UFC Vegas 14 – Dos Anjos vs Felder Betting Picks and Predictions

November 12, 2020

This card is not the greatest we will find in terms of star power, and is some cases quality of fights, but it brings betting opportunities just like every other card in the UFC.

The card actually got a mini face lift when Islan Makhachev withdrew from the main event and was replaced by Paul Felder. That face lift is in terms of draw, as Felder is a bigger draw, particularly state side, if not internationally as well. There is no reflection of the quality of fighter in that statement.

We do have a handful of nice value plays however, and we should be able to keep the profit train rolling. Let’s dive right in to the plays for this card.

This weeks picks. Keep reading for thoughts on the main event and full betting play analysis.

FightBetting Play
Brendan Allen -115 vs Sean StricklandAllen -115
Miranda Granger -155 vs Ashley YoderYoder +135
Don’Tale Mayes vs Roque MartinezMartinez ITD +255

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Brendan Allen -115 vs Sean Strickland

Betting Play: Allen -115

Fight is at a catchweight of 195 lbs and is +125 to end inside the distance.

This was a solid fight to put together with Brendan Allen losing his fight last week after Ian Heinisch withdrew. It is also a measuring stick fight for Sean Strickland, who is eager to compete in the octagon after returning from a motorcycle accident and has made the move up to middleweight.

While Strickland is the better striker of the two, I believe he should be an underdog in this particular matchup. Strickland was a better striker than Jack Marshman in his move up to middleweight debut, and he was able to press forward and dictate that fight and cruise to an easy decision win. He will not have the luxury of pressing forward against Allen, who is a fighter who dictates how his fights play out.

Allen has adequate power and has been addressing his striking and trying to catch it up with his high end grappling game. Even though Strickland will have a technical striking advantage, Allen will have no fear engaging and Allen likely holds the power edge and I believe he will be the larger fighter. Whether the striking does or does not pan out for Allen, he will push the fight to the floor and he will have a large advantage there.

Strickland has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers previously, but has never had to deal with someone with the likes of the ground and BJJ game of Allen. Strickland is not unaware on the floor, but Allen has submitted much better grapplers than Strickland, and Allen will get this fight to the floor by sheer force of will.

Both finish and decision victories are in play for Allen so the pickem flat line gives us a world of value while covering all avenues of victory. Take Allen to roll in a mislined fight.

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