Sean Strickland vs Krzysztof Jotko Predictions

April 29, 2021

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10:00 PM ET May 1
UFC Vegas 25 - Sean Strickland vs Krzysztof Jotko
Strickland
-260
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Sean Strickland -260 vs Krzysztof Jotko

Betting Play: Strickland -260

Fight is at 185 lbs and is +110 to end inside the distance. 

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✅ This is a puzzling fight for me, as Sean Strickland dismantled a superior fighter to Krzysztof Jotko in his previous fight. The step down in competition was likely Strickland taking whatever fight is offered, as he has said he is eager to fight and fight often. Strickland has an advantage of over Jotko in essentially every facet of MMA. 

✅ Jotko came to the UFC in 2013 with some level of hype. He does have a number of wins in the promotion, but his fights have generally been the easiest the promotion has to offer. When he did get some tougher fights in 2017 and 2018, he went on a three fight skid while being finished twice. Of his nine UFC wins, eight have come by way of decision. He is simply not a finisher and comes in to try to outpoint his opponents. 

✅ I have questions on Jotko’s durability and I believe him trying to strike with Strickland will end poorly. Even if his chin holds up, Strickland will look far better to the judges and will absolutely be the better and far more damaging striker. Jotko may be made to be a wrestler as this fight wears on, as it will become apparent Strickland outclasses him in the striking. While he may earn a takedown or two, we are not talking about a true wrestler here that can force that game plan into being the determining factor of the fight. 

✅ While I think a finish for Strickland is quite possible, if not probable, Jotko has a way of hanging on and surviving to get to the scorecards. The +175 ITD line for Strickland is certainly value laden enough to play, we will stick with the flat line and lay the -260 on Strickland in this UFC Vegas 25 fight. 

Betting Pick: Strickland -260

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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.