San Diego State Aztecs vs. BYU Cougars Betting Picks

The 4-3 San Diego State Aztecs will go on the road Saturday night to face off with the 9-1 BYU Cougars at 10:00 PM ET in LaVell Edwards Stadium. The Cougars come in as 17.5-point home favorites and we’re looking at a defensive affair with a 47 over/under. You can watch the game on ESPN2. Let’s dive into who will win this game and how it will go down. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAF Picks and Predictions for this upcoming weekend.

• Aztecs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 6-0-1 in Aztecs last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

It’s been an up and down season for the Aztecs, never winning or losing more than two straight. They’re coming off a 29-17 win over the Colorado State Rams in a game that was competitive throughout. The Aztecs run it nearly twice as often as they pass it, and they’re led by senior HB Greg Bell. He’s up to 569 yards and six touchdowns on the season with another touchdown through the air. He has some potent backups as well with Chance Bell and Jordan Byrd both averaging five-plus yards per carry.

QB Carson Baker has only completed 55% of his passes for 617 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. He has to be a lot better against a BYU team that’s going to force SDSU to play catch up. Jesse Matthews, Kobe Smith, and Daniel Bellinger are the top options on the outside and they could have great days as SDSU will be passing more than ever.

The Cougars’ perfect season ended a week ago after the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers beat them 22-17 in a thriller. It was a phenomenal game from start to finish but the Cougars failed to find their rhythm throughout. Fortunately for BYU, they go right back to a non-elite defense that they will be able to have some fun against. San Diego State is talented defensively, but they’re no match for what sophomore QB Zach Wilson has to offer. He’s been one of the best players in the country with 2,964 yards, 27 touchdowns, and three interceptions on top of 246 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.

Wilson is phenomenal, but he also has some talented weapons surrounding him. Tyler Allgeier (957 yards, 12 TD) and Lopini Kotoa (333 yards, 5 TD) man a backfield that’s tough to stop when Wilson is throwing it for 400+ regularly and all five blockers are great at run blocking. Dax Milne (1,012 yards, 7 TD) is one of the best receivers in the country and he can do it all as a big part of getting the ball down the field as well as the screen game. This will be one of the tougher defenses BYU has faced and it could be a challenge to pick up a rhythm after struggling last week.

The Aztecs don’t have the firepower to keep it close with this BYU team. While the Aztecs have a solid defense, they aren’t great against the run and can be susceptible to the deep ball. I see this one staying close for about a quarter and a half before BYU takes control and slowly stretches the lead out to 20+. The Aztecs aren’t going to have much offensive success if any at all and BYU is the bet to make here.

This is a high number for a SDSU game and a very low number for a BYU one. The Cougars defense is going to shut the Aztecs down and I expect somewhere around 7-10 points. BYU will have plenty of success offensively, but it won’t be a game where they lay 40+ points. The under is the bet to make here, though it’s a scary one.