Texas Longhorns vs. Colorado Buffaloes Valero Betting Picks

December 26, 2020

Date:Tuesday, December 29th
Time:9:00 PM ET
Network:ESPN
Venue:Alamodome
Spread:Texas -9.5
O/U:63.5

The 6-3 Texas Longhorns will meet up with the 4-1 Colorado Buffaloes in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Tuesday night at 9:00 PM ET. The Longhorns come into the matchup as 9.5-point favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points on the board with a 63.5 over/under. You can tune into the game on ESPN. It was a disappointing season for Texas that they will look to cap off with a bowl victory. For Colorado, the season is still young and a win over Texas would cap off the short season beautifully. Let’s dive into how this game will go and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of our CFB Picks and Predictions as we will have every single bowl game covered.

Trends

  • Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Buffaloes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Under is 5-0 in Longhorns last 5 bowl games.
  • Under is 7-1 in Buffaloes last 8 neutral site games.

When The Texas Longhorns Have The Ball

The Longhorns were seemingly dismissed after losing two of their first four games of the season to Oklahoma and TCU. Since, they’ve won all but one game with quality victories over sixth-ranked Oklahoma State and West Virginia. They were downed by Iowa State just two weeks ago in a game that was close throughout. Texas has all the firepower to stay with any team in the country, but they aren’t very disciplined and seem to shoot themselves in the foot as much as any team. 

It starts with QB Sam Ehlinger, who’s had a quiet year after getting tons of hype in each of the last two. He’s thrown it for 2,406 yards with 25 touchdowns and five picks on top of 108 rushing yards and eight more scores. The problem isn’t at the QB position. When he drops back, Brennan Eagles and Joshua Moore are his go-to guys. Moore leads the bunch with seven receiving TD’s while Eagles leads with 469 yards and 28 catches. 

At running back, Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson split time. Robinson has been better at 6.8 yards per carry, but Johnson leads the pair with five touchdowns. The Longhorns don’t run the ball a ton, but do have a pair of solid backs when they do. This Texas team must step up defensively if they want to win by 10 points and in turn cover the spread.

When The Colorado Buffaloes Have The Ball

The Buffaloes only played five games this season, winning four and losing one to a quality Utah Utes team. They belong in this bowl game and matchup well with a Texas team that has struggled defensively. Colorado has put up 35+ points twice already and they have the firepower to stay with Texas. This is a run-first team that is carried by the legs of HB Jarek Broussard, who’s up to 813 yards rushing in just five games. 

QB Sam Noyer isn’t great, but he’s a dual-threat guy that can move the chains with efficiency when throwing it well. He’s rushed for 191 yards and five scores on top of 1,000 passing yards. Noyer has just six touchdowns and five interceptions, so he must do a better job of taking care of the football. Texas will be hunting for turnovers and it will give Colorado an opportunity to put up easy points. 

Spread Prediction

The Pick: Colorado +9.5

Texas is clearly the better overall team in this matchup, but I’m not sure how much it will matter. The Longhorns don’t have much to play for and Colorado is just entering their prime of the season. Teams are typically at their best around game five to six, which is exactly what this is for Colorado. They’re the less-injured team and the defenses are similar. I’m a big fan of Colorado keeping this game close and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they upset the Longhorns. It all comes down to Noyer and how well he can throw it downfield. 

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Total Prediction

The Pick: Under 63.5
Final Score Prediction: Texas 31, Colorado 28

This is a very tough number and I would much rather bet this game against the spread. I have a sneaky suspicion we see this game right around 60 points. I’ll lean under, but barely. Neither defense nor offense is considered prolific and both defenses will be looking to play contain. For Texas, they have struggled against the pass. Colorado has been worse against the pass as well, but also just got rushed on for 200+ yards. The under is the safe bet to make here, though I would rather ignore it altogether and side with Colorado ATS.

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