UFC Vegas 13 – Santos vs Texeira Betting Picks and Predictions

November 4, 2020

After a main event that doubled as a farewell last week, this week’s high end banger will be a huge factor in shaping the future of the light heavyweight division. Thiago “Marreta” Santos returns after rehabbing from surgery to repair multiple knee tears sustained early on in his fight with Jon Jones.

The UFC is simply a better product when Marreta is fighting. He is one of the most dynamic and explosive fighters in the world and it will be a treat to see him back in the cage. This is as high end of a main event as we can get at light heavyweight, be sure to enjoy it. Let’s get to our betting picks and predictions.

This weeks picks. Keep reading for thoughts on the main event and full betting play analysis.

FightBetting Play
Thiago Santos -245 vs Glover TexeiraSantos ITD -150
Raoni Barcelos -370 vs Khalid TahaBarcleos ITD +110
Darren Elkins -235 vs Eduardo GaragorriElkins via sub +345
Anthony Birchak -120 vs Gustavo LopezLopez +120
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Thiago Santos -245 vs Glover Texeira

Betting Play: Santos ITD -150

Fight is at 205 lbs and is -375 to end inside the distance.

Mentioned in the intro was the return of Marreta Santos, and his matchup is with the resurgent Glover Texeira. After losing his title shot in 2014, the 41 year old Texeira was uneven for years, but has gone 4-0 since the start of 2019.

He has continued to use his high end grappling skill set to win these fights, and often has to weather a storm or even take a beating in the first round to get to the point of taking his fights down. On this four fight win streak, he was touched up heavily and often in the first round in two of the matchups, against Anthony Smith and Ion Cutelaba.

He was also briefly knocked out cold by a clinch elbow against middleweight Karl Roberson, but the referee did not notice because he was on a double leg against the fence at the time. Glover tends to let these more athletic and explosive fighters unload in the first round, as he says he’s learned to literally roll with the punches, but this matchup is unlike the previous ones in which he weathered the storm.

If Cutelaba and Smith were storms, Santos is a hurricane. Santos will remain one of the most prolific finishers on the roster and will bring added levels to the fight finishing strikes Texeira will have to wear if he is to compete in this fight. Santos was truly surging prior to the knee injury. He knocked out current champ Jan Blachowicz leading up to his title shot against Jones. He then lost a razor thin split decision to Jones, which I scored for Santos, despite blowing out his knee in the very first round.

Santos simply brings a level of dynamism no one else does, and if Texeira thinks he is going to eat the power coming from all limbs of Santos and survive the same way, I fear he will be extremely disappointed with Saturday’s result.

The question begs asked, how does Texeira turn the tide? Well, it would have to be with his grappling. He is the better grappler in this fight, despite Marreta having a black belt of his own. He would likely have to luck into some ring rust from Santos early on and then complete multiple takedowns as I believe Marreta would have the gas tank to get up multiple times, if and when taken down.

He essentially will have to drag the fight into the deepest of waters, all while dodging the nuclear bombs being hurled at him. It seems quite unlikely all these things go his way, and despite a high end skill set, we have likely seen Glover level up one too many times and see his win streak obliterated.

Just knowing the amount of damage Glover has survived in his recent fights, I can’t look in any direction but the next chapter, with that damage coming from Santos, being the one he is unable to survive. Look for Santos to knock Glover out early on and reclaim his top spot in the light heavyweight rankings.

With the added value on the ITD line of -150, that is our avenue of attack. On another note, if and when Santos wins this fight convincingly, it would be criminal to give the next title shot to anyone but him.

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