UFC Long Island Picks & Promos
July 14, 2022
✅ The grappling advantage for Ortega cannot be understated. He will take rounds with a single takedown and keep Rodriguez more hesitant throughout.
✅ Ortega's durability cannot be understated and we have little worry of a flash finish to torpedo this bet.
✅ Sumudaerji has shown an ability to stuff takedowns and keep fights where he wants them to take place.
✅ Sumudaerji will be able to match the speed and volume of Schnell while being the higher leveled striker with a real power advantage.
✅ Jacoby has shown the durability to withstand any of the power of Jung that gets through.
✅ Jacoby is unbeaten in seven fights since his return to the promotion, two of which were wagers for us.
UFC Long Island is a high end Fight Night Card on the heels of a putrid one at the Apex last week. . The card will be streaming live on ESPN+ as always, but this is also a nationally televised card. This event will air live on ABC network as well. The card takes place on Long Island New York.
The 12 fight card takes place on Saturday, July 16th, 2022. The first fighters will make the walk to the octagon at 11AM EST.
The card features a main event in the featherweight division and does have championship implications. Brian Ortega will look to prove he deserves a third crack at the title after falling short twice thus far. He will take on Yair Rodriguez who try to prove he belongs among the division's elites. The co-main event is a clash between Amanda Lemos and Michelle Waterson in the women's strawweight division. Unless Lemos wins in massively impressive fashion, there are little title implications with this fight.
As always, check out all of our UFC Picks.
We will have four bets for UFC Long Island. All four of them are eligible for the promo above from Caesars that will net you a completely risk free bet for up to $1500.
✅ Pick - Brian Ortega -170 over Yair Rodriguez
Yair Rodriguez is a fighter that has ascended and performed just well enough to continue drawing premier matchups in the division. He has lost to Max Holloway and pulled off a Hail Mary with one second left in a five round fight against the Korean Zombie, in a fight he was losing. He now takes on Brian Ortega who absolutely took apart the Korean Zombie. Rodriguez will struggle mightily with Ortega. Ortega is the more physically imposing fighter. He will be advancing and have a power edge in the standup. Ortega is also a world class grappler that will put rounds in the bag with any takedown. We also know Ortega is insanely durable, so there is little worry from a flash KO. Take the big value on Ortega.
✅ Pick - Sumudaerji ITD +100 over Matt Schnell
Sumudaerji is the more sophisticated and dangerous striker in this matchup. He will be able to match the quickness and length of Schnell, but will do so with a huge power edge. Schnell is the better grappler, but will be unlikely to be able to land any takedowns. Sumudaerji's power is going to own this fight, and I think a finish is highly probable. That could be a fresh out of the gate starching or a progressive build up of damage. In any event, Sumudaerji is going to put it on Schnell as the ascending fighter.
✅ Pick - Shane Burgos -175 over Charles Jourdain
Jourdain is getting a massive step up in competition, and the betting line simply does not reflect it. Three of four wins Jourdain has notched have come against fighters cut from the promotion. Now he draws Shane Burgos, who has only lost to truly high end fighters at featherweight. Burgos volume cannot be understated and he will land plenty on Jourdain. This is likely fight of the night, with Burgos getting his hand raised.
✅ Pick - Dustin Jacoby -125 over Da Un Jung
Dustin Jacoby is the far more sophisticated striker with his kickboxing background. He is highly durable and has not lost in seven fights since his return to the UFC. He has fought the better level of competition and will only have to be aware of the one shot power of Jung in this fight. Do not be fooled by Jacoby's most recent fight. He fought through knee injuries and gutted out a win and we will be back to the normal version in this fight. We have cashed twice on Jacoby since his UFC return, and this will be the third.