Ricky Turcios vs Brady Hiestand Prediciton
August 26, 2021
✅ Hiestand's striking needs work before he will be a true threat at the UFC level.
✅ Turcios grappling is at a level to counteract the strength and gameplan of Hiestand.
Ricky Turcios -165 vs Brady Hiestand
Fight is at 135 lbs and is +125 to end inside the distance.
✅ This should be a fun TUF finale, with a young fighter with a big ceiling taking on a more advanced current fighter. Brady Hiestand is the young fighter that brings a grappling heavy game plan. The Michael Chiesa protégé does many of the same things that Chiesa does, and that comes with ample size for the weight class. His striking is very much a work in progress and it will be his undoing in this particular fight. While he can be an imposing wrestler, attempting to force control, he is facing an extremely competent BJJ fighter that will not put himself in bad positions. If Hiestand is to be competitive in this fight, it would likely mean having to settle for being in full guard if he is to land takedowns, and staying safe while in top control. He is going to have a very hard time in the striking portions of this fight.
✅ Ricky Turcios is a much more advanced fighter than Hiestand at this point of their careers. The biggest difference comes in the striking as Turcios is simply levels above and far more deceptive. He will land much more volume and the cleaner and more effective strikes. He has sound takedown defense and high end BJJ that will keep him from being controlled for long periods. I also believe him the fighter to threaten more dangerous submissions, even if he is the fighter on his back. He will also have the better gas tank, and the longer the fight goes, the more it will work out for Turcios.
✅ Turcios will be able to neutralize the strength of Hiestand and will be able to dictate his own game plan. Turcios is simply the more leveled up fighter at this juncture of their respective careers. That won’t be the case for too long, but it does give us a value in betting Turcios.