Sinner vs Hurkacz – ATP Miami Final Betting Picks

Sinner vs Hurkacz is the unexpected final in the ATP Miami Masters 1000 event. Both players have fought through the loaded field in South Florida to get to this point. The question now is which player will hoist their first Masters 1000 trophy as a reward for their efforts. In this round of tennis picks, we look at the Miami Masters final and let you know what the best bet is for this contest.

Jannik Sinner has continued his meteoric rise on tour with this run to the final in Miami. He earned his first Masters 1000 final appearance with a win in the semifinal over Roberto Bautista-Agut in three sets. That victory saw Sinner fall behind by dropping the first set, but he rebounded nicely in the final two sets to make it to this Floridian final.

The difference between Sinner in the first set and the final two sets was his ability to finish points. Sinner was the more powerful hitter against Bautista-Agut, but struggled to harness that power in long rallies in set one. During the remainder of the match, the Italian did a nice job of eliminating some of his mistakes without sacrificing too much of the power that sets him apart on the forehand side.

Hubert Hurkacz shocked a lot of people when he sent Andrey Rublev packing in the semifinals. Hurkacz didn’t just beat Rublev, but knocked him out in straight sets, earning his first appearance in a Masters 1000 final himself. After also taking out Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to this final, Hurkacz has proven to be the giant killer of the Miami Masters.

The way that Hurkacz attacked the second serve of Rublev was notable heading into this match with Sinner. Hurkacz forced Rublev into a miserable day on his second serve, with the Russian winning just nine of his 24 second serve points. Against an opponent like Sinner who doesn’t generate as many free service points as other players Hurkacz has faced recently, a similar performance could bring Hurkacz his first Masters 1000 title.

Sinner vs Hurkacz is uncharted territory for both players, and not just because it is their first time in a final of this magnitude. These two have never played against one another, adding an additional layer of intrigue to a match with already high stakes. For both players, the question will be how consistent they can be in spite of the nerves that will likely be a factor in the tense moments of this match.

We are playing Sinner vs Hurkacz to go to a third set regardless of who wins the match. Hurkacz has seen two of his last three matches go to a deciding set, while Sinner has had half of his previous four matches do the same. And with both players breaking new ground in their careers here, sustaining a high enough level to win this match in straight sets seems like too much to ask. The plus price in the over 2.5 sets market is the way to go.