Tsitsipas vs Medvedev Prediction: French Open Betting Picks

June 7, 2021

Tsitsipas vs Medvedev is the final men’s match of the day on Tuesday at the French Open. With a spot in the semifinals on the line, both of these top-five players in the world will look to pick up a very significant victory here. In this round of tennis picks, we break down Medvedev vs Tsitsipas, which features some interesting surface and history-related considerations.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev Betting Pick

Tsitsipas vs Medvedev Pick: Tsitsipas -3.5 games (-120)

Stefanos Tsitsipas has played 13 sets at this year’s French Open and has won 12 of them, getting through his four matches thus far without much damage. He beat Jeremy Chardy and Pedro Martinez in the first two rounds to start the tournament. Then, after beating John Isner in four sets, Tsitsipas got through Pablo Carreno-Busta in straight sets to make it to the quarterfinal round.

The performance of Tsitsipas on clay this season has been the best on tour, even better than Rafael Nadal to this point. The Greek has won 20 matches on clay and has lost just three times on the surface. Those three losses came to Nadal, Novak Djokovic and clay court specialist Casper Ruud. Against a player in Medvedev who does not typically value the clay season, Tsitsipas has a sizable advantage.

Daniil Medvedev has been a pleasant surprise during this French Open, by virtue of him appearing engaged and interested in playing well at the tournament. Medvedev, like Tsitsipas, has dropped just one set through his first four matches at Roland-Garros. The Russian got a straight set win over Alexander Bublik, beat Tommy Paul in four sets, then beat Reilly Opelka and Cristian Garin in straight sets to get here.

The question for Medvedev is whether his success this week will translate to a match against one of the best clay court players in the world. Tsitsipas has a 10% advantage in terms of service games held on clay over the last year, and nearly a 3% difference in break rate over Medvedev over the same time period. Even with Medvedev playing better this past week, that is a lot for the Russian to overcome.

Tsitsipas vs Medvedev has been played seven times in the past, with Medvedev winning an impressive six of those seven matchups. Medvedev won the lone match between these two on clay, beating Tsitsipas during the 2019 Monte Carlo Masters. In that match, Tsitsipas won just 38% of his second serve points.

In this match, the history of Medvedev beating Tsitsipas has driven the games line down somewhat, as the Russian has proven that he can hang with the Greek. But Tsitsipas’ dominance on clay should have him as a bigger favorite in this match against a player who hasn’t beaten anyone great during this French Open. Expect Tsitsipas to get his nose in front early and frustrate Medvedev into falling apart late.

Tsitsipas vs Medvedev Pick: Tsitsipas -3.5 games (-120)

French Open Betting FAQ

What happened to Musetti against Djokovic?

Musetti had to retire against Djokovic due to an injury in the fifth set, but he collapsed in that match as soon as he took a two-set lead. Djokovic just shut down everything that Musetti tried to do from that point on and the results were not pretty for the Italian teen.

What are the latest French Open odds?

The latest French Open odds have Rafael Nadal in the neighborhood of -175 to win the title. Djokovic and Tsitsipas are in the neighborhood of 5/1 odds each and are the only other players with a single digit number to win the 2021 French Open.

Who will win Zverev vs Davidovich-Fokina?

Alexander Zverev is a huge favorite to beat Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina, as the German has won all five sets that these two have played against each other in the past. But they have never played on clay before, and the Spaniard has proven that he is more than capable of grinding out victories on this surface. Zverev should win, but it could be close.

Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is a sports writer and broadcaster from Albany, NY. He has covered sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013.