• Fri
    May 14
  • 2:00 am
    PHX
    POR
    -227
    190
  • 12:00 am
    CHI
    TOR
    -500
    375
  • 12:00 am
    MIN
    DEN
    195
    -250
  • 12:00 am
    MEM
    SAC
    -303
    240
  • Thu
    May 13
  • 11:30 pm
    NYK
    SAS
    -200
    170
  • 11:30 pm
    MIA
    PHI
    100
    -120
  • 11:30 pm
    ATL
    ORL
    -1111
    700
  • 11:00 pm
    IND
    MIL
    310
    -400
  • 11:00 pm
    CHA
    LAC
    260
    -345
  • FINAL
    LAL
    HOU
    -1250
    750
  • FINAL
    UTA
    POR
    -154
    130
  • FINAL
    COL
    LAK
    -333
    265
  • FINAL
    SJS
    VGK
    157
    -196
  • FINAL
    STL
    MIN
    -110
    -110
  • FINAL
    DAL
    NOP
    -500
    375
  • FINAL
    SEN
    TOR
    180
    -222
  • FINAL
    BKN
    SAS
    -189
    155
  • FINAL
    CLE
    BOS
    400
    -556
  • Wed
    May 12
  • FINAL
    ATL
    WAS
    -303
    230
  • FINAL
    MTL
    EDM
    -112
    -108
  • FINAL
    GSW
    PHX
    170
    -200
  • FINAL
    SAC
    OKC
    -556
    400
  • FINAL
    LAL
    NYK
    -227
    190

Sean Strickland vs Krzysztof Jotko Predictions

April 29, 2021

UFC
clock
10:00 PM ET May 1
UFC Vegas 25 - Sean Strickland vs Krzysztof Jotko
Strickland
-260
Bet
TJ
TJ

Sean Strickland -260 vs Krzysztof Jotko

Betting Play: Strickland -260

Fight is at 185 lbs and is +110 to end inside the distance. 

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✅ This is a puzzling fight for me, as Sean Strickland dismantled a superior fighter to Krzysztof Jotko in his previous fight. The step down in competition was likely Strickland taking whatever fight is offered, as he has said he is eager to fight and fight often. Strickland has an advantage of over Jotko in essentially every facet of MMA. 

✅ Jotko came to the UFC in 2013 with some level of hype. He does have a number of wins in the promotion, but his fights have generally been the easiest the promotion has to offer. When he did get some tougher fights in 2017 and 2018, he went on a three fight skid while being finished twice. Of his nine UFC wins, eight have come by way of decision. He is simply not a finisher and comes in to try to outpoint his opponents. 

✅ I have questions on Jotko’s durability and I believe him trying to strike with Strickland will end poorly. Even if his chin holds up, Strickland will look far better to the judges and will absolutely be the better and far more damaging striker. Jotko may be made to be a wrestler as this fight wears on, as it will become apparent Strickland outclasses him in the striking. While he may earn a takedown or two, we are not talking about a true wrestler here that can force that game plan into being the determining factor of the fight. 

✅ While I think a finish for Strickland is quite possible, if not probable, Jotko has a way of hanging on and surviving to get to the scorecards. The +175 ITD line for Strickland is certainly value laden enough to play, we will stick with the flat line and lay the -260 on Strickland in this UFC Vegas 25 fight. 

Betting Pick: Strickland -260

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TJ
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.