Rublev vs Korda – ATP Miami Betting Picks

March 31, 2021

Rublev vs Korda is not a quarterfinal match we expected heading into the ATP Miami Masters. But the young American has made a great run to this point and has a chance to prove himself against one of the best players on tour in Rublev. In this edition of tennis picks, we look at this battle between Rublev and Korda and give our best bet for this surprising showdown in South Florida.

Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Korda

Rublev vs Korda Pick: Rublev -1.5 sets (-132)
The Pick: Rublev -1.5 sets (-132)

Heading into Rublev vs Korda, Andrey Rublev has yet to drop a set in Miami this week. The Russian has taken out Tennys Sandgren, Marton Fucsovics and Marin Cilic in a combined six sets to love. Even more impressive is how he has taken care of business in straight sets. Rublev has faced just one break point in the tournament thus far, saving that lone break point against Fucsovics.

One reason for his success this week has been his improvement in getting his first serve in play. Over the last 12 months on tour, Rublev has had a first serve percentage of just under 60%. This week, he has yet to have a match where he has failed to get at least 65% of his first serves into play. That extra five to eight percent he has enjoyed this week has been a massive boost, and could make him a threat to win at the highest levels if he can maintain it.

Sebastian Korda wasn’t expected to reach this Rublev vs Korda quarterfinal, but he is absolutely deserving of his place. After defeating Radu Albot in the first round, the American has rattled off consecutive victories over Fabio Fognini, Aslan Karatsev and Diego Schwartzman. Now in his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal, Korda will look to pull another upset against arguably the hottest player on tour today.

For Korda, the question in this match will not be if he can achieve the level necessary to compete with Rublev. He has shown this week that he has that kind of tennis in him. The question instead will be whether or not he can sustain that level of tennis after playing so well throughout this week. Against his toughest test yet, that might be too much to ask for the 20-year old.

This is the first time that Rublev and Korda have met on a tennis court in their careers. Rublev is the deserved favorite not just based on their previous experiences, but based on his recent form as well. Since being knocked out of the Australian Open by Daniil Medvedev, Rublev has lost just five sets in 13 completed matches. Four of those sets came in semifinal losses to Roberto Bautista-Agut in Doha and Aslan Karatsev in Dubai.

In this match, expect Andrey Rublev to keep his red-hot form in tact by winning in straight sets. He has only lost one set in the 11 matches he has won since the Australian Open, and Korda stealing one off of him here would be a real surprise. Laying 1.5 sets with Rublev does require laying a little bit of juice at -132, but that price is worth it to back arguably the best player on tour since Melbourne.

Tennis Betting FAQ

How did Bautista-Agut beat Medvedev?

Roberto Bautista-Agut simply tested Daniil Medvedev’s patience and was rewarded for it. Medvedev didn’t seem entirely invested in his match with Bautista-Agut, whether it was due to physical or mental fatigue. But the high-margin tennis that RBA played in that match clearly frustrated Medvedev who was unable to power the ball through the Spaniard on the slow surface in Miami.

Who will win between Tsitsipas and Hurkacz?

Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be considered the heavy favorite to knock out Hubert Hurkacz in route to a potential semifinal matchup with Rublev. The Greek player may be the only one close to Rublev in terms of form after the Australian Open. He should be able to force Hurkacz out of his comfort zone, which is when the Polish player tends to lose control of his game.

Who is the tournament favorite now?

The current favorite to win the tournament is Stefanos Tsitsipas, though Andrey Rublev has virtually the same odds depending on which sportsbook you look at. Roberto Bautista-Agut and Jannik Sinner aren’t far behind, by virtue of being one round further along than Rublev and Tsitsipas at this point in the tournament. But the Greek and Russian are definitely considered the most likely to win the Miami Masters.

Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is a sports writer and broadcaster from Albany, NY. He has covered sports betting and the gambling industry since 2013.