first TE selected +1600
💸 Cole Kmet – over pick 44.5 -137
💸 Denzel Mims -167 to be drafted ahead of Tee Higgins
💸 Xavier McKinney – first S selected -200

With all of these still extremely live and already returning some profit, day 2 will be even more fun than day 1!

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New Action For Day 2

I’m back to the Draft Kings sports book for overnight lines leading up to the Friday portion of the NFL Draft.

Jalen Hurts – Over 55.5 +110

Jacob Eason – Over 49.5 -110

With the consensus and expected top four quarterbacks coming off the board on Thursday, we should see a fairly considerable tier break before the next one comes off the board as the grading from teams won’t dictate a rush for the next group. It would be mildly shocking to see either Love or Eason go in the first half of the second round, but would be wholly shocking to see both go in that span. I see this as a pair of bets to take with a split being the most likely outcome but having a very realistic chance of winning both while losing both would be the true upset.

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Bengals second drafted player – on offense -167

The Bengals got their cornerstone quarterback in Joe Burrow with the draft’s first pick, now to address protecting him and helping Joe Mixon find some space. I believe this will be an offensive lineman. There is a specific prop for that at +110 but I feel the trade off to cover the wide receiver outcome is a better value to just take the blanket of all offense.

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First S Drafted – Xavier McKinney -200

With McKinney slipping out of the first round, the odds have slipped back to -200 and once again becomes the top value on the betting board. The next closest safety, Grant Delpit, sits at +400.

This completes the viable plays with the offerings on DraftKings. To expand a little bit I have pivoted to the Fan Duel sportsbook and will lock in some offerings there.

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Next QB drafted – Jake Fromm +500

This is a bit of a punt play but I like the odds too much to pass on. It’s no secret that draft prognosticators as a whole don’t like Fromm as much as NFL teams do. It’s kind of a usually unspoken thing that will be acknowledged by most Fromm detractors if the issue is forced. I see Fromm being the best fit for the Patriots, who will be taking a signal caller in this draft. Fromm seems to fit better for the Pats with a game that isn’t fancy, but able to hit the quick hitting throws so prominent in the Pats game. Eason is not nearly as close to NFL ready and Hurts would mean a scheme adjustment which I don’t see happening.

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Next RB drafted – Jonathan Taylor +260

I acknowledge many prefer Swift to Taylor in terms of draft capital. This is a spot where the betting line is so ridiculously wide, we don’t have an option but to press the matter. Swift and Taylor are an essential coinflip to be the next back off the board yet it costs laying -330 on Swift and we get +260 on Taylor. Just easy value to attack.

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Next CB drafted – Trevon Diggs +190

Trevon Diggs – under 41.5

This first play is admittedly based purely on my own grading of the players available and I do believe Diggs should at least be the smallest odds of being the next corner taken, but that is currently Kristian Fulton. Another value to take is Diggs going in the first 10 picks on Friday, which cashes even if he’s not the first corner selected. 

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Betting Picks with TJ Calkins

TJ Calkins – NFL Picks Expert

TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday.

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