UFC Vegas 39 Predictions

October 6, 2021

8:00 PM ET Oct 9
Matheus Nicolau vs TIm Elliott
8:00 PM ET Oct 9
Alexandr Romanov vs Jared Vanderaa
Romanov ITD

UFC Vegas 39 starts at 1PM EST on Saturday, and takes place at the Apex in Las Vegas. 

This was a lower level Fight Night card to begin with, and now has just 10 fights. Those 10 fights are headlined by a strawweight matchup between Mackenzie Dern -165 and Marina Rodriguez. Completely a striker vs grappler matchup, this fight will be decided by which fighter can dictate where the fight takes place. Rodriguez will look to use her world class BJJ game and get the fight to the floor. Rodriguez will want the fight standing where she can unleash her elite Muay Thai striking throughout. 

There is not a recommended UFC bet for this fight, but for those needing action, the underdog in Rodriguez is the better bet, and the +300 ITD line is the most attractive on her. 

Let's take a look at our recommended picks for this week. 

Matheus Nicolau -200 vs Tim Elliott

✅ Nicolau will be the better and busier striker. His boxing skill set and strong calf kicks will set him apart in the stand up. Elliott does not bring KO danger and Nicolau will be free to operate with takedown defense being the only major concern. 

✅ The one area of advantage for Elliott, the wrestling, will be counteracted by Nicolau's superior BJJ game. Nicolau will be able to sweep or return to his feet, not allowing any real top control time for Elliott nor taking any damage. 

✅ Nicolau will have a cardio advantage, and it will lead to him touching up Elliott in the later portion of the fight. Elliott becomes wildly hittable in these late stages of fights. 

Betting Pick: Nicolau -200

Alexandr Romanov -625 vs Jared Vanderaa

✅ Romanov has won all three of his UFC fights, finishing two on the floor. The lone decision was against high end grappler Juan Espino. His wrestling skill set is high end and gives him every opportunity to get to work on the floor. 

✅ We have already seen Vanderaa finished on the ground by Serghei Spivac. This matchup with Romanov is similar for him, yet so much more difficult and daunting. The wrestling prowess and ground and pound is much more daunting and heavy from Romanov than it is from Spivac. 

✅ Vanderaa is not a heavyweight that packs massive one shot power. While a quick flash KO is a worry in heavyweight fights, Vanderaa does not bring the power in his hands to make that a real worry. 

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Betting Pick: Romanov ITD -250
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.