UFC Vegas 14 – Dos Anjos vs Felder Betting Picks and Predictions
13 November 2020
This card is not the greatest we will find in terms of star power, and is some cases quality of fights, but it brings betting opportunities just like every other card in the UFC.
The card actually got a mini face lift when Islan Makhachev withdrew from the main event and was replaced by Paul Felder. That face lift is in terms of draw, as Felder is a bigger draw, particularly state side, if not internationally as well. There is no reflection of the quality of fighter in that statement.
We do have a handful of nice value plays however, and we should be able to keep the profit train rolling. Let’s dive right in to the plays for this card.
This weeks picks. Keep reading for thoughts on the main event and full betting play analysis.
|Brendan Allen -115 vs Sean Strickland||Allen -115|
|Miranda Granger -155 vs Ashley Yoder||Yoder +135|
|Don’Tale Mayes vs Roque Martinez||Martinez ITD +255|
Brendan Allen -115 vs Sean Strickland
Fight is at a catchweight of 195 lbs and is +125 to end inside the distance.
This was a solid fight to put together with Brendan Allen losing his fight last week after Ian Heinisch withdrew. It is also a measuring stick fight for Sean Strickland, who is eager to compete in the octagon after returning from a motorcycle accident and has made the move up to middleweight.
While Strickland is the better striker of the two, I believe he should be an underdog in this particular matchup. Strickland was a better striker than Jack Marshman in his move up to middleweight debut, and he was able to press forward and dictate that fight and cruise to an easy decision win. He will not have the luxury of pressing forward against Allen, who is a fighter who dictates how his fights play out.
Allen has adequate power and has been addressing his striking and trying to catch it up with his high end grappling game. Even though Strickland will have a technical striking advantage, Allen will have no fear engaging and Allen likely holds the power edge and I believe he will be the larger fighter. Whether the striking does or does not pan out for Allen, he will push the fight to the floor and he will have a large advantage there.
Strickland has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers previously, but has never had to deal with someone with the likes of the ground and BJJ game of Allen. Strickland is not unaware on the floor, but Allen has submitted much better grapplers than Strickland, and Allen will get this fight to the floor by sheer force of will.
Both finish and decision victories are in play for Allen so the pickem flat line gives us a world of value while covering all avenues of victory. Take Allen to roll in a mislined fight.
Betting Play: Allen -115
Miranda Granger -155 vs Ashley Yoder
Fight is at 115 lbs and is +220 to end inside the distance.
I believe this is a mislined fight, and while the line should not be a truly wide one for either fighter, Ashley Yoder should easily be the favorite by my view. I do not expect a finish in this fight, but if there is one to be had, it would be a submission on the Yoder side.
From a pure boxing perspective, Miranda Granger would have an advantage. Part of that advantage however would come from a volume perspective and that will be mitigated with the nature of the southpaw vs orthodox matchup, as Yoder is a southpaw.
When considering there is far more to the striking than just boxing, Yoder will be able to use kicks in the striking and likely dictate range, and set up takedowns where she can put her ground game to work.
I would certainly say Yoder is the better wrestler and grappler in this fight, and that grappling advantage would carry over even if she were to find herself in bottom position. With the striking being quite close and the kicking game of Yoder likely being able to dictate range in combination with Yoder being the better grappler in a fight that almost certainly hits the floor, Yoder is absolutely an underdog to attack.
If you’re looking for a massive plus figure punt, Yoder via submission sits at +800, but the decision win is the more likely outcome and the best play is to take her flat.
Betting Play: Yoder +135
Don’Tale Mayes vs Roque Martinez
Fight is at heavyweight and is -215 to end inside the distance.
I have never been a big fan of the skill set of Don’Tale Mayes at heavyweight, and was quite skeptical of him ever notching an octagon win once he was signed. I have been proven correct thus far, as he has been outstruck and outgrappled in his two submission losses thus far, and I’m unsure there is a drop to make within the promotion for him to notch a win.
We will get that question answered on Saturday, as he takes on Roque Martinez who gets his first fight in the promotion that he has a chance to win after being steam rolled in a short notice spot against Alexandr Romanov.
Both fighters are strikers, but a big part of my knock on Mayes is his alarming lack of power. While he will put out more volume than Martinez, he certainly will be at a power disadvantage against Martinez. Mayes will be the much longer fighter with a significant reach advantage, and his task will be to keep Martinez from getting inside. I am unsure he will be able to do so and I don’t think he has the skill set to keep any fighter from pocket fighting.
While a decision win or attrition/exhaustion based late finish for Mayes is in the range of outcomes, that would bring us a painfully boring fight and I don’t think that is the most likely outcome. What is more likely is Martinez putting a power shot on the chin of Mayes and winning via KO.
It is difficult to project a decision win outcome for Martinez, so were certainly playing him ITD, and with the +255 figure on it, I think there’s gobs of value on that play and it is certainly the avenue of attack.
Betting Play: Martinez ITD +255
Other Fight Predicitons
👊 Rafael Dos Anjos via decision over Paul Felder
👊 Williams via KO over Abdul Razak Alhassan
👊 Julian Marquez via KO over Saperbak Saferov
👊 Cory McKenna via decision over Kay Hansen
👊 Anders via decision over Antonio Arroyo
👊 Alex Morono via KO over Rhys McKee
👊 Jose Quinonez via decision over Luis Smolka
👊 Randa Markos via decision over Kanako Murata
👊 Tony Gravely via decision over Geraldo de Freitas