UFC Vegas 6 – Lewis vs Oleinik – Betting Picks and Predictions

August 5, 2020

Thanks for stopping back for this week’s 12 fight card. By any stretch of the imagination, this week will be better than last week’s disaster. What started as an 11 fight card last week, dwindled down to just eight fights with only six of the original matchups taking place. We even had a fight cancelled leading up to walk outs, which needless to say, is a very rare occurrence.

This Weeks Plays

👊Gavin Tucker vs Justin Jaynes👊Jaynes +110Jaynes via KO +250
👊Nasrat Haqparast vs Alex Munoz👊Haqparast via KO +165
👊Darren Stewart vs Maki Pitolo👊Stewart via KO +165
👊Chris Weidman vs Omari Akhmedov👊Weidman -130
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The three fights we had plays on had mixed results, going 1-1-1. They were as follows:

Loss – Joanne Calderwood -165 – Calderwood was about even in the striking department in the first round when she decided to go for and complete a take down. She was controlling but Jennifer Maia was more active from her guard than we have previously seen, and Calderwood allowed an armbar to be cinched in and ultimately completed with the tap out. Calderwood did not fully seem herself and did faint after the fight, but no excuses here. She was somewhat careless in top control and was submitted.

Win – Bobby Green +120 – Bobby Green simply outclassed Lando Vannata in this fight, as he had the better striking and grappling as he cruised to winning every round, and walking away with an easy decision. Green looked great and put it on Vannata, he could have found a finish in most iterations but Vannata hung on.

Push/Draw – Cody Durden +260 – This was a bummer of a push when it’s with a +260 dog. Durden owned the first round with his grappling being superior, and held Gutierrez back for the majority of the round, pushing for chokes and landing some ground and pound. All three judges scored the round 10-8 for Durden. Unfortunately the short notice fight caused the gas tank to fail and he lost the second and third rounds, and all three judges scored it a draw, for the first unanimous draw without a point deduction in UFC history.

On to this week’s card. We should get some fun finishes as eight of the twelve fights are at a minus figure to end inside the distance, and three of the other four are at +125 or less.

We won’t have a dedicated main event play this week in the striker versus grappler matchup, but if you do fire action at the Lewis vs Oleinik fight, be sure to take the value in each fighter’s path to victory. Lewis via KO at -145 is the best bet on him while Oleinik via submission at +255 is the best bet on that side.

I’ll list the plays and then a prediction for the remaining fights. Let’s get to them.

Gavin Tucker -140 vs Justin Jaynes

Betting Plays:Jaynes +110Jaynes via KO +250

Fight is at 145 lbs and is -105 to end inside the distance.

To draw a comparison on a similarly lined recent fight, this feels a lot like Bobby Green did last week against Lando Vannata. I find myself scratching my head as to why the underdog is the underdog in this fight. I don’t believe it’s only that the wrong fighter is favored, I believe the underdog should be something of a significant favorite. I struggle to see the area Gavin Tucker carries an advantage in this fight. Tucker isn’t a high volume striker, he does have a little pop in his strikes, but he allows himself to be backed up and will get lit up moving backwards. In this matchup, the power Jaynes brings with his hands in conjunction with his pressure is something of a nightmare for Tucker, that will almost certainly lead to a KO. Tucker will try to bail himself out of these situations with his wrestling, but it is difficult to see that approach working in this matchup. I believe Jaynes to be better with both offensive and defensive wrestling and he is likely the better BJJ player as well. Tucker is going to get melted in this matchup and if you are a bettor that does not keep your units stagnant, this is the play on the card to attack most heavily at +110. I also believe pressing the action for value with Jaynes via KO at +250 is prudent.

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