US Masters 2021 – Odds and Predictions

April 6, 2021

The Pick: Dustin Johnson to win (9-1)

We are back to our normal golf schedule for the year. This means the US Masters is in April once again. Of the never ending list of things that were odd in 2020, Masters taking place in November was high on the list for me.

Here we are, six months removed from Dustin Johnson receiving his first green jacket. We will be back glued to our TVs as the favorite tries to repeat. He will be our best US Masters 2021 betting pick, but we will also run through thoughts on the other favorites and also try to nail some longshots.

The Pick: Dustin Johnson to win (9-1)

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Let’s move on the the top five of the list from William Hill Sportsbook (full list below):

Dustin Johnson 9-1
Jordan Spieth 10-1
Justin Thomas 10-1
Bryson DeChambeau 11-1
Jon Rahm 12-1

No one quite jumps off the page like Dustin Johnson. I still believe him to have the most dominant game of anyone on tour when he is playing well, and that has been the case recently. He convincingly won at Augusta in November and will look to be the fourth back to back champion.

Johnson has taken a month off, so we don’t have extremely recent results to go off of. What we do have is his dominance at the three Majors that took place in 2020. He won at Augusta by four strokes. He was a bit off form at the US Open, only finishing sixth. At the PGA Championship he had to settle as runner up.

✅ Johnson seems to have cracked the code of Augusta. He has not had a finish outside of the Masters top ten since 2014.

✅ When it comes to Majors, Johnson will remain a staple in the short list of contenders come Sunday. This will hold true for the foreseeable future. At 9-1 and very similarly priced to the other favorites, Johnson remains the best bet in the field to win the Masters.

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Other US Masters 2021 Predictions

The next best bet after Johnson would be Jon Rahm, at slightly longer 12-1 odds. He has also skipped the more recent tournaments. He is not a player who needs to have played a tournament last week to do well this week. As with Johnson, the bit of time off is a non-factor. He will always do well tee to green, which is historically where the Masters is won. He is also sound with clutch putting if the tournament comes down to a putt on Sunday.

Jordan Spieth is all the rage this week after his win last week. After a long stretch of difficulties, his game is back on form. That said I believe his value is the worst in the field. Even if he is playing his best golf, that does not quite stack up to the Johnsons and Rahms of the world, who are back in the field this week.

Justin Thomas is making his first start since winning The Players Championship. He is absolutely a contender. While he is a contender, the 10-1 price tag is not value laden, so I would sit out on a play on Thomas.

Bryson DeChambeau has elevated himself to elite status. His game has come to catch up with the best and his recent success shows it. However, he is a player that has not figured out how to score at Augusta. He has never finished even top 20 in five tries. He isn’t an attractive option as the short odds players go.

Rory McIlroy probably provides more name value than substance at this time. While he is still a high end player, expecting a win at Augusta might be far fetched. His odds are not remotely playable.

When looking for longer shots and longer odds, there are a couple of options over the 30-1 mark. We have two players that are ascending and showed they could handle Augusta last year, as both finished tied for second place.

Cameron Smith, at 33-1, is coming off three straight top 20 finishes. Of course that is not as impressive as his runner up finish at last year’s Masters. The up and coming Aussie was so steady last year, posting four consecutive rounds in the 60s.

My favorite longer odds play in the field is Sung-Jae Im at 35-1. The 23 year old finished tied for second in his Masters debut last year. He has not quite broken through. However, if he can avoid a blow up day, he has the game to be in contention come Sunday.

The most recent odds, courtesy of William Hill Sportsbook

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Hideki Matsuyama 25-1Ian Poulter 100-1Justin Harding 300-1
Tony Finau 25-1Kevin Kisner 125-1Max Homa 300-1
Patrick Cantlay 25-1Danny Willett 125-1Tyler Duncan 400-1
Tyrrell Hatton 28-1Si-Woo Kim 125-1Andrew Landry 400-1
Bubba Watson 28-1Brandt Snedeker 125-1Jazz Janewattananond 500-1
Patrick Reed 28-1Matt Kuchar 125-1Fred Couples 500-1
Collin Morikawa 30-1Brendon Todd 125-1Nate Lashley 500-1
Jason Day 33-1Erik van Rooyen 125-1C.T. Pan 500-1
Webb Simpson 33-1Lanto Griffin 150-1Shugo Imahira 500-1
Matthew Wolff 33-1Corey Conners 150-1Andrew Putnam 500-1
Tiger Woods 35-1Charl Schwartzel 150-1Sung-Hoon Kang 500-1
Jordan Spieth 40-1Sebastian Munoz 150-1Jimmy Walker 500-1
Adam Scott 40-1Henrik Stenson 150-1Bernhard Langer 500-1
Tommy Fleetwood 40-1Matt Wallace 150-1John Augenstein 750-1
Scottie Scheffler 50-1Marc Leishman 150-1Vijay Singh 1000-1
Louis Oosthuizen 50-1Billy Horschel 150-1Andy Ogletree 1000-1
Justin Rose 50-1Zach Johnson 150-1Lukas Michel 1000-1
Paul Casey 55-1Victor Perez 200-1Mike Weir 1000-1
Sergio Garcia 60-1Christiaan Bezuidenhout 200-1Abel Gallegos 1000-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 60-1Bernd Wiesberger 200-1Yuxin Lin 1000-1
Shane Lowry 66-1Kevin Na 200-1James Sugrue 1500-1
Rickie Fowler 66-1Byeong Hun An 200-1Jose Maria Olazabal 2000-1
Sung-Jae Im 66-1Dylan Frittelli 250-1Sandy Lyle 2000-1
Cameron Smith 70-1Lucas Glover 250-1Larry Mize 2000-1
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.