Rafa Garcia vs Chris Gruetzemacher Prediction

July 29, 2021

Rafa Garcia -280 vs Chris Gruetzemacher

Fight is at 155 lbs and is -110 to end inside the distance. 

Betting Pick: Garcia ITD +150

✅ What a night when we get to bet against Chris Gruetzemacher and Jason Witt on the same night. Gruetzemacher is one of the worst the UFC lightweight division has to offer. His wins in the promiotion were against the completely aged and non competitive version of Joe Lauzon and against a TUF castmate that never got a fight in the UFC. Gruetzemacher has only been given four fights since that TUF season in 2015, and has been finished in all three of his losses. Gruetzemacher had no advantages against any opponent in any of his losses and it is no different in this matchup. Gruetzemacher is outclassed once again and we will see him break once again. 

✅ Rafa Garcia may be somewhat overlooked this week as he is just 0-1 in the promotion, but no shame in his debut loss to Nasrat Haqparast. All signs point to the promotion wanting to get him on track, and for good reason. I don’t know that Garcia has a championship in the promotion, but he should be a main stay and will have multiple wins. Garcia has a complete skill set and will have an advantage in every area of this fight. He is going to push forward from the opening second and pressure and ultimately break Gruetzemacher. It might be with strikes, it might be taking him down and breaking him down there, but it is going to be a completely one sided affair. Garcia will break Gruetzemacher and will earn a finish at some point in this fight. The true variable is only how long Gruetzemacher will be able to mentally stay with the beating he is going to take. 

✅ The ITD line of +150 on Garcia is as attractive as any in recent memory. Gruetzemacher has not had a fight hit the 11 minute mark since 2015 and that would be about the maximum amount of time it will take for Garcia to end this fight. 

Betting Pick: Garcia ITD +150
TJ Calkins
TJ Calkins was raised in a gambling loving household. He knew how to handicap horse races and follow line movements well before his tenth birthday. While sports betting remained a passion into adulthood, poker and Daily Fantasy Sports also became passions and remain as such today.