UFC 256 Betting Plays and Predictions

December 9, 2020

After a disappointment both before and after on the last pay per view card, the promotion got this one right. The undercard is very good and the whole pay per view line up is great. It will be a joy to watch, and we have 10 of 11 fights projected by oddsmakers to end inside the distance. We also have no shortage of UFC Picks this week. Let’s dive right into them, first in video and then in text below.

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UFC 256 Preview Figueiredo vs Moreno

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Deiveson Figueiredo -325 vs Brandon Moreno

Betting Play: Figueiredo ITD -160

Fight is five rounds at 125 bs and is -265 to end inside the distance.
For the flyweight championship.

We get to see both of these fighters for the second time in a month. Figueiredo defended his belt quickly against Alex Perez and is the best finisher we have ever seen at flyweight. His striking is truly thunder and now we have seen his grappling catch up and offer an equal threat to that of his striking.

With two guillotine wins from guard in his last four fights against seasoned grapplers, it is safe to say his squeeze is absolutely next level. Brandon Moreno is a very tough and now rounded challenger, who has seen his striking catch up with his high end grappling game.

Moreno is the longer fighter, but his style is not one that projects to match up well against the champ. Moreno likes to push forward in the striking, and that will set him up to eat counter bombs that Figueiredo throws so well. Moreno will need next level chin to survive.

In order to do so, he will need to get some early takedowns while avoiding submission attempts, which is a tough ask. Never mind the submissions, it is far from a sure thing he will be able to score any takedowns on a fresh Figueiredo.

If he is able to implement that game plan and simply control and wear on the champ and drag him to deep water, with eyes on a decision win. While that is the game plan, I deem it unlikely and Figueiredo is just so dangerous and such a complete and elite finisher, we have to project him to win every fight he enters ITD until further notice. The -160 ITD line is quite attractive and is our avenue of attack in this fight. And still.

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