Saturday NBA Expert Picks Against The Spread

December 6, 2019

New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks

2:05PM EST

Opening Line: Mavericks -8 and 233
Current Line: Mavericks -9 and 233

This is a rematch from Tuesday night in a game we bet and went 1-1 in. Here’s the thoughts from Tuesday night and the result:

Opening Line: Mavericks -3.5 and 233.5

Current Line: Mavericks -3.5 and 233.5

I perk up a little bit when I see the Mavs matched up with one of the worst teams in the league in both points allowed on average and defensive efficiency. The Mavericks lead the league in offensive efficiency and are at the top of the league in points scored per game. They should be able to absolutely score at will, and at a quick pace as the Pels do their normal up tempo thing. That should work out as Dallas is on the lower end of mediocre in defensive efficiency as well and I just don’t think they could have ever set this total high enough. The last up tempo spot like this for the Mavs was against Houston, and that game got to 260 in a 14 point Mavs win. The Pels are quite obviously a much lower level than Houston, but play with similar pace, and a similar or better outcome for the Mavs is quite likely. We have plays on both the Mavs and the over, or parlayed if you’re feeling frisky.

Tuesday Review

The Mavericks rolled on the back of Luka Doncic dropping 33-18-5 in just three quarters of action. The Pels just couldn’t keep up in the second half and it ultimately lead to a non competitive fourth quarter, sinking the under.”

Nothing has changed since Tuesday and the Pels even played a 271 point game since then. They will be hard pressed to have a worse offensive performance than they did on Tuesday and we have the exact same duo of plays today as we did then.


Betting Picks: Mavericks -9 Over 233
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Indiana Pacers 14-8 at New York Knicks 4-18

7:35PM EST

Opening Line: Pacers -6.5 and 209.5
Current Line: Pacers -6.5 and 207.5

The ineptitude and lack of effort from the Knicks has boiled over and lead to our first coaching change of the season. Head coach David Fizdale was relieved of his duties on Friday in a move that changes nothing for the direction of the franchise nor does it create any motivation for the players. Mike Miller has been elevated to interim coach and will be just the next to go in a culture that is incapable of winning. The Knicks are currently on an eight game losing streak and it will be nine come Sunday morning. The Knicks haven’t scored more than 104 points in any game on this losing streak and that will continue as defensively stout Indiana will beat on them in a slow placed game.

Friday Review

The Lakers rolled, and I mean rolled to an easy win. They stretched a second quarter lead out to 15 at half and ultimately won by 23 laying 3.5. The Blazers just had no answer for the stars as Davis and Lebron combined for 70 points on 44 FGA in the route.

  • ✅Lakers -3.5

The win brings us to 28-18 on the season.

TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday.


Betting Pick: Pacers -6.5
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TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.