Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Kansas State Wildcats Betting Picks and Predictions
03 October 2020
|Date:||Saturday, October 3rd|
|Time:||3:30 PM ET|
|Venue:||Bill Snyder Stadium|
|Spread:||Kansas State -2.5|
The 1-1 Texas Tech Red Raiders will go on the road Saturday to face off with the 1-1 Kansas State Wildcats at 3:30 PM ET in Bill Snyder Stadium. The Wildcats come in as slight two-point favorites, which simply comes down to home-field advantage. Both teams have been very up and down through two weeks, and the loser will have a tough hole to dig out of. This is an extremely even game and one I’m excited to watch. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who has a better chance to cover the spread.
When the Texas Tech Red Raiders Have The Ball
This has already been a very bizarre season for the Texas Tech Red Raiders through just two weeks. They opened things up with a 35-33 win over Houston Baptist before giving the Texas Longhorns a tough test and forcing the game into overtime. The Longhorns escaped with the victory, but the Red Raiders showed they have the tools and skill to keep it close with anyone in College Football.
The offense is led by Alan Bowman, who’s a phenomenal orchestrator. He’s very experienced in this system and looks to be born for it when you watch him. Through two games, Bowman has thrown for 755 yards, seven touchdowns, and four interceptions. If he can get those picks down, he’ll be one of the top passers in the country.
While the offense loves to throw the ball, they can’t help but give SaRodorick Thompson the rock. The stud halfback has run for 222 yards and four scores on just 38 carries. He’s the workhorse of this squad, which you rarely see in today’s college football game. He will be a massive part of the game plan against a Kansas State defense that can struggle against the run.
When Bowman drops back to throw the ball, he’s been extremely balanced. It’s another thing that’s rare in CFB as you typically have one option that gets most of the attention. KeSean Carter is your technical WR1 and he’s caught 13 balls for 163 yards and three scores. You then have Erik Ezukanma and TJ Vasher, who have combined for 310 yards and four scores. Dalton Rigdon is a complimentary piece to the offense, but the TE certainly draws attention in the RZ and makes things a lot easier on everyone else.
If Texas Tech wants to win this game, they have to take care of the ball. Oklahoma gave Kansas State too many easy opportunities and their offense is built to convert while playing it safe. Look for Texas Tech to run the ball more than we’re used to in this one. However, they’ll still sling it around like crazy is Kansas State has any sense of stacking the box.
When The Kansas State Wildcats Have The Ball
After losing to Arkansas State in week one, the Kansas State Wildcats shocked the College Football world for back-to-back seasons by upsetting the Oklahoma Sooners 38-35. The Sooners led for the entire game before the Wildcats won the 4th quarter 17-0. The defense was massive, forcing three interceptions from Rattler and four total turnovers. The Wildcats didn’t turn it over once and took advantage of the constant elite field position. They didn’t shoot themselves in the foot and managed to pull out an incredible victory.
The question is whether or not they come out flat after such a huge win. QB Skylar Thompson is the heart and soul of the offense and he single-handedly lifted them to the win over Oklahoma with three rushing TD’s on top of 334 yards and a score through the air.
Freshman halfback Deuce Vaughn has emerged on the scene and it’s no surprise as he was their biggest pickup in quite some time. Against Oklahoma, he ran for 45 yards and a touchdown on just eight carries. He then caught four balls for another 129 yards. Vaughn is a game-changer and will only see more touches this week.
This team really doesn’t have much at receiver, which is why you’ll see Vaughn and TE Briley Moore peppered with targets. DB turned WR Justin Gardner is explosive and has the upside to turn into a legitimate weapon. Chabastin Taylor is their best bet on the outside right now, but he’s been targeted just five times through two games. If Kansas State wants to rebound with another victory, they’ll need to slow down the Texas Tech passing game. They did so effectively against Oklahoma, so the potential is there if they stay disciplined.
These are two very streaky teams and neither is predictable from a betting standpoint. With that being said, this Kansas State team looked phenomenal against Oklahoma on both sides of the ball. While Texas Tech made it close with Texas, they still looked disastrous on defense and turned the ball over a few times.
Kansas State is more careful with the ball and they have home-field advantage, no matter how small that might be in 2020. Skylar Thompson is the best player on the field and the addition of Deuce Vaughn is a huge one. Give me the Wildcats Money Line, as I have no interest in losing by a single point.
The Pick: Kansas State ML +135
This is a high number and rightfully so as the two offenses in this one move the ball fast and efficiently. Neither defense forces many turnovers and both coaching staffs are comfortable in shootouts. With that being said, this number is elevated due to last week.
Both teams had huge upset performances and the public is obviously excited. It’s going to be an extremely close and nerve-wracking under to bet, but it’s the right call to make. Both teams will look to get it going on the ground and I wouldn’t be surprised if it stays under 60 completely.
The Pick: Over 63.5
Final Score Prediction: Kansas State 28, Texas Tech 27