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Tsitsipas vs Rublev – ATP Rotterdam Betting Picks

05 March 2021

Jay Sanin Tennis Picks & Predictions at US sportsbonus

Tsitsipas vs Rublev is the more appealing semifinal during the ATP Rotterdam event. This week, Tsitsipas and Rublev have both done a nice job of bouncing back from straight set losses to Daniil Medvedev in the Australian. Here, they look to book their place in their first singles final of the 2021 campaign. In today’s tennis picks, we look at Tsitsipas vs Rublev and break down what should be an evenly matched contest.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev

The Pick: Tsitsipas -1.5 games (-112) over Rublev

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Stefanos Tsitsipas has had anything but an easy road to this semifinal. He got the better of Egor Gerasimov in straight sets to start his tournament. Since then, he has been taken to three sets in wins over Hubert Hurkacz and Karen Khachanov. And while Tsitsipas has got the better of everyone in his path to get to this match, he has really had to grind, and it will be interesting to see how he follows up two tough matches.

The key for Tsitsipas is going to be how well he is serving. The Greek player barely got half of his first serves into play against Khachanov. And he won just over half of his second serve points, as the slow surface in Rotterdam makes it difficult to come out on top in rallies consistently. If he can serve more like he did against Hurkacz, Tsitsipas may be able to avoid another three set match.

Andrey Rublev was cruising along through two matches in Rotterdam. He made quick work of Marcos Giron and Andy Murray in rounds one and two. But Rublev ended up in a surprisingly tough match against Jeremy Chardy in the quarterfinals. Rublev won the first set in a tiebreak, dropped the second in a tiebreak, then pulled away once and for all in the final set.

For Rublev, the question is whether or not he can get his first serve in play enough to stay out of trouble on serve. He is consistently getting under 60% of his first serves in play, and struggled to win half of his second serve points against Chardy en route to being broken four times. If he can’t improve that, he will routinely find himself in harm’s way while serving, with Tsitsipas being a player who is more than capable of breaking him.

Tsitsipas vs Rublev have played seven times in their careers, with Tsitsipas winning four of those matchups. Their last matchup was at the 2020 ATP Finals, where Tsitsipas generated nine break points compared to just one for Rublev. Tsitsipas has earned more break chances in the bulk of the matches between these two players, something that is likely to continue in this semifinal showdown.

This match should come down to a few key points, and Stefanos Tsitsipas has proven that he is more capable of winning those points than Rublev as of late. With more opportunities to break serve likely to come his way, Tsitsipas should be able to get ahead of the tight spread in this match to cover the games line. Expect the Greek number one to move to 10-1 on the season thus far with a victory here.

The Pick: Tsitsipas -1.5 games (-112) over Rublev

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Tennis Betting FAQ

Why are so many matches going three sets in Rotterdam?

The fact that it is so difficult to hit the ball through the court here has made it harder for players to win in straight sets. Players are essentially relying on one another to hit errors to end points in a lot of cases, which can lead to big swings in momentum depending on which player is playing cleaner tennis at a given moment.

What is the biggest key to this match?

The key to this match will be the serve of Andrey Rublev. If Rublev can’t get his first serve in consistently, he could be in for a long day. Tsitsipas vs Rublev will depend largely on whether or not Rublev can get free points and avoid getting into a hitting contest with a player in Tsitsipas who can outhit just about anyone on tour.

Who will win Coric vs Fucsovics?

Coric vs Fucsovics is going to be an extremely entertaining match, one which could go either way as well. Coric and Fucsovics have both looked strong so far, and both have looked poised in tiebreaks and other big moments in Rotterdam. Coric is the slight favorite for the match, but it is going to be very difficult for whoever comes out on top.


Tennis Picks at USsportsbonus.com

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