SeungWoo Choi vs Julian Erosa Prediction

June 17, 2021

SeungWoo Choi -145 vs Julian Erosa

Fight is at 145 lbs and is +100 to end inside the distance. 

Betting Pick: Choi ITD +255

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✅ SeungWoo Choi is not remotely a household name, but the man is a very good striker. His opponents have recognized that and have had little in interest in striking with him if not forced to. Choi has had some issues with being taken down but he has absolutely made big improvements in that department. This will likely be Julian Erosa’s only hope later in the fight, if it gets that far, but more on that in a second. Choi is simply a tighter striker than Erosa. He keeps the strikes tight and on the center line, and that will progressively become a bigger and bigger problem for Erosa. Choi will increasingly pour on the damage as the fight progresses, and it will be difficult for Erosa to survive the ever accumulating damage. 

✅ Erosa will come out hard and fast, as evidenced by his KO of Nate Landwehr in under a minute in his most recent fight. He will hunt for a KO early, but this will likely backfire as he will likely be the one taking the damage if he is to crash forward. Once both fighters have settled into the fight, Erosa will learn the stand up is not his friend in this particular matchup. He will look to wrestle, and probably secure at least one takedown. The issue will be that Choi has truly improved at returning to his feet. I don’t believe Erosa will be able to have the control needed to counteract the striking disadvantage. Erosa has four losses in the UFC, three of which to strikers. In all three occurrences, the method of loss was via KO, and that streak will continue on Saturday. 

✅ The flat line on Choi is a friendly one, but the real value is on the ITD line. The -145 favorite shifts to +255 on the ITD line, and that figure is too juicy for me to ignore. It may take into the second half of the fight for Choi to finish the job, but I don’t believe he allows for the judge’s scorecards to be involved with his win on Saturday. 

Betting Pick: Choi ITD +255

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TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.