San Diego State Aztecs vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Picks

The 4-0 San Diego State Aztecs will go on the road Thursday night to face off with the 3-1 Arizona State Sun Devils at 10:00 PM ET in Desert Financial Arena. The Sun Devils come in as 2.5-point road favorites and we’re expecting plenty of points with a 142.5 over/under. These two teams play far different basketball and it’ll be interesting to see how the squads adapt. Let’s dive into how this one will go down and who will end up covering the spread. Make sure to check out the rest of my NCAAB Picks and Predictions for the upcoming week of games.

• Aztecs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games following three or more consecutive home games.
• Sun Devils are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
• Over is 6-1 in Aztecs last 7 games following an ATS loss.
• Over is 4-0 in Sun Devils last 4 games as a home favorite.

The San Diego State Aztecs moved to 4-0 with a 65-60 win over Pepperdine in a game that was close throughout. The Aztecs shot just 10% from three and turned it over 15 times. They’re a team that leans on their defense as both of their leading-scorers average just 12 points per game. Senior guard Jordan Schakel and forward Matt Mitchell lead a bunch of 11 guys that average at least 13 minutes per game. 

The Aztecs must play solid defense here and they can’t constantly turn the ball over. They don’t have the offensive firepower to match Arizona State and must play lockdown defense from start to finish as an early deficit could spell doom. This team relies on their defense and they’ll have four different guys to slow down that can drop 20+ points on any given night.

The Sun Devils moved to 3-1 on the year with an 80-72 win over the California Bears. Their sole loss came to the Villanova Wildcats and all three victories have been over solid opponents. They’re led by senior PG Remy Martin, who is a top-10 contender for Naismith National Player of the Year and the soul of this team. This is a team that will look to outscore their opponents as they aren’t very stout defensively.

Freshman John Christopher has burst onto the scene with averages of 17.5 points and 4.3 rebounds through the first four games. He’s been a big help to Martin, who can’t do it alone offensively. Junior guard Alonzo Verge (15.0 pts, 5.5 reb, 3.0 ast) and freshman big-man Marcus Bagley (13 pts, 5.8 reb) are elite role players and either can put up 20+ points if Martin and Christopher have an off-night. This is a talented offensive team, but they have to be able to slow San Diego State down at some point.

Arizona State is a team I am extremely high on this season and the emergence of John Christopher and Marcus Bagley has been huge. The San Diego Aztecs aren’t going to make anything easy, but I think the Sun Devils force SDSU to push the pace as they will have to in order to keep up. I like the Arizona State offense to wear the Aztecs down and win this game by at least a few points. This line opened up at close to five and is down to two. Jump on Arizona State before it goes back the other direction.

This is all comes down to which team can control the pace of this ballgame. If San Diego State is able to slow Arizona State down, the under will hit with ease. I just don’t think that will happen. The Sun Devils play at a torrid pace and the Aztecs will have to push it if they want to keep up. That puts me on the over, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes way over. This is a low number for Arizona State and I wouldn’t be surprised to see SDSU get out of their comfort zone and run here. The over is the only bet worth making.