Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Michel Prazeres Prediction

June 24, 2021

Shavkat Rakhmonov -280 vs Michel Prazeres

Fight is at 170 lbs and is -125 to end inside the distance. 

Betting Pick: Rakhmonov -280

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✅ Much like the Tim Means vs Nicholas Dalby fight, this fight’s key will be the underdog being exposed and unable to keep up. That would put Michel Prazeres on the shaky end of this fight. Prazeres is coming off a two year USADA ban and this fight takes place a month shy of his fortieth birthday. Prazeres looked like he was washed in his last fight in 2019, where he was dominated by since cut Ismail Naurdiev. I again have difficulty finding an area of advantage of Prazeres. The only path I see is for him to somehow luck into being on top on the floor and have control for multiple rounds. I don’t believe he can take his opponent down in this matchup, so that path would require multiple rounds of lucking into top position. He will be at a massive disadvantage in the standup. He will be giving up 7” of height, 10” of reach and 13 years of youth. This fight sets up even worse for Prazeres than the one he was dominated in prior to his suspension. 

✅ Shavkat Rakhmonov should have a very easy night’s work. He will own the striking and I believe him to be a far better wrestler. Prazeres does have some slick submissions early in fights, so enjoying that striking advantage is the easiest path for Rakhmonov. I believe him to be the better wrestler, so he should be able to dictate where the fight takes place. Prazeres is a fighter that will gas, so we may see Rakhmonov mix it up later in the fight. In any event, Prazeres will be ran through if this fight makes it to the second half. Rakhmonov won his UFC debut with a first round finish, and this fight sets up as a much easier one. Laying less than 3 to 1 on him feels like a gift. 

✅ This was something of a simple fight to break down. All signs point to the Rakhmonov side in a huge way, and the line is shorter than what it needs to be. I do believe a finish win is more likely than a decision win, but a decision is likely enough to keep the safer flat line as the avenue of attack.

Betting Pick: Rakhmonov -280

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TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.