UFC Vegas 17 – Neal vs Thompson Betting Picks and Predictions

December 16, 2020

2020 has been a wild ride in all aspects of our lives, but MMA, particularly UFC, has been a part of it throughout, and I am thankful for that. This event will be our 33rd event in 32 weeks, which is unprecedented for the UFC, and while I am wholly thankful for that, a couple weeks off to refresh is always welcomed.

We will try to close the year out right here, and we are entering this event with 35.5 units of profit. With six plays on this card, we are looking to get that figure over 40 units of profit for the year.

This card is well made, and was essentially initially overbooked, but that seems prudent at the moment. We have lost four fights thus far, but still have 13 fights for the card. Included on the 13 fight card, are seven fights that I would deem worthy of being on a pay per view main card, and that makes it an extremely fun way to close out 2020. Also included in the 13 fight card are six betting plays. Without further ado, let’s get to the UFC Picks – first in video followed by a full review in text.

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UFC Fight Night Preview Thompson vs Neal

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Geoff Neal pick em vs Stephen Thompson

Betting Play: Neal ITD +195

Fight is five rounds at 170 lbs and is -155 to end inside the distance.

This was not our originally scheduled main event, as it was supposed to be Khamzat Chimaev vs Leon Edwards, but that fight has been moved to January. Luckily for us, we had this fight queued up to slide right into main event slotting.

These two high end strikers have been on converging career trajectories and Wonderboy Thompson will be looking to change their respective paths, while Neal will be looking to accelerate those paths. Wonderboy has made a career off of being a high end and unique striker, and brings a karate stance with an extremely high end kicking game.

He also has seamless stance switches that are unrivaled by any fighter in MMA. He is a precise striker, but is something of a point fighter. His last win via finish was back in 2016, and he is just 2-4 since that time and has been knocked down in all four losses and knocked out in one of those fights, by Anthony Pettis.

That superman punch form Pettis starched Wonderboy, and that should be a huge concern as Neal packs significantly more power than a fighter like Pettis. Wonderboy’s chin is questionable and that is not the desired feature to bring into a fight with Geoff Neal. Neal is a well rounded fighter, and while his power is recognized, it remains unsung.

His last fight saw him KO Mike Perry, who is quite far from a world better, but is known for his durability. Perry takes big damage in essentially every fight, but always gets through it, except against Neal. Wonderboy will want the fight to be at range throughout, and the key for Neal will be shortening that striking distance, and simply creating more exchanges.

While he probably won’t be the higher volume fighter, he won’t need to be. His power will be the determining factor of the fight, and Thompson will be unable to take it. I don’t believe Wonderboy’s chin will hold up for 25 minutes in the smaller octagon against Neal.

We will see a new true title contender emerge as Neal sleeps yet another opponent and continues to charge towards the belt. We do get added value on the +195 ITD line, and that is the method of attack on the betting line.

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